Based on the data, Riga is predicted to have a slight edge, but a draw is a strong possibility given the balanced odds and form.
Form Analysis: Grobiņa has a form of WLW with 2 goals for and 2 against in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 2 clean sheets. Riga has a form of WWL with 7 goals for and 5 against, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, and no clean sheets. Both teams are on a 1-win streak, but Riga shows slightly better attacking output.
Key Factors: 1) Head-to-head history heavily favors Riga with 7 wins in the last 8 meetings, indicating a psychological and tactical advantage. 2) The API-Football model predicts Riga as the winner with 45% probability for both away win and draw, suggesting statistical support for Riga's edge. 3) Home advantage for Grobiņa is rated 0.55, which is moderate but not strong enough to overcome Riga's historical dominance.
Conclusion: The data supports Riga as the favorite due to superior H2H record and slightly better form, but Grobiņa's home advantage and defensive solidity make a draw plausible. Probabilities are adjusted from market odds to reflect these factors.
