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  1. Home
  2. Eredivisie
  3. Ajax vs Excelsior

Ajax vs Excelsior

Prediction • Eredivisie·Ajax·Excelsior

Eredivisie
Eredivisie
Sep 19, 2026
18:00
Early projection · Odds pending
PREDICTED WINNER
Ajax

Ajax

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena
Early projection · Odds pending
Excelsior

Excelsior

Away
Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena
Win Probabilities
59%
Ajax
20%
Draw
21%
Excelsior
Home1.6959%
Draw5.0020%
Away4.7621%

Oracle's Vision

Early projection
“

Ajax are clear favourites given their unbeaten form and dominant head-to-head record, but their injury crisis could make this a tighter contest than expected. The main risk is that Excelsior's attacking threat and Ajax's depleted defense could lead to an upset.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
6.0Ajax
/10
6.0Excelsior
Ajax
FormLatest first
WDDWW
Win Rate60%
Excelsior
FormLatest first
LWWDW
Win Rate60%
Momentum AdvantageEven Match

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Ajax
Home

Ajax

Form
WD
Latest first
2
Pos
78
Pts
+8
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 4 matches)

Clean Sheets00%
Goal Diff+8
  • Unbeaten in last 5 matches
  • Strong attacking output (2.4 goals per game)
  • Dominant head-to-head record against Excelsior
D. Blind
Injury
Injured
J. Faberski
Knee Injury
Injured
M. ter Stegen
Hamstring Injury
Injured
A. van Axel Dongen
Thigh Injury
Injured
R. Bounida
Injury
Injured
A. Kaplan
Knee Injury
Injured
J. Sutalo
Injury
Injured

Head to Head

Last 10
Ajax
Ajax
6Wins
3
Draws
Excelsior
1Wins
Excelsior
60%30%10%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Feb12026
ExcelsiorExcelsior
2-2
Draw
AjaxAjax
Nov222025
AjaxAjax
1-2
Loss
ExcelsiorExcelsior
Apr242024
AjaxAjax
2-2
Draw
ExcelsiorExcelsior
Aug192023
ExcelsiorExcelsior
2-2
Draw
AjaxAjax
Jan292023
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1-4
Win
AjaxAjax
Oct162022
AjaxAjax
7-1
Win
ExcelsiorExcelsior
Apr132019
AjaxAjax
6-2
Win
ExcelsiorExcelsior
Nov112018
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1-7
Win
AjaxAjax
May62018
ExcelsiorExcelsior
1-2
Win
AjaxAjax
Dec142017
AjaxAjax
3-1
Win
ExcelsiorExcelsior

Past Predictions

0%0/1 correct

Excelsior 2 - 2 Ajax

Feb 1, 2026

22% / 25% / 53%

Ajax4-2-3-1vs4-3-3ExcelsiorPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Central creativity vs wide threat. Balance key.

ExcelsiorExcelsior4-3-3
AjaxAjax4-2-3-1
ExcelsiorBenchExcelsior7
AjaxBenchAjax7

Injury Report

Current team availability status

Data Accuracy: Player availability is highly accurate (~90%), but specific injury diagnoses and recovery timelines may not reflect the latest medical updates (~70% accuracy).

Ajax

7Out

7 key players

Excelsior

1Out

1 key player

Ajax

Team

Ajax

Players Out

7(7 key)
D. Blind

D. Blind

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

J. Faberski

J. Faberski

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

M. ter Stegen

M. ter Stegen

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

A. van Axel Dongen

A. van Axel Dongen

MODERATE
Injury:Thigh Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

R. Bounida

R. Bounida

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

A. Kaplan

A. Kaplan

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

J. Sutalo

J. Sutalo

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

Excelsior

Team

Excelsior

Players Out

1(1 key)
K. Bos

K. Bos

MODERATE
Injury:Shoulder Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

Eredivisie

League Statistics

Eredivisie • Standings & Top Performers

Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
220061+56
2
Groningen
Groningen
220062+46
3
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
211063+34
4
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
211053+24
5
Ajax
AjaxHome
211042+24
6
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
211043+14
7
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
211032+14
8
Feyenoord
Feyenoord
211032+14
9
Excelsior
ExcelsiorAway
210152+33
10
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
210153+23
11
Twente
Twente
210132+13
12
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
210132+13
13
Telstar
Telstar
210134-13
14
Utrecht
Utrecht
200226-40
15
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
200215-40
16
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
200216-50
17
Willem II
Willem II
200228-60
18
Cambuur
Cambuur
200217-60
Champions League
Relegation
HomeAway

Oracle's Vision

Early projection

Ajax

Odds pending

Win Probabilities

59%Ajax
20%Draw
21%Excelsior

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffSat, Sep 19 · 18:00
StadiumJohan Cruijff Arena
League StatsEredivisie

Statistical Context

Ajax

WDDWW
  • WAug 20, 26A · FC Sion2-4
  • DAug 16, 26H · Heerenveen2-2
  • DAug 13, 26A · Shelbourne2-2
  • WAug 9, 26A · PEC Zwolle0-2
  • WAug 6, 26H · Shelbourne3-1

