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  1. Home
  2. Copa Sudamericana
  3. Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC

Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC

Result • Copa Sudamericana·Independiente Petrolero·Caracas FC

Copa Sudamericana
Copa Sudamericana
May 5, 2026
22:00
low Confidence
Independiente Petrolero

Independiente Petrolero

Home
Final Score
2-3
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
2-3
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
12.05
X3.50
23.50
Stadium
Estadio Olimpico Patria
low Confidence
WINNER
Caracas FC

Caracas FC

Away
Odds
12.05
X3.50
23.50
Stadium
Estadio Olimpico Patria
Win Probabilities
41%
Independiente Petrolero
29%
Draw
30%
Caracas FC
Home2.0541%
Draw3.5029%
Away3.5030%

Oracle's Vision

low Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a home victory shrouded in uncertainty, as form favors the visitor but odds whisper of a home triumph. Rain and physicality may tip the scales.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa Sudamericana fixture between Independiente Petrolero and Caracas FC using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Independiente Petrolero a 41% win probability, a 29% chance of a draw, and Caracas FC a 30% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 55%. This prediction is rated as low confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 55%

Match Events

  1. 4'
    Own goal: F. Rodriguez (Own goal)Caracas FC
    Own goal: F. Rodriguez (Own goal)
  2. 15'
    Goal: A. FernandezCaracas FC · Assist: I. Gudino
    Goal: A. FernandezAssist: I. Gudino
  3. Red Card: S. Torres
    28'
    Red Card: S. TorresIndependiente Petrolero
  4. Substitution: L. MontenegroOut: A. Mercado
    34'
    Substitution: L. MontenegroIndependiente Petrolero · Out: A. Mercado
  5. Substitution: Wagner PinoteOut: F. Rodriguez
    46'
    Substitution: Wagner PinoteIndependiente Petrolero · Out: F. Rodriguez
  6. Substitution: R. RivasOut: G. Cristaldo
    46'
    Substitution: R. RivasIndependiente Petrolero · Out: G. Cristaldo
  7. 46'
    Substitution: L. ReinosoCaracas FC · Out: M. Covea
    Substitution: L. ReinosoOut: M. Covea
  8. Goal: R. RivasAssist: R. Cardozo
    55'
    Goal: R. RivasIndependiente Petrolero · Assist: R. Cardozo
  9. 57'
    Yellow Card: E. E. Fereira PenarandaCaracas FC
    Yellow Card: E. E. Fereira Penaranda
  10. Goal: J. E. CristaldoAssist: R. Montero
    59'
    Goal: J. E. CristaldoIndependiente Petrolero · Assist: R. Montero
  11. 67'
    Goal: W. CorreaCaracas FC
    Goal: W. Correa
  12. 82'
    Substitution: R. LezamaCaracas FC · Out: Robert Hernandez
    Substitution: R. LezamaOut: Robert Hernandez
  13. Substitution: R. LutkowskiOut: R. Cardozo
    82'
    Substitution: R. LutkowskiIndependiente Petrolero · Out: R. Cardozo
  14. 83'
    Substitution: M. MarquezCaracas FC · Out: W. Correa
    Substitution: M. MarquezOut: W. Correa
  15. 83'
    Substitution: S. GonzalezCaracas FC · Out: A. Fernandez
    Substitution: S. GonzalezOut: A. Fernandez
  16. Substitution: AdelanOut: D. Rojas
    83'
    Substitution: AdelanIndependiente Petrolero · Out: D. Rojas
  17. 90+1'
    Yellow Card: I. GudinoCaracas FC
    Yellow Card: I. Gudino
  18. 90+4'
    Substitution: F. La MantiaCaracas FC · Out: L. Reinoso
    Substitution: F. La MantiaOut: L. Reinoso
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
2N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
3N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Independiente Petrolero

  • Home advantage
  • Physical style favored by weather
  • Poor recent form (2 goals in 5 games)
  • Weak defense (7 goals conceded)

Caracas FC

  • Strong recent form (4 unbeaten)
  • Solid defense (1 clean sheet in 5)
  • Lower odds imply underdog status
  • Away match in difficult conditions

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
41%
API-Football
50%
40%
Caracas FC214040

Models disagree significantly. Suggests away win (40%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisLow Confidence

The predicted outcome is a home win for Independiente Petrolero, based on bookmaker odds and home advantage.

