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  1. Home
  2. UEFA Champions League
  3. Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid

Result • UEFA Champions League·Arsenal·Atletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League
May 5, 2026
19:00
high Confidence
WINNER
Arsenal

Arsenal

Home
Final Score
1-0
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
1-0
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.57
X4.33
25.50
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
high Confidence
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Away
Odds
11.57
X4.33
25.50
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
Win Probabilities
57%
Arsenal
28%
Draw
15%
Atletico Madrid
Home1.5757%
Draw4.3328%
Away5.5015%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Arsenal's fortress standing firm against Atletico's fading star. A home victory is written in the stars, but the visitors' attack may find a consolation.

Our AI model analyzes this UEFA Champions League fixture between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Arsenal a 57% win probability, a 28% chance of a draw, and Atletico Madrid a 15% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 50%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 50%

Match Events

  1. Goal: B. Saka
    44'
    Goal: B. SakaArsenal
  2. 57'
    Substitution: J. CardosoAtletico Madrid · Out: G. Simeone
    Substitution: J. CardosoOut: G. Simeone
  3. 57'
    Substitution: A. SorlothAtletico Madrid · Out: R. Le Normand
    Substitution: A. SorlothOut: R. Le Normand
  4. 57'
    Substitution: N. MolinaAtletico Madrid · Out: A. Lookman
    Substitution: N. MolinaOut: A. Lookman
  5. Substitution: P. HincapieOut: R. Calafiori
    58'
    Substitution: P. HincapieArsenal · Out: R. Calafiori
  6. Substitution: N. MaduekeOut: B. Saka
    58'
    Substitution: N. MaduekeArsenal · Out: B. Saka
  7. Substitution: M. OdegaardOut: E. Eze
    59'
    Substitution: M. OdegaardArsenal · Out: E. Eze
  8. 66'
    Substitution: A. BaenaAtletico Madrid · Out: A. Griezmann
    Substitution: A. BaenaOut: A. Griezmann
  9. 66'
    Substitution: T. AlmadaAtletico Madrid · Out: J. Alvarez
    Substitution: T. AlmadaOut: J. Alvarez
  10. Substitution: M. ZubimendiOut: M. Lewis-Skelly
    74'
    Substitution: M. ZubimendiArsenal · Out: M. Lewis-Skelly
  11. 81'
    Yellow Card: M. PubillAtletico Madrid
    Yellow Card: M. Pubill
  12. Substitution: G. MartinelliOut: L. Trossard
    83'
    Substitution: G. MartinelliArsenal · Out: L. Trossard
  13. 90+2'
    Yellow Card: D. SimeoneAtletico Madrid
    Yellow Card: D. Simeone
  14. Yellow Card: M. Arteta
    90+3'
    Yellow Card: M. ArtetaArsenal
  15. 90+5'
    Yellow Card: KokeAtletico Madrid
    Yellow Card: Koke
  16. Yellow Card: K. Arrizabalaga
    90+5'
    Yellow Card: K. ArrizabalagaArsenal
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1Gabriel Martinelli vs Atletico's right-back: Martinelli's pace and dribbling could exploit defensive gaps.
2J. Álvarez vs Arsenal's center-backs: Álvarez's goal-scoring form will test Arsenal's solid defense.
3Midfield battle: Arsenal's midfield control vs Atletico's counter-attacking transitions.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Arsenal

  • Excellent recent form (5 wins)
  • Strong defense (3 clean sheets in last 5)
  • Attack rating lower than opponent (31% vs 69%)
  • Key players not top-tier scorers

Atletico Madrid

  • Strong attack rating (69%)
  • Top scorer J. Álvarez with 7 goals
  • Poor recent form (3 losses in last 5)
  • Weak defense (conceded 1.6 goals per game)

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
57%
API-Football
45%
51%
Arsenal503713

Moderate agreement on home win (51%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Arsenal are predicted to win against Atletico Madrid in this UEFA Champions League clash at the Emirates Stadium.

Form Analysis: Arsenal come into this match with five consecutive wins, scoring 28 goals and conceding only 6, with 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games. Atletico Madrid have lost three of their last five, conceding 1.6 goals per game on average. Arsenal's momentum is clearly superior.

Key Factors: Arsenal's defensive solidity (80% defensive rating in API comparison) against Atletico's recent defensive frailty. Arsenal also enjoy home advantage (0.55 rating) and sit 1st in their league with a +19 goal difference, while Atletico are 14th with only +2 GD. No significant injuries for either side.

Conclusion: With odds heavily favoring Arsenal (61% implied probability), their excellent form, and Atletico's poor run, a home win is the most likely outcome.

