Who Will Win Bundesliga?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Bundesliga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Bayern München wins Bundesliga in 85.8% of 2,000 season simulations.
Borussia Dortmund — 13.3% title chance.
Borussia Mönchengladbach goes down in 52.4% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 4 | 10 | 85.8% | 100% | <0.1% | 78 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 13.3% | 96.8% | <0.1% | 68 |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 6 | 0.5% | 56.2% | 0.1% | 57 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 7 | 0.4% | 43.5% | 0.1% | 55 |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3 | 0.1% | 28.8% | 0.5% | 53 |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 4 | 7 | 0.1% | 26.7% | 0.5% | 52 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 3 | <0.1% | 22.3% | 0.6% | 51 |
| 8 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 10 | <0.1% | 14.5% | 1.2% | 49 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 7 | <0.1% | 2.7% | 10.9% | 43 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | <0.1% | 2.9% | 12.6% | 43 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | <0.1% | 2.5% | 11.5% | 43 |
| 12 |  FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 5 | <0.1% | 2.2% | 12.7% | 42 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 4 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 32% | 38 |
| 14 |  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 35.1% | 37 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 3 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 36.9% | 37 |
| 16 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 4 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 46.1% | 36 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 1 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 47.1% | 35 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 52.4% | 34 |
Next Bundesliga fixtures — with AI predictions
- Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenFri, Oct 9AI prediction →
- FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer LeverkusenSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- 1899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SVSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- FC Augsburg – Bayern MünchenSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Union Berlin – SV ElversbergSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- SC Paderborn 07 – VfB StuttgartSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- RB Leipzig – Eintracht FrankfurtSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- 1. FC Köln – Borussia MönchengladbachSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Bundesliga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Bundesliga in 2026/27?
Bayern München wins Bundesliga in 85.8% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.