Based on the data, the match is extremely close with no clear favorite, but Alaves has a slight edge due to home advantage and recent form, aligning with the API-Football model's prediction of Alaves as the winner.
Form Analysis: Alaves is on a 3-game unbeaten streak (DWD), while Mallorca has a 1-game win streak (WLWDL). Alaves averages 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in their last 5 matches, compared to Mallorca's 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Both teams have no clean sheets in their last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors: 1. The market probabilities are nearly equal (33% home, 33% draw, 34% away), but the API-Football model favors Alaves with 35% home win probability and predicts a double chance (Alaves or draw). 2. Alaves has home advantage with a rating of 0.55 and a current unbeaten streak, providing momentum. 3. Head-to-head history shows Mallorca with 4 wins to Alaves' 2 in the last 5 meetings, but with 3 draws, indicating a tendency for close matches.
Conclusion: The data suggests a tight contest with Alaves slightly favored due to home form and statistical model support, but a draw is highly plausible given the even odds and H2H draw frequency.
