Based on the data, Valladolid is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge for a home win. The market probabilities are nearly equal, but the API-Football model strongly favors Valladolid (45% home win, 45% draw, 10% away win), and the API comparison shows Valladolid with a 54.8% overall strength advantage. This aligns with Valladolid's historical dominance in head-to-head matches (4 wins in last 5 meetings) and a slight home advantage rating of 0.55. However, the odds indicate a close match, so probabilities are adjusted slightly toward Valladolid while staying within 10% of market values.
Form Analysis: Both teams have similar recent form: Valladolid (LWLLW) and Zaragoza (LDWLW), each with a current loss streak. Valladolid averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in last 5 matches, while Zaragoza averages 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. Valladolid failed to score in 2 of last 5 games, indicating offensive inconsistency. Zaragoza has 2 clean sheets in last 5, showing defensive resilience. The standings show Valladolid in 17th place with 39 points and -8 GD, while Zaragoza is 19th with 34 points and -15 GD, giving Valladolid a slight edge in league position and goal difference.
Key Factors: 1. API-Football model strongly predicts Valladolid to win or draw (90% combined probability). 2. Head-to-head history favors Valladolid with 4 wins in last 5 meetings. 3. No significant injuries reported for either team, reducing deviation factors. These factors support a slight adjustment toward Valladolid from the market probabilities.
Conclusion: The data suggests Valladolid is more likely to win or draw, with a home win as the most probable outcome. The close market odds reflect the competitive nature, but statistical models and historical performance give Valladolid an edge. Probabilities are set at 35% home win, 33% draw, and 32% away win, staying within 10% of market values and summing to 100%.
