Who Will Win Premier League?
2,000 season simulations · 380 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Premier League 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Manchester City wins Premier League in 92.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Arsenal — 4.4% title chance.
Tottenham goes down in 73.5% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 15 | 92.7% | 99.9% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 5 | 12 | 4.4% | 90.8% | <0.1% | 79 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 5 | 10 | 2.5% | 84.4% | <0.1% | 76 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 9 | 0.2% | 37% | <0.1% | 68 |
| 5 |  Leeds | 5 | 9 | 0.2% | 28% | <0.1% | 66 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 9 | 0.1% | 23.7% | <0.1% | 65 |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 9 | 0.1% | 22.4% | <0.1% | 65 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 5 | 8 | 0.1% | 8.4% | <0.1% | 60 |
| 9 |  Newcastle | 5 | 8 | <0.1% | 4.9% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 52 |
| 11 |  Ipswich | 5 | 6 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 46 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.3% | 45 |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.8% | 45 |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 18.8% | 38 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 22.1% | 37 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 23.3% | 37 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 30.3% | 36 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 5 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.6% | 31 |
| 19 |  Coventry | 5 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.8% | 30 |
| 20 |  Tottenham | 5 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 73.5% | 29 |
Next Premier League fixtures — with AI predictions
- Arsenal – LeedsSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Chelsea – BournemouthSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Ipswich – FulhamSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Aston Villa – BrentfordSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Sunderland – BrightonSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Manchester United – TottenhamSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Crystal Palace – Nottingham ForestSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Hull City – EvertonSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Premier League fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Premier League in 2026/27?
Manchester City wins Premier League in 92.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.