Based on the data, America de Cali is slightly favored to win, with a narrow edge over Tigre and a draw. The market probabilities show a very close match (33% home, 33% draw, 34% away), while the API-Football model strongly favors America de Cali or a draw (10% home, 45% draw, 45% away). Given the absence of significant injuries or extreme streaks, the prediction aligns with the slight away advantage indicated by the odds and model.
Form Analysis: Tigre's form is LWDDD, with 16 goals for and 12 against in the last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, and failing to score in 2 of 5 games. America de Cali's form is LWLDW, with 3 goals for and 2 against, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, and failing to score in 2 of 5 games. Both teams have a current draw streak of 1, but America de Cali has better defensive metrics with 2 clean sheets compared to Tigre's 0.
Key Factors: 1. The API-Football comparison shows America de Cali with superior form (80% vs 20%) and attack (75% vs 25%), while Tigre has better defense (67% vs 33%). 2. The expected goals data suggests low scoring, with home expected goals at -1.5 and away at -2.5, indicating a tight match. 3. No head-to-head history exists, so recent form and statistical comparisons are primary indicators.
Conclusion: The data points to a low-scoring match where America de Cali has a slight edge due to better recent form and attacking metrics, but Tigre's home advantage and defensive strength could lead to a draw. The probabilities reflect this balance, with a minor adjustment toward the away team based on the API model's stronger prediction.