Excelsior

LWWDW
  • LAug 15, 26H · PSV Eindhoven1-2
  • WAug 7, 26A · Cambuur0-4
  • WMay 17, 26A · Sparta Rotterdam2-3
  • DMay 10, 26H · FC Volendam1-1
  • WMay 2, 26A · Groningen2-3

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
4Fortuna Sittard2+24WD
5Ajax2+24DW
6PSV Eindhoven2+14WD
7Heerenveen2+14DW
8Feyenoord2+14DW
9Excelsior2+33LW
10NEC Nijmegen2+23WL

Head to Head

6
Ajax
3
Draws
1
Excelsior
  • Feb 1, 26Excelsior – Ajax2-2
  • Nov 22, 25Ajax – Excelsior1-2
  • Apr 24, 24Ajax – Excelsior2-2
  • Aug 19, 23Excelsior – Ajax2-2
  • Jan 29, 23Excelsior – Ajax1-4

Season Statistics — 2026

AjaxExcelsior
Played42
Goals Scored135
Goals Conceded52
Avg Scored3.32.5
Avg Conceded1.31.0
Clean Sheets01

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

AjaxExcelsior
Over 2.5 Goals6/10—
Both Teams Scored6/10—
Clean Sheets1/10—

Predicted Line-ups & Formations

Predicted XI

Ajax

Formation 4-2-3-1
  1. 22GJ. Heerkens
  2. 15DY. Baas
  3. 30DA. Bouwman
  4. 12DCaio Henrique
  5. 3DA. Gaaei
  6. 8MJ. Brandt
  7. 10MO. Gloukh
  8. 18MD. Klaassen
  9. 24MJ. Mokio
  10. 68MA. Ouazane
  11. 99AT. Arokodare

Coach: J. Heitinga

Excelsior

Formation 4-3-3
  1. 16GCelton Biai
  2. 5DS. Henderikx
  3. 15DS. Janssen
  4. 3DR. Meissen
  5. 4DC. Widell
  6. 24MGiulliano Cairo
  7. 23MY. Finey
  8. 20ML. Hartjes
  9. 21AI. Silva Timas
  10. 9AMario Domínguez
  11. 19AD. Garden

Coach: A. Hoekstra

Ajax vs Excelsior — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Ajax are clear favourites given their unbeaten form and dominant head-to-head record, but their injury crisis could make this a tighter contest than expected. The main risk is that Excelsior's attacking threat and Ajax's depleted defense could lead to an upset.

Based on the available data, Ajax enter this Eredivisie clash as the clear favourites, despite a significant injury list. The baseline model gives them a strong edge, and while the API-Football model suggests a more even contest, the overall comparison still slightly favours the home side.…

Win Probabilities: Ajax: 59% · Draw: 20% · Excelsior: 21%

H2H: Ajax wins: 6 · Draws: 3 · Excelsior wins: 1

Form (latest first): Ajax: WDDWW · Excelsior: LWWDW

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Eredivisie

Eredivisie

Netherlands15 · Upcoming Fixtures
EredivisieNetherlands
Fortuna Sittard
Aug 2214:30
AZ Alkmaar
16.6715%
X4.1724%
21.6461%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Sparta Rotterdam
Aug 2216:45
Utrecht
12.5040%
X3.2331%
23.4529%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Heerenveen
Aug 2219:00
PEC Zwolle
11.6959%
X4.1724%
25.8817%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
GO Ahead Eagles
Aug 2310:15
ADO Den Haag
11.7258%
X3.8526%
26.2516%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
PSV Eindhoven
Aug 2312:30
Groningen
11.5963%
X5.2619%
25.5618%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Cambuur
Aug 2314:45
Feyenoord
112.508%
X5.0020%
21.3972%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Groningen
Aug 2818:00
Fortuna Sittard
Early projection
12.0449%
X4.3523%
23.5728%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Excelsior
Aug 2914:30
Sparta Rotterdam
Early projection
12.0449%
X4.3523%
23.5728%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
AZ Alkmaar
Aug 2916:45
GO Ahead Eagles
Early projection
12.2245%
X4.1724%
23.2331%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
PEC Zwolle
Aug 2919:00
NEC Nijmegen
Early projection
12.8635%
X3.5728%
22.7037%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Utrecht
Aug 3010:15
PSV Eindhoven
Early projection
13.7027%
X4.3523%
22.0050%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Willem II
Aug 3012:30
Heerenveen
Early projection
13.3330%
X4.0025%
22.2245%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Feyenoord
Aug 3012:30
ADO Den Haag
Early projection
11.6461%
X5.2619%
25.0020%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Telstar
Aug 3014:45
Ajax
Early projection
12.8635%
X3.5728%
22.7037%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
EredivisieNetherlands
Cambuur
Aug 3018:00
Twente
Early projection
12.3343%
X4.0025%
23.1332%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access