How accurate are our predictions?
Every prediction is locked in before kick-off and scored automatically after full time. The numbers on this page are computed from all settled predictions — wins and losses alike — and refresh every week. No cherry-picking, no screenshots of lucky days.
Updated August 17, 2026 · rolling 90-day window · 1248 settled predictions
Hit rates by market
Match result (1X2)
54.7%
Both teams to score
55%
Over/Under 2.5
57.1%
Exact score
13.1%
Benchmark: simply backing the betting-market favourite over the same matches would have hit 56.1%.
When we say it — does it happen?
Every top pick, grouped by the probability we stated. A well-calibrated model should win about as often as it says — read the last column against the first, losing bands included.
| Stated chance | Picks | Actually won |
|---|---|---|
| 30–34% | 30 | 30%-4 |
| 35–39% | 227 | 38.8%+1.7 |
| 40–44% | 257 | 45.5%+3.6 |
| 45–49% | 208 | 47.1%+0.1 |
| 50–54% | 162 | 61.1%+9.4 |
| 55–59% | 126 | 72.2%+15.3 |
| 60–64% | 96 | 72.9%+10.4 |
| 65–69% | 63 | 71.4%+4.6 |
| 70–74% | 40 | 77.5%+5.9 |
| 75–79% | 24 | 95.8%+19.5 |
How these numbers are made
Every prediction blends bookmaker odds, an AI reading of team news and form, and statistical models — anchored to the market so probabilities stay realistic.
Predictions are validated for internal consistency before publishing, and stored so they can't be changed after kick-off.
A weekly self-audit re-scores everything and re-fits our calibration when reality drifts from what we state. This page is generated from that audit.
What this page is not
It is not a promise. Football is volatile; past hit rates never guarantee future results, and even a well-calibrated 60% pick loses four times out of ten.
It is not betting advice. Betora is an analytics tool — if you bet, do it legally, responsibly and 18+ only.
FAQ
How is prediction accuracy measured?
Each prediction is stored before kick-off with its stated probabilities. After full time it is scored automatically against the real result — match outcome, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and exact score. The page shows the rolling hit rate over all settled predictions.
Is a ~55% hit rate on match results good?
Yes. With three possible outcomes, always backing the bookmaker favourite lands around 50–53%. Consistently beating that benchmark — and being honest about the probability of every pick — is what matters, not inflated claims of 90% winners.
How often are these numbers updated?
A scheduled audit re-computes everything weekly over a rolling window. The date at the top shows the last run.