Who Will Win La Liga?
2,000 season simulations · 380 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the La Liga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Barcelona wins La Liga in 98.1% of 2,000 season simulations.
Atletico Madrid — 0.9% title chance.
Malaga goes down in 89% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 21 | 98.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 97 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 16 | 0.9% | 95.2% | <0.1% | 79 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 15 | 0.7% | 88.8% | <0.1% | 76 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 7 | 16 | 0.4% | 86.1% | <0.1% | 75 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 13 | <0.1% | 19.5% | <0.1% | 65 |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 11 | <0.1% | 7.1% | <0.1% | 61 |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 10 | <0.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 55 |
| 8 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 8 | <0.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 53 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 10 | <0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 52 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 48 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.5% | 46 |
| 12 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 4.6% | 46 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.7% | 45 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 7 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 45 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 7.5% | 44 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 24.9% | 39 |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 27.9% | 39 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 49.7% | 35 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79.6% | 30 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 89% | 28 |
Next La Liga fixtures — with AI predictions
- Malaga – EspanyolFri, Oct 9AI prediction →
- Rayo Vallecano – Athletic ClubSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Alaves – Atletico MadridSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Barcelona – GetafeSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Real Madrid – VillarrealSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Elche – Celta VigoSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Real Sociedad – Deportivo La CorunaSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Real Betis – OsasunaSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining La Liga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win La Liga in 2026/27?
Barcelona wins La Liga in 98.1% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.