This Eliteserien clash sees second-placed Tromso host ninth-placed Valerenga at Romssa Arena. The home side are clear favourites given their lofty league position and strong home record, but the statistical model suggests a much tighter contest than the standings imply.
Form Analysis: Tromso have drawn their last two matches and have a modest 54% win rate overall, scoring just 0.8 goals per game in their last five. Valerenga, despite a lower win rate (36%), have been more prolific in attack (1.6 goals per game) but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five outings. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, with Tromso conceding 1.4 per game and Valerenga 1.6.
Key Factors: The head-to-head record is remarkably balanced – Tromso have won four of the last ten meetings, Valerenga three, with three draws. However, Tromso's home advantage is significant: they have lost only once at home this season (5W-2D-1L). The API-Football model gives Valerenga a slight edge in overall strength (50.7% vs 49.3%) and a clear advantage in attack (67% vs 33%), which contradicts the baseline probabilities that heavily favour Tromso. This divergence creates uncertainty.
Conclusion: Tromso's superior league position and home form make them the logical favourites, but Valerenga's attacking threat and the model's close overall rating suggest the visitors can cause problems. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, but a draw or even an away upset would not be surprising given the statistical evidence.
