Rīgas FS are clear favourites to win away at Tukums, given their dominant form, superior league standing, and perfect head-to-head record.
Form Analysis: Tukums have won only 16% of their last five matches (LWDLL), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Rīgas FS are in excellent form (WLWWW) with an 84% win rate, scoring 3.0 goals per game and conceding just 1.0. The away side also kept a clean sheet in one of those five games.
Key Factors: The head-to-head record is overwhelmingly in favour of Rīgas FS, who have won all 10 previous meetings. Tukums sit 8th in the league with 17 points and a negative goal difference, while Rīgas FS are 2nd with 49 points and +34 GD, chasing Champions League qualification. The API-Football model gives Rīgas FS a 71.6% overall strength advantage, and the baseline probabilities (73% away win) align closely.
Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable away victory for Rīgas FS. Tukums lack the quality to trouble the league's second-best team, and their poor defensive record (2.4 goals conceded per game) will likely be exposed.
