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  1. Home
  2. Premiership
  3. Aberdeen vs ST Mirren

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren

Result • Premiership·Aberdeen·ST Mirren

Premiership
Premiership
Oct 17, 2026
14:00
medium Confidence
WINNER
Aberdeen

Aberdeen

Home
Final Score
3-1
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
3-1
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.80
X3.50
24.00
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
medium Confidence
ST Mirren

ST Mirren

Away
Odds
11.80
X3.50
24.00
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Win Probabilities
51%
Aberdeen
30%
Draw
19%
ST Mirren
Home1.8051%
Draw3.5030%
Away4.0019%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

Aberdeen are narrow favourites at home against a ST Mirren side on a four-game losing streak, though the visitors' strong head-to-head record offers hope. The main risk is ST Mirren's historical dominance in this fixture, which could inspire an upset.

Our AI model analyzes this Premiership fixture between Aberdeen and ST Mirren using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Aberdeen a 51% win probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and ST Mirren a 19% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 58%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 58%

Match Events

  1. Goal: Brad LyonsAssist: Connor Patrick Ronan
    2'
    Goal: Brad LyonsAberdeen · Assist: Connor Patrick Ronan
  2. 31'
    Yellow Card: Ryan CarrST Mirren
    Yellow Card: Ryan Carr
  3. 42'
    Goal: Eseosa SuleST Mirren · Assist: Killian Phillips
    Goal: Eseosa SuleAssist: Killian Phillips
  4. Substitution: Stuart ArmstrongOut: Connor Patrick Ronan
    45'
    Substitution: Stuart ArmstrongAberdeen · Out: Connor Patrick Ronan
  5. Substitution: Tony YoganeOut: Brad Lyons
    45'
    Substitution: Tony YoganeAberdeen · Out: Brad Lyons
  6. 56'
    Yellow Card: Paul NsioST Mirren
    Yellow Card: Paul Nsio
  7. VAR: VAR · Penalty confirmedTony Yogane
    58'
    VAR: VAR · Penalty confirmedAberdeen · Tony Yogane
  8. Missed penalty: Kevin NisbetMissed penalty
    58'
    Missed penalty: Kevin NisbetAberdeen · Missed penalty
  9. Goal: Kevin Nisbet
    58'
    Goal: Kevin NisbetAberdeen
  10. 59'
    Substitution: Samuel Antonio Ramos LinaresST Mirren · Out: Luke Thomas
    Substitution: Samuel Antonio Ramos LinaresOut: Luke Thomas
  11. 67'
    Substitution: Fraser TaylorST Mirren · Out: Paul Nsio
    Substitution: Fraser TaylorOut: Paul Nsio
  12. Substitution: Ayoub MoulouaOut: Toyosi Olusanya
    71'
    Substitution: Ayoub MoulouaAberdeen · Out: Toyosi Olusanya
  13. Goal: Ayoub MoulouaAssist: Afeez Aremu Olalekan
    72'
    Goal: Ayoub MoulouaAberdeen · Assist: Afeez Aremu Olalekan
  14. 74'
    Substitution: Jake YoungST Mirren · Out: Eseosa Sule
    Substitution: Jake YoungOut: Eseosa Sule
  15. Substitution: Emmanuel GyamfiOut: Lewis Smith
    76'
    Substitution: Emmanuel GyamfiAberdeen · Out: Lewis Smith
  16. Yellow Card: Stuart Armstrong
    77'
    Yellow Card: Stuart ArmstrongAberdeen
  17. Substitution: Findlay MarshallOut: Kevin Nisbet
    90+3'
    Substitution: Findlay MarshallAberdeen · Out: Kevin Nisbet
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Strengths · Weaknesses

Aberdeen

  • Stronger attacking output (71% vs 29%)
  • Better defensive record (69% vs 31%)
  • Inconsistent recent form (LDWDL)
  • Poor head-to-head record against ST Mirren

ST Mirren

  • Dominant head-to-head record (7 wins in last 5)
  • Ability to score goals despite recent losses (8 goals in 5)
  • Four consecutive losses
  • Leaky defense (14 goals conceded in 5)

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
51%
API-Football
45%
48%
Aberdeen483815

Moderate agreement on home win (48%).

AI AnalysisMedium Confidence

Based on the structured data, Aberdeen are the narrow favourites to win this Premiership encounter at Pittodrie. The bookmaker-implied probabilities give Aberdeen a clear edge, and the API-Football model also predicts an Aberdeen win or draw, reinforcing the home side's advantage.

Form Analysis: Aberdeen's recent form (LDWDL) is mixed, but they have shown attacking promise with 7 goals in their last 5 matches. ST Mirren, on the other hand, are in a poor run with four consecutive losses (LLLLW), scoring only 8 goals and conceding 14 in that span. Their defensive record is concerning, and they have failed to score in three of their last five games. Aberdeen's home record (1W-1D-2L) is not exceptional, but they face a struggling opponent.

Key Factors: The head-to-head record heavily favours ST Mirren (7 wins in last 5 meetings), which is a psychological boost for the visitors. However, Aberdeen's superior form and home advantage, combined with ST Mirren's losing streak, tilt the balance. The weather is neutral, and no significant injuries are reported. Aberdeen's attack (71% compared to ST Mirren's 29%) and defense (69% vs 31%) are statistically stronger.

Conclusion: The data points to an Aberdeen win, though the H2H record introduces uncertainty. A narrow victory for the home side is the most likely outcome, with a draw as the secondary possibility.

