Based on the data, the match is predicted to be a draw, with Virtus Entella having a slight edge for an away win. The market probabilities show a near-even split (33% home win, 33% draw, 34% away win), while the API-Football model strongly favors a draw or away win (10% home win, 45% draw, 45% away win), predicting Virtus Entella as the winner and advising a double chance for draw or away win. Following the rules, I prioritize the market probabilities but adjust slightly towards the API model's draw emphasis, as the odds are close and recent form supports a tight contest.
Form Analysis: Bari's form is WLLWL with 1 win streak, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, and no clean sheets in the last 5. Virtus Entella's form is LWLLW with 1 loss streak, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with 2 clean sheets. Both teams failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games, indicating offensive inconsistency. The standings show Bari in 17th and Virtus Entella in 16th, both with 34 points and similar goal differences, reinforcing the closeness.
Key Factors: 1. The API-Football comparison data shows Virtus Entella with better defense (65% vs 35%) and H2H strength (62% vs 38%), supporting their edge. 2. Head-to-head history shows 1 Bari win, 2 draws, and 2 Virtus Entella wins in the last 5 meetings, indicating a balanced rivalry. 3. No significant injuries or suspensions are reported, so no major deviations from odds are warranted.
Conclusion: The data suggests a closely contested match with a high likelihood of a draw or narrow away win, aligning with the market and API model. Bari's home advantage (rating 0.55) is moderate but not decisive, and both teams' inconsistent form points to a low-scoring affair.
