Based on the data, Le Mans is predicted to win this match. The market probabilities show a slight edge for Le Mans (34% away win vs. 33% home win and 33% draw), while the API-Football model strongly favors Le Mans with 45% away win probability and predicts them as the winner. Le Mans's superior form, standings, and statistical metrics support this outcome, though Bastia's home advantage and H2H record provide some counterbalance.
Form Analysis: Bastia is in poor form with a DDLDL streak in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, and they are 18th in the league with 21 points and a -16 GD. Le Mans is in excellent form with a WWWWD streak, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, and they are 3rd in the league with 53 points and a +16 GD. The API-Football comparison shows Le Mans with 81% form, 79% attack, and 63.8% overall strength.
Key Factors: 1. Le Mans's strong recent form (5 unbeaten streak) and high attack rating (79%) give them an offensive edge. 2. Bastia's poor defensive record (42% defense rating) and low form (19%) make them vulnerable. 3. The standings context shows a large gap (15 places, 32 points difference), reinforcing Le Mans's superiority.
Conclusion: The data indicates Le Mans is more likely to win due to their better form, higher league position, and statistical advantages, though Bastia's home advantage and H2H record suggest it may not be a decisive victory.
