FK Liepaja enter this match as slight favourites, but the data suggests a tight contest. The home side sit 4th in the Virsliga, three points above 6th-placed FS Jelgava, and boast a strong home record (5W-2D-2L). However, their recent form is poor with two consecutive losses, while Jelgava arrive on a two-match winning streak.
Form Analysis: FK Liepaja have won only 37% of their last five matches, scoring 1.2 goals per game but conceding 1.4. In contrast, FS Jelgava have a lower win rate (21%) but average 2.2 goals scored per game, though they also concede 1.2. Jelgava's momentum is positive, while Liepaja are struggling.
Key Factors: Head-to-head history heavily favours Liepaja, who have won six of the last ten meetings with no Jelgava victories. Additionally, Liepaja's home advantage is significant, with a 0.56 rating and a solid home record. However, Jelgava's recent form and attacking output (2.2 goals per game) cannot be ignored.
Conclusion: The combination of home advantage, historical dominance, and league position gives FK Liepaja a narrow edge, but FS Jelgava's momentum and attacking threat make this a balanced affair. A home win is the most likely outcome, but a draw is a strong possibility.
