Based on the data, Guingamp is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win. The market probabilities are nearly equal (33% home, 33% draw, 34% away), but the API-Football model strongly favors Guingamp (45% home win, 45% draw, 10% away win), and Guingamp has better form and standings. Adjusting within 10% of market odds, Guingamp is given a 35% probability, draw 33%, and Bastia 32%.
Form Analysis: Guingamp has form of 63% and recent results LLWDD, with 2 consecutive losses but better overall performance (10th place, 39 points, -3 GD). Bastia has form of 38% and recent results DDLDL, with 2 draws but poor standings (18th place, 21 points, -16 GD). Guingamp averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Bastia averages 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Key Factors: 1) API-Football model strongly predicts Guingamp win or draw with low expected goals (both -1.5). 2) Guingamp has superior form (63% vs 38%) and defense (58% vs 42%). 3) No significant injuries reported, and home advantage rating is 0.55.
Conclusion: Data supports Guingamp as slight favorites, with a draw also likely. The market odds are balanced, but statistical models and form favor Guingamp, leading to a predicted home win or draw outcome.
