Based on the data, Valladolid is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win. The market probabilities are nearly even, but the API-Football model strongly favors Valladolid (45% home win, 45% draw, 10% away win), and Real Sociedad II is on a 4-game losing streak, providing concrete evidence to adjust from the odds baseline.
Form Analysis: Valladolid's form is LWLLW with 1.4 avg goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Real Sociedad II is LLLLW with 0.8 avg goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Real Sociedad II has lost 4 consecutive games, indicating poor momentum.
Key Factors: 1) Real Sociedad II's 4-game losing streak supports a deviation from odds. 2) API-Football model predicts Valladolid as winner with high probability for win or draw. 3) Standings show minimal difference (1 point, 2 places), but Valladolid has better recent form and home advantage (rating 0.55).
Conclusion: Data suggests Valladolid is more likely to win or draw, with a home win slightly favored due to form and model support, aligning with adjusted probabilities within 10% of market odds.
