Based on the data, New York Red Bulls are the clear favorites to win this MLS clash at Subaru Park. The away side's superior form, higher league position, and stronger overall team comparison outweigh Philadelphia Union's historical head-to-head advantage.
Form Analysis: New York Red Bulls arrive in excellent form with a 4-match unbeaten streak (WDWWL), while Philadelphia Union have lost four of their last five (LDLLD). The Red Bulls average 1.8 goals scored per game, compared to Philadelphia's poor 7% win rate. The momentum is heavily in favor of the visitors.
Key Factors: The most decisive factor is the stark contrast in recent form and league standings. New York sit 5th with 22 points, while Philadelphia languish in 15th with just 7 points. Additionally, the API-Football model gives the Red Bulls a 53.7% overall advantage and an 83% form rating. Although Philadelphia have dominated the head-to-head historically (6 wins in last 10 meetings), their current struggles make that trend unreliable. Injuries are minimal for both sides, with no confirmed key absentees.
Conclusion: The data strongly supports a New York Red Bulls victory. Philadelphia's home record (0 wins in 6) and poor form make them vulnerable, while the Red Bulls' attacking threat and defensive solidity should prove decisive. A draw is possible given the H2H history, but the away win is the most likely outcome.