Statistical ContextAberdeen

Combo Double chance : Aberdeen or draw and -3.5 goals

Team Comparison

AI Powered
AberdeenST Mirren
53%Strength46%
71%Attacking Potential29%
69%Defensive Potential31%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
29%H2H Strength71%
33%Goals H2H67%
53%Wins the Game46%

More information

Premiership predicted line-ups: Gameweek 127/7Head-to-headAberdeen – ST MirrenInjuriesAberdeenInjuriesST MirrenLive scores

Statistical Context

Aberdeen

LLLDW
  • LOct 28, 26H · Falkirk0-1
  • LOct 24, 26A · Dundee Utd3-2
  • LOct 11, 26H · ST Johnstone0-1
  • DSep 19, 26A · Hibernian1-1
  • WSep 15, 26A · Motherwell0-4

ST Mirren

DWLLL
  • DOct 28, 26H · Hibernian1-1
  • WOct 24, 26H · Dundee2-1
  • LOct 10, 26A · Heart Of Midlothian5-0
  • LSep 19, 26H · Dundee Utd0-3
  • LSep 9, 26A · Rangers1-0

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
6Falkirk11+115WWWLD
7ST Mirren11-714DWLLL
8ST Johnstone11-413DLDWD
9Aberdeen11-211LLWLD
10Motherwell11-79DLLLL

Head to Head

2
Aberdeen
1
Draws
7
ST Mirren
  • May 12, 26Aberdeen – ST Mirren0-2
  • Apr 4, 26ST Mirren – Aberdeen2-0
  • Dec 3, 25Aberdeen – ST Mirren3-3
  • Oct 18, 25ST Mirren – Aberdeen0-1
  • May 3, 25ST Mirren – Aberdeen1-0

Season Statistics — 2026

AberdeenST Mirren
Played1110
Goals Scored1211
Goals Conceded1418
Avg Scored1.11.1
Avg Conceded1.31.8
Clean Sheets23

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

AberdeenST Mirren
Over 2.5 Goals4/10—
Both Teams Scored5/10—
Clean Sheets4/10—

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren — Match Analysis

Aberdeen are narrow favourites at home against a ST Mirren side on a four-game losing streak, though the visitors' strong head-to-head record offers hope. The main risk is ST Mirren's historical dominance in this fixture, which could inspire an upset.

Based on the structured data, Aberdeen are the narrow favourites to win this Premiership encounter at Pittodrie. The bookmaker-implied probabilities give Aberdeen a clear edge, and the API-Football model also predicts an Aberdeen win or draw, reinforcing the home side's advantage.

Form Analysis: Aberdeen's recent form (LDWDL) is mixed, but they have shown attacking promise with 7 goals in their last 5 matches. ST Mirren, on the other hand, are in a poor run with four consecutive losses (LLLLW), scoring only 8 goals and conceding 14 in that span. Their defensive record is concerning, and they have failed to score in three of their last five games. Aberdeen's home record (1W-1D-2L) is not exceptional, but they face a struggling opponent.

Key Factors: The head-to-head record heavily favours ST Mirren (7 wins in last 5 meetings), which is a psychological boost for the visitors. However, Aberdeen's superior form and home advantage, combined with ST Mirren's losing streak, tilt the balance. The weather is neutral, and no significant injuries are reported. Aberdeen's attack (71% compared to ST Mirren's 29%) and defense (69% vs 31%) are statistically stronger.

Conclusion: The data points to an Aberdeen win, though the H2H record introduces uncertainty. A narrow victory for the home side is the most likely outcome, with a draw as the secondary possibility.

Win Probabilities: Aberdeen: 51% · Draw: 30% · ST Mirren: 19%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 54% · Under 2.5: 46% · BTTS: 58%

H2H: Aberdeen wins: 2 · Draws: 1 · ST Mirren wins: 7

Form (latest first): Aberdeen: LLLDW · ST Mirren: DWLLL

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Premiership

Premiership

Scotland15 · Upcoming Fixtures
PremiershipScotland
Kilmarnock
Oct 3115:00
ST Johnstone
13.7027%
X3.1332%
22.4441%
PremiershipScotland
Motherwell
Oct 3115:00
ST Mirren
11.9651%
X3.4529%
25.0020%
PremiershipScotland
Falkirk
Nov 113:00
Celtic
110.0010%
X5.2619%
21.4171%
PremiershipScotland
ST Johnstone
Nov 715:00
Dundee
Early projection
12.8635%
X3.5728%
22.7037%
PremiershipScotland
Dundee Utd
Nov 715:00
Motherwell
Early projection
12.1746%
X4.1724%
23.3330%
PremiershipScotland
Aberdeen
Nov 717:45
Hibernian
Early projection
11.9651%
X4.5522%
23.7027%
PremiershipScotland
ST Mirren
Nov 720:00
Rangers
Early projection
14.1724%
X5.0020%
21.7956%
PremiershipScotland
Heart Of Midlothian
Nov 815:00
Falkirk
Early projection
11.3972%
X6.6715%
27.6913%
PremiershipScotland
Celtic
Nov 816:00
Kilmarnock
Early projection
11.2083%
X8.3312%
220.005%
PremiershipScotland
Celtic
Nov 2115:00
ST Mirren
Early projection
11.2282%
X8.3312%
216.676%
PremiershipScotland
Hibernian
Nov 2115:00
Dundee Utd
Early projection
13.1332%
X4.0025%
22.3343%
PremiershipScotland
Kilmarnock
Nov 2115:00
Aberdeen
Early projection
13.1332%
X3.8526%
22.3842%
PremiershipScotland
Falkirk
Nov 2115:00
ST Johnstone
Early projection
12.7836%
X3.5728%
22.7836%
PremiershipScotland
Dundee
Nov 2117:45
Heart Of Midlothian
Early projection
12.5040%
X3.7027%
23.0333%
PremiershipScotland
Motherwell
Nov 2120:00
Rangers
Early projection
16.2516%
X5.8817%
21.4967%

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