Based on the data, Cusco is predicted to have a slight edge, with a 35% probability of winning, while Sporting Cristal has 32% and a draw at 33%. The market probabilities show a very close match (33% home, 33% draw, 34% away), and the API-Football model strongly favors Cusco or a draw (10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, predicted winner Cusco). Given no significant injuries, recent form slightly favors Cusco, and the API model supports an away advantage, the prediction leans towards Cusco, but with caution due to the tight odds.
Form Analysis: Sporting Cristal's form is LLWWL (2 wins, 3 losses in last 5), with 16 goals for and 13 against, averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, and a current 1-win streak. Cusco's form is WWLWL (3 wins, 2 losses in last 5), with 12 goals for and 10 against, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, and a current 1-loss streak. Cusco has a slightly better recent record and higher form rating (60% vs 40% from API comparison).
Key Factors: 1) Market odds and API model both indicate Cusco as a slight favorite or draw candidate, with API overall rating at 53.2% for Cusco vs 46.8% for Sporting Cristal. 2) No significant injuries or suspensions reported, so no major deviations from odds. 3) Cusco's better form and higher league standing (6th place, 13 points) compared to Sporting Cristal (9th place, 11 points) provide marginal support.
Conclusion: The data suggests a closely contested match, with Cusco having a minor advantage based on form and statistical models, but the odds indicate high uncertainty, making a draw or away win most plausible.
