Based on the data, HNK Gorica is predicted to win or draw, with a slight edge over Istra 1961. The market probabilities are nearly even, but the API-Football model strongly favors HNK Gorica, and key statistical factors support this lean.
Form Analysis: HNK Gorica's form is DWDDL with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match, showing offensive capability but defensive vulnerability. Istra 1961's form is LWWLL with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, indicating weaker attack and slightly better defense. Both teams are on a 1-loss streak, but Istra 1961 failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games.
Key Factors: 1. API-Football model predicts HNK Gorica as the winner with 45% probability and advises a double chance for home win or draw. 2. API team comparison shows HNK Gorica with stronger attack (64% vs 36%) and overall advantage (57.5% vs 42.5%). 3. Head-to-head history favors HNK Gorica with 5 wins in the last 5 meetings, though draws are also common (3 draws).
Conclusion: The data suggests HNK Gorica has a slight advantage, supported by statistical models and historical performance, making a home win or draw the most likely outcome, aligning with the market's close probabilities.
