How accurate are our predictions?
Every prediction is locked in before kick-off and scored automatically after full time. The numbers on this page are computed from all settled predictions — wins and losses alike — and refresh every week. No cherry-picking, no screenshots of lucky days.
Updated September 28, 2026 · rolling 90-day window · 4037 settled predictions
Hit rates by market
Match result (1X2)
52%
Both teams to score
54.9%
Over/Under 2.5
56.8%
Exact score
11.4%
Benchmark: simply backing the betting-market favourite over the same matches would have hit 52.1%.
When we say it — does it happen?
Every top pick, grouped by the probability we stated. A well-calibrated model should win about as often as it says — read the last column against the first, losing bands included.
| Stated chance | Picks | Actually won |
|---|---|---|
| 30–34% | 95 | 42.1%+8.1 |
| 35–39% | 455 | 41.5%+3.9 |
| 40–44% | 1260 | 41.7%+0.6 |
| 45–49% | 580 | 48.8%+1.8 |
| 50–54% | 569 | 52.5%+1 |
| 55–59% | 226 | 61.5%+4.7 |
| 60–64% | 410 | 69.8%+6.7 |
| 65–69% | 145 | 69%+2.2 |
| 70–74% | 126 | 73.8%+1.9 |
| 75–79% | 69 | 85.5%+8.8 |
| 80–84% | 90 | 84.4%+2.6 |
How these numbers are made
Every prediction blends bookmaker odds, an AI reading of team news and form, and statistical models — anchored to the market so probabilities stay realistic.
Predictions are validated for internal consistency before publishing, and stored so they can't be changed after kick-off.
A weekly self-audit re-scores everything and re-fits our calibration when reality drifts from what we state. This page is generated from that audit.
What this page is not
It is not a promise. Football is volatile; past hit rates never guarantee future results, and even a well-calibrated 60% pick loses four times out of ten.
It is not betting advice. Betora is an analytics tool — if you bet, do it legally, responsibly and 18+ only.
FAQ
How is prediction accuracy measured?
Each prediction is stored before kick-off with its stated probabilities. After full time it is scored automatically against the real result — match outcome, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 and exact score. The page shows the rolling hit rate over all settled predictions.
Is a ~55% hit rate on match results good?
Yes. With three possible outcomes, always backing the bookmaker favourite lands around 50–53%. Consistently beating that benchmark — and being honest about the probability of every pick — is what matters, not inflated claims of 90% winners.
How often are these numbers updated?
A scheduled audit re-computes everything weekly over a rolling window. The date at the top shows the last run.