Who Will Win Ligue 1?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Ligue 1 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Monaco wins Ligue 1 in 61.2% of 2,000 season simulations.
Lyon — 20.9% title chance.
Le Havre goes down in 85.1% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 13 | 61.2% | 98.7% | <0.1% | 75 |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 11 | 20.9% | 94.1% | <0.1% | 70 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 5 | 11 | 12.9% | 88.6% | <0.1% | 68 |
| 4 |  Lille | 5 | 10 | 3.6% | 67.4% | <0.1% | 63 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 10 | 1.4% | 36% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 8 | 0.1% | 9.7% | 0.1% | 53 |
| 7 |  Angers | 5 | 7 | 0.1% | 3% | 0.6% | 49 |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 7 | <0.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 48 |
| 9 |  Le Mans | 5 | 6 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 44 |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 6 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 9.7% | 40 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 12.2% | 39 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 12.4% | 39 |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 16% | 38 |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 17.5% | 38 |
| 15 |  Lens | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 27.4% | 36 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 58.2% | 31 |
| 17 |  Marseille | 5 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 57.3% | 31 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 85.1% | 26 |
Next Ligue 1 fixtures — with AI predictions
- Lens – LyonFri, Oct 9AI prediction →
- Lille – Le HavreSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Paris Saint Germain – Le MansSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Monaco – ToulouseSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Lorient – Paris FCSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Stade Brestois 29 – AngersSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Nice – StrasbourgSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Rennes – AuxerreSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Ligue 1 fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Ligue 1 in 2026/27?
Monaco wins Ligue 1 in 61.2% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.