Based on the data, Cienciano is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win. The market probabilities are nearly even, but Cienciano's strong form and home advantage support a deviation towards them.
Form Analysis: Cienciano has a 5-game winning streak (WWWWW) with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, while Atletico-MG has a mixed form (WWLWL) with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Cienciano's 100% form rating and 75% attack rating in API comparison indicate superior recent performance.
Key Factors: 1) Cienciano's perfect recent form and home advantage (rating 0.55) provide momentum. 2) Atletico-MG has three doubtful players (Junior Santos, J. Alonso, Maycon), potentially weakening their squad. 3) Head-to-head history shows no wins for either team in the last 5 meetings (0 wins each, 2 draws), suggesting a tight contest but favoring Cienciano's current form.
Conclusion: The data supports Cienciano as the more likely winner, with probabilities adjusted from market values to reflect their form and injury advantages, while keeping within allowed deviations.
