Based on the data, Athletic Club is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win, as supported by the API-Football model and home advantage, despite close market odds.
Form Analysis: Athletic Club has form LWLLD with 0.4 avg goals scored and 1.6 conceded, failing to score in 4 of last 5 games, indicating offensive struggles. Osasuna has form DWLDL with 1.6 avg goals scored and 1.4 conceded, showing better recent scoring but inconsistent results. Both teams have similar standings (11th vs 9th, 38 points each).
Key Factors: 1) API-Football model strongly favors Athletic Club (45% win, 45% draw vs 10% away win) and predicts win or draw. 2) Home advantage rating of 0.55 supports Athletic Club. 3) Head-to-head history shows 3 wins each and 4 draws in last 5 meetings, indicating a balanced rivalry with draw tendency.
Conclusion: The data suggests Athletic Club is more likely to win or draw, with home advantage and model support outweighing poor recent form, leading to a predicted home win probability slightly above market odds.