Statistical ContextArsenal

Double chance : Arsenal or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
ArsenalAtletico Madrid
60%Strength39%
31%Attacking Potential69%
80%Defensive Potential20%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
50%H2H Strength50%
64%Goals H2H36%
60%Wins the Game39%
Head-to-head →Injuries · ArsenalInjuries · Atletico MadridLive scores →

Statistical Context

Arsenal

LWWWW
  • LSep 19, 26A · Brighton3-0
  • WSep 15, 26A · Ipswich2-4
  • WSep 12, 26A · Sunderland0-2
  • WSep 9, 26A · Napoli0-1
  • WSep 6, 26H · Chelsea2-1

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL
  • WSep 20, 26H · Real Madrid2-1
  • WSep 16, 26H · Osasuna4-0
  • WSep 13, 26A · Real Sociedad0-3
  • LSep 9, 26A · Liverpool2-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · Athletic Club3-0

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
14Real Madrid1+13W
15Arsenal1+13W
16AEK Athens FC1+13W
25Inter1-10L
26Atletico Madrid1-10L
27Napoli1-10L

Head to Head

1
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Atletico Madrid
  • Oct 21, 25Arsenal – Atletico Madrid4-0
  • Jul 26, 18Atletico Madrid – Arsenal1-1
  • May 3, 18Atletico Madrid – Arsenal1-0
  • Apr 26, 18Arsenal – Atletico Madrid1-1

Season Statistics — 2026

ArsenalAtletico Madrid
Played—4
Goals Scored—7
Goals Conceded—6
Avg Scored—1.8
Avg Conceded—1.5
Clean Sheets—1

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

ArsenalAtletico Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals5/106/10
Both Teams Scored5/104/10
Clean Sheets5/104/10

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Arsenal's fortress standing firm against Atletico's fading star. A home victory is written in the stars, but the visitors' attack may find a consolation.

Arsenal are predicted to win against Atletico Madrid in this UEFA Champions League clash at the Emirates Stadium.

Form Analysis: Arsenal come into this match with five consecutive wins, scoring 28 goals and conceding only 6, with 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games. Atletico Madrid have lost three of their last five, conceding 1.6 goals per game on average. Arsenal's momentum is clearly superior.

Key Factors: Arsenal's defensive solidity (80% defensive rating in API comparison) against Atletico's recent defensive frailty. Arsenal also enjoy home advantage (0.55 rating) and sit 1st in their league with a +19 goal difference, while Atletico are 14th with only +2 GD. No significant injuries for either side.

Conclusion: With odds heavily favoring Arsenal (61% implied probability), their excellent form, and Atletico's poor run, a home win is the most likely outcome.

Win Probabilities: Arsenal: 57% · Draw: 28% · Atletico Madrid: 15%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 50%

H2H: Arsenal wins: 1 · Draws: 2 · Atletico Madrid wins: 1

Form (latest first): Arsenal: LWWWW · Atletico Madrid: WWWLL

  • Gabriel Martinelli vs Atletico's right-back: Martinelli's pace and dribbling could exploit defensive gaps.
  • J. Álvarez vs Arsenal's center-backs: Álvarez's goal-scoring form will test Arsenal's solid defense.
  • Midfield battle: Arsenal's midfield control vs Atletico's counter-attacking transitions.

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UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions League

World15 · Upcoming Fixtures
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Lens
Oct 1316:45
Sporting CP
13.0333%
X3.0333%
22.9434%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Sabah FA
Oct 1316:45
Slavia Praha
13.0333%
X3.0333%
22.9434%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Arsenal
Oct 1319:00
Lille
Early projection
11.4171%
X6.2516%
27.6913%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
RB Leipzig
Oct 1319:00
PSV Eindhoven
Early projection
13.3330%
X4.0025%
22.2245%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Inter
Oct 1319:00
Club Brugge KV
Early projection
11.5963%
X5.2619%
25.5618%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Atletico Madrid
Oct 1319:00
Manchester United
12.0050%
X3.5728%
24.5522%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Villarreal
Oct 1319:00
Napoli
Early projection
14.0025%
X4.5522%
21.8953%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Galatasaray
Oct 1319:00
Barcelona
Early projection
14.1724%
X4.7621%
21.8255%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Viking
Oct 1319:00
Bayern München
13.3330%
X4.0025%
22.2245%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Feyenoord
Oct 1416:45
Como
12.5040%
X3.3330%
23.3330%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Lask Linz
Oct 1416:45
Liverpool
13.3330%
X4.0025%
22.2245%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Manchester City
Oct 1419:00
Paris Saint Germain
Early projection
11.9651%
X4.5522%
23.7027%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Aston Villa
Oct 1419:00
Fenerbahçe
12.0050%
X4.0025%
24.0025%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
Bodo/Glimt
Oct 1419:00
Borussia Dortmund
Early projection
12.3842%
X3.8526%
23.1332%
UEFA Champions LeagueWorld
AS Roma
Oct 1419:00
Real Madrid
13.0333%
X3.0333%
22.9434%

Betting Tips

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