52.8% Hit Rate: AI Football Predictions Weekly Recap

52.8% Hit Rate Across 888 Settled Picks

In the seven days from 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21, Betora settled 888 1X2 predictions. Of those, 469 were correct — a headline hit rate of 52.8%. That is the number that matters, and it is the number we publish first. No cherry-picking, no hiding the volume: every settled pick is counted, including the ones that went wrong.

Alongside the 1X2 results, the model also issued 888 exact-score calls. It nailed 101 of them. Exact-score prediction is a much harder task than picking a winner, so we treat those 101 hits as a separate, stricter measure of the model's sharpness rather than folding them into the headline rate.

Best Leagues and the Boldest Correct Calls

Some competitions treated the model better than others. Liga I led the way with an 87.5% hit rate from 8 picks. Super League 2 followed at 85.7% from 7 picks, then Liga de Expansión MX at 77.8% from 9, Ligat Ha'al at 76.9% from 13, and Segunda División at 75% from 12. These are small samples, and we flag that openly — a hot week in a narrow league is not proof of a permanent edge.

The boldest correct calls came from the FA Cup, where the model went against the grain three times at just 34% stated probability. Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic: AI pick Scarborough Athletic win at 34%, final score 0:2. full AI analysis. Hednesford Town vs Coventry United: AI pick Coventry United win at 34%, final score 0:1. full AI analysis. Woodford Town vs Mulbarton Wanderers: AI pick Mulbarton Wanderers win at 34%, final score 1:2. full AI analysis. Three low-probability away wins landing in the same competition is the kind of week that flatters a model — and we say so.

On exact scores, three hits stood out. Panionios vs Apollon Pontou in Super League 2: AI pick Panionios win at 76%, final score 1:0. full AI analysis. Shakhtar Donetsk vs Chornomorets in the Premier League: AI pick Shakhtar Donetsk win at 84%, final score 2:0. full AI analysis. Inter Turku vs VPS in the Veikkausliiga: AI pick Inter Turku win at 64%, final score 1:0. full AI analysis. These are the calls where the model got both the winner and the margin right.

The Misses: Where the Model Got It Wrong

A transparency report without the losses is marketing, not reporting. The two biggest misses this week were also the model's most confident picks. Sporting CP vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga: AI pick Sporting CP win at 84%, final score 2:2. full AI analysis. Novi Pazar vs Zemun in the Super Liga: AI pick Novi Pazar win at 78%, final score 2:2. full AI analysis. Both were high-probability favourites that were held to draws. There is no spin here: an 84% call that fails is a real loss for anyone who followed it, and it is counted in the 888 settled picks and the 52.8% rate.

It is also worth noting the shape of the week. The model's best league hit rates came from small samples — 8 picks in Liga I, 7 in Super League 2 — while the overall rate across 888 picks sits at 52.8%. That gap is a reminder that league-level percentages move fast and should not be read as a guarantee. The FA Cup upsets that made the boldest-calls list were priced at 34% for a reason: they were unlikely, and this week they happened to land. Next week they may not.

We publish every settled result, win or lose, so the record can be checked rather than trusted. You can review the running numbers on our verified accuracy page, and see what the model is calling next on today's AI betting tips.