Based on the data, Mirassol is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win, supported by the API-Football model and H2H dominance, despite poor recent form.
Form Analysis: Mirassol has lost all last 5 matches (LLLLL) with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, and failed to score in 3 of those games. Chapecoense-sc has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in last 5 (DLLDD) with 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, and failed to score in 2 games. Both teams are on poor form, but Chapecoense-sc has slightly better recent results.
Key Factors: 1) H2H history strongly favors Mirassol with 4 wins in last 5 meetings and no draws or losses. 2) API-Football model predicts Mirassol as winner with 45% home win probability and 45% draw probability, suggesting a high chance of Mirassol not losing. 3) Chapecoense-sc has 5 players out due to injuries/suspensions (all doubtful), which could impact their performance more than Mirassol's 1 doubtful player.
Conclusion: The market odds are nearly even, but API model and H2H support Mirassol. Adjusting slightly from market probabilities due to H2H and injuries, Mirassol has a small advantage for a win or draw, with a draw being very plausible given both teams' poor form and similar odds.
