Based on the data, a draw or away win is most likely, with Alianza Valledupar having a slight edge. The market probabilities are nearly equal, but the API-Football model strongly favors Alianza Valledupar or a draw, and statistical comparisons support this.
Form Analysis: Llaneros are on a 4-game unbeaten streak (WDDDL) but have scored only 0.8 goals per game on average and failed to score in 2 of their last 5. Alianza Valledupar has won 3 of their last 5 (WDLWW), with a better defense (0.6 goals conceded per game, 3 clean sheets in last 5) and higher form rating (63% vs 38%).
Key Factors: 1) Alianza Valledupar's defensive strength with 3 clean sheets in last 5 games. 2) Head-to-head dominance: Alianza Valledupar has won the last 2 meetings (100% win rate). 3) API-Football overall comparison favors Alianza Valledupar (58.4% vs 42.0%).
Conclusion: The data indicates Alianza Valledupar is slightly favored to win or draw, supported by better form, defense, and H2H record, aligning with the model prediction.
