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  1. Home
  2. Copa Sudamericana
  3. Macara vs Alianza Atletico

Macara vs Alianza Atletico

Result • Copa Sudamericana·Macara·Alianza Atletico

Copa Sudamericana
Copa Sudamericana
May 22, 2026
02:00
high Confidence
DRAW
Macara

Macara

Home
Final Score
0-0
Predicted: 2-0
Final Score
0-0
Predicted: 2-0
Odds
11.38
X4.75
29.00
Stadium
Estadio Bellavista
high Confidence
DRAW
Alianza Atletico

Alianza Atletico

Away
Odds
11.38
X4.75
29.00
Stadium
Estadio Bellavista
Win Probabilities
64%
Macara
26%
Draw
10%
Alianza Atletico
Home1.3864%
Draw4.7526%
Away9.0010%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a clear path for Macara, as the stars align with form, home advantage, and historical dominance. Alianza Atletico faces an uphill battle.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa Sudamericana fixture between Macara and Alianza Atletico using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Macara a 64% win probability, a 26% chance of a draw, and Alianza Atletico a 10% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-0. Both teams to score probability: 35%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 35%

Match Events

  1. 7'
    Yellow Card: Román SuárezAlianza Atletico
    Yellow Card: Román Suárez
  2. Yellow Card: José Luis Marrufo
    44'
    Yellow Card: José Luis MarrufoMacara
  3. Yellow Card: Leonar Espinoza
    45+1'
    Yellow Card: Leonar EspinozaMacara
  4. 46'
    Substitution: José VillegasAlianza Atletico · Out: José Luján
    Substitution: José VillegasOut: José Luján
  5. 61'
    Substitution: German DiazAlianza Atletico · Out: Sergio Quiroga
    Substitution: German DiazOut: Sergio Quiroga
  6. 62'
    Substitution: Jorge del CastilloAlianza Atletico · Out: Jimmy Pérez
    Substitution: Jorge del CastilloOut: Jimmy Pérez
  7. Substitution: Jordán MohorOut: Jose Klinger
    67'
    Substitution: Jordán MohorMacara · Out: Jose Klinger
  8. Substitution: Jordano ZambranoOut: Leonar Espinoza
    67'
    Substitution: Jordano ZambranoMacara · Out: Leonar Espinoza
  9. Yellow Card: Luis Ayala
    72'
    Yellow Card: Luis AyalaMacara
  10. Substitution: Tommy ChambaOut: Matías Miranda
    82'
    Substitution: Tommy ChambaMacara · Out: Matías Miranda
  11. Substitution: Luca FerroOut: Franco Posse
    82'
    Substitution: Luca FerroMacara · Out: Franco Posse
  12. 86'
    Substitution: Ariel MuñozAlianza Atletico · Out: Franco Coronel
    Substitution: Ariel MuñozOut: Franco Coronel
  13. Substitution: Carlos CaicedoOut: Martin Tello
    90'
    Substitution: Carlos CaicedoMacara · Out: Martin Tello
  14. 90'
    Substitution: Cristian PenillaAlianza Atletico · Out: Mariano Barreda
    Substitution: Cristian PenillaOut: Mariano Barreda
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1M. Miranda vs Alianza defense: Miranda's creativity and goal threat will test a weak away backline.
2F. Posse vs Alianza midfield: Posse's assists and movement could unlock the defense.
3Macara defense vs Alianza attack: Macara's strong defense (70% rating) should contain Alianza's modest attack.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Macara

  • Strong defense (70% rating)
  • Excellent home form
  • Recent 1 loss streak
  • Limited key player depth

Alianza Atletico

  • Recent win in last match
  • Able to score (1.4 avg goals)
  • Poor form (LLLDW)
  • Weak defense (30% rating)

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
64%
API-Football
50%
57%
Macara57385

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (57%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Macara is heavily favored to win against Alianza Atletico based on odds-implied probability of 69% and strong statistical backing.

Form Analysis: Macara has scored 7 goals in last 5 matches with 2 clean sheets, while Alianza Atletico has conceded 7 goals and failed to score in 2 of last 5 games. Macara's recent form is DWWDW, while Alianza Atletico's is LLLDW, showing a clear momentum advantage for the home side.

Key Factors: Macara holds a perfect head-to-head record (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses) and enjoys a significant home advantage (rating 0.55). The API-Football comparison gives Macara 67% overall strength versus 33% for Alianza Atletico. Additionally, Alianza Atletico is 4th in standings with only 1 point and a -5 goal difference, while Macara leads with 8 points.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Macara victory. The odds, form, H2H, and standings align strongly in their favor.

Statistical ContextMacara

Double chance : Macara or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
MacaraAlianza Atletico
67%Strength33%
64%Attacking Potential36%
70%Defensive Potential30%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
100%H2H Strength50%
100%Goals H2H50%
67%Wins the Game33%
Head-to-head →Injuries · MacaraInjuries · Alianza AtleticoLive scores →

Statistical Context

Macara

WWLDL
  • WSep 19, 26A · Aucas1-2
  • WSep 13, 26H · Emelec1-0
  • LSep 5, 26A · Independiente del Valle3-1
  • DAug 20, 26H · Santos0-0
  • LAug 13, 26A · Santos2-1

Alianza Atletico

WLWWW
  • WSep 18, 26H · Comerciantes Unidos2-1
  • LSep 13, 26A · Atletico Grau3-1
  • WSep 4, 26H · UTC Cajamarca3-2
  • WAug 30, 26A · UCV Moquegua1-4
  • WAug 21, 26H · Sporting Cristal3-1

Head to Head

0
Macara
0
Draws
1
Alianza Atletico
  • May 1, 26Alianza Atletico – Macara0-2

Season Statistics — 2026

MacaraAlianza Atletico
Played827
Goals Scored840
Goals Conceded535
Avg Scored1.01.5
Avg Conceded0.61.3
Clean Sheets56

Macara vs Alianza Atletico — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a clear path for Macara, as the stars align with form, home advantage, and historical dominance. Alianza Atletico faces an uphill battle.

Macara is heavily favored to win against Alianza Atletico based on odds-implied probability of 69% and strong statistical backing.

Form Analysis: Macara has scored 7 goals in last 5 matches with 2 clean sheets, while Alianza Atletico has conceded 7 goals and failed to score in 2 of last 5 games. Macara's recent form is DWWDW, while Alianza Atletico's is LLLDW, showing a clear momentum advantage for the home side.

Key Factors: Macara holds a perfect head-to-head record (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses) and enjoys a significant home advantage (rating 0.55). The API-Football comparison gives Macara 67% overall strength versus 33% for Alianza Atletico. Additionally, Alianza Atletico is 4th in standings with only 1 point and a -5 goal difference, while Macara leads with 8 points.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Macara victory. The odds, form, H2H, and standings align strongly in their favor.

Win Probabilities: Macara: 64% · Draw: 26% · Alianza Atletico: 10%

Predicted Score: 2-0 (20.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 35%

H2H: Macara wins: 0 · Draws: 0 · Alianza Atletico wins: 1

Form (latest first): Macara: WWLDL · Alianza Atletico: WLWWW

  • M. Miranda vs Alianza defense: Miranda's creativity and goal threat will test a weak away backline.
  • F. Posse vs Alianza midfield: Posse's assists and movement could unlock the defense.
  • Macara defense vs Alianza attack: Macara's strong defense (70% rating) should contain Alianza's modest attack.

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Copa Sudamericana

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12.2245%
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13.0333%
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11.6461%
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Betting Tips

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