Form Analysis: Caracas FC has a 4-match unbeaten streak (WDLWD) with strong defensive record (4 goals for, 2 against), while Independiente Petrolero has struggled, scoring only 2 goals in last 5 matches and conceding 7. However, the API comparison heavily favors Caracas FC in form (73%), attack (67%), defense (78%), and overall (72.5%).

Key Factors: Despite Caracas FC's statistical dominance, the bookmaker odds imply a 46% home win probability, which is the primary signal. Home advantage (0.55 rating) and the physical style favored by rainy conditions may benefit the home side. No significant injuries reported.

Conclusion: Following the odds, Independiente Petrolero is the most likely winner, but with low confidence due to conflicting form and API data.

Statistical ContextCaracas FC

Double chance : draw or Caracas FC

Team Comparison

AI Powered
Independiente PetroleroCaracas FC
27%Strength72%
33%Attacking Potential67%
22%Defensive Potential78%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
50%H2H Strength100%
50%Goals H2H100%
27%Wins the Game72%
Head-to-head →Injuries · Independiente PetroleroInjuries · Caracas FCLive scores →

Statistical Context

Independiente Petrolero

LLLLL
  • LSep 13, 26A · Universitario de Vinto3-1
  • LSep 6, 26H · Bolívar0-4
  • LMay 27, 26A · Racing Club2-0
  • LMay 21, 26H · Botafogo0-3
  • LApr 28, 26A · Botafogo3-0

Caracas FC

LLWDD
  • LSep 16, 26A · Metropolitanos FC3-0
  • LSep 13, 26H · Monagas SC0-1
  • WSep 6, 26A · Trujillanos FC0-1
  • DSep 2, 26H · Portuguesa FC1-1
  • DAug 30, 26A · Deportivo Tachira FC0-0

Head to Head

1
Independiente Petrolero
0
Draws
0
Caracas FC
  • Apr 15, 26Caracas FC – Independiente Petrolero1-0

Season Statistics — 2026

Independiente PetroleroCaracas FC
Played622
Goals Scored423
Goals Conceded1327
Avg Scored0.71.1
Avg Conceded2.21.2
Clean Sheets15

Independiente Petrolero vs Caracas FC — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a home victory shrouded in uncertainty, as form favors the visitor but odds whisper of a home triumph. Rain and physicality may tip the scales.

The predicted outcome is a home win for Independiente Petrolero, based on bookmaker odds and home advantage.

Form Analysis: Caracas FC has a 4-match unbeaten streak (WDLWD) with strong defensive record (4 goals for, 2 against), while Independiente Petrolero has struggled, scoring only 2 goals in last 5 matches and conceding 7. However, the API comparison heavily favors Caracas FC in form (73%), attack (67%), defense (78%), and overall (72.5%).

Key Factors: Despite Caracas FC's statistical dominance, the bookmaker odds imply a 46% home win probability, which is the primary signal. Home advantage (0.55 rating) and the physical style favored by rainy conditions may benefit the home side. No significant injuries reported.

Conclusion: Following the odds, Independiente Petrolero is the most likely winner, but with low confidence due to conflicting form and API data.

Win Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero: 41% · Draw: 29% · Caracas FC: 30%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (10.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 48% · Under 2.5: 52% · BTTS: 55%

H2H: Independiente Petrolero wins: 1 · Draws: 0 · Caracas FC wins: 0

Form (latest first): Independiente Petrolero: LLLLL · Caracas FC: LLWDD

  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.

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