Who Will Win La Liga?
2,000 season simulations · 30 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the La Liga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Atletico Madrid wins La Liga in 9.6% of 2,000 season simulations.
Osasuna — 9.5% title chance.
Villarreal goes down in 29.1% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 9.6% | 29.4% | 9.7% | 4 |
| 2 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 9.5% | 29.2% | 10.1% | 4 |
| 3 |  Alaves | 0 | 0 | 7.8% | 26.5% | 11.1% | 4 |
| 4 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 7.6% | 25.9% | 9.7% | 4 |
| 5 |  Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 24.6% | 14% | 4 |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 5.8% | 22.8% | 11.4% | 4 |
| 7 |  Elche | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 21.5% | 13.7% | 4 |
| 8 |  Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 21.2% | 12.5% | 4 |
| 9 |  Getafe | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 19.6% | 13% | 4 |
| 10 |  Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 21.1% | 14.1% | 4 |
| 11 |  Levante | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 4 |
| 12 |  Malaga | 0 | 0 | 4.1% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 4 |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 4.1% | 17.7% | 15% | 4 |
| 14 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 20.1% | 14% | 4 |
| 15 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 17.4% | 16.6% | 4 |
| 16 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 17.4% | 16.2% | 4 |
| 17 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 13.3% | 20.5% | 4 |
| 18 |  Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 13.4% | 18.7% | 4 |
| 19 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 13.1% | 19.4% | 4 |
| 20 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 1.5% | 9.1% | 29.1% | 4 |
Next La Liga fixtures — with AI predictions
- Alaves – GetafeSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Sevilla – Rayo VallecanoSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Racing Santander – VillarrealSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Espanyol – LevanteSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Celta Vigo – OsasunaSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Deportivo La Coruna – ElcheMon, Aug 17AI prediction →
- Atletico Madrid – MalagaWed, Aug 19AI prediction →
- Rayo Vallecano – AlavesThu, Aug 20AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining La Liga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win La Liga in 2026/27?
Atletico Madrid wins La Liga in 9.6% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.