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  1. Home
  2. Copa del Rey
  3. Alaves vs Real Sociedad

Alaves vs Real Sociedad

Result • Copa del Rey·Alaves·Real Sociedad

Copa del Rey
Copa del Rey
Feb 4, 2026
20:00
low Confidence
Alaves

Alaves

Home
Final Score
2-3
Predicted: 1-1
Final Score
2-3
Predicted: 1-1
Odds
12.88
X3.00
22.45
Stadium
Estadio Mendizorrotza
low Confidence
WINNER
Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Away
Odds
12.88
X3.00
22.45
Stadium
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Win Probabilities
35%
Alaves
30%
Draw
35%
Real Sociedad
Home2.8835%
Draw3.0030%
Away2.4535%

Oracle's Vision

low Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Alaves's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa del Rey fixture between Alaves and Real Sociedad using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Alaves a 35% win probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and Real Sociedad a 35% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-1. Both teams to score probability: 50%. This prediction is rated as low confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 50%

Match Events

  1. Goal: A. RebbachAssist: A. Manas
    8'
    Goal: A. RebbachAlaves · Assist: A. Manas
  2. 15'
    Goal: M. OyarzabalReal Sociedad · Assist: G. Guedes
    Goal: M. OyarzabalAssist: G. Guedes
  3. 28'
    Yellow Card: B. TurrientesReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: B. Turrientes
  4. Penalty: T. Martinez (Penalty)
    29'
    Penalty: T. Martinez (Penalty)Alaves
  5. 37'
    Yellow Card: G. GuedesReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: G. Guedes
  6. 45+1'
    Yellow Card: A. MunozReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: A. Munoz
  7. 59'
    Substitution: A. OdriozolaReal Sociedad · Out: J. Aramburu
    Substitution: A. OdriozolaOut: J. Aramburu
  8. 59'
    Substitution: L. SucicReal Sociedad · Out: C. Soler
    Substitution: L. SucicOut: C. Soler
  9. 66'
    Yellow Card: D. Caleta-CarReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: D. Caleta-Car
  10. Missed penalty: T. MartinezMissed penalty
    67'
    Missed penalty: T. MartinezAlaves · Missed penalty
  11. Substitution: L. BoyeOut: A. Manas
    71'
    Substitution: L. BoyeAlaves · Out: A. Manas
  12. Substitution: P. IbanezOut: Calebe
    71'
    Substitution: P. IbanezAlaves · Out: Calebe
  13. 74'
    Substitution: O. OskarssonReal Sociedad · Out: B. Mendez
    Substitution: O. OskarssonOut: B. Mendez
  14. 74'
    Substitution: D. DiazReal Sociedad · Out: A. Munoz
    Substitution: D. DiazOut: A. Munoz
  15. Yellow Card: A. Guevara
    75'
    Yellow Card: A. GuevaraAlaves
  16. 76'
    Goal: G. GuedesReal Sociedad · Assist: B. Turrientes
    Goal: G. GuedesAssist: B. Turrientes
  17. 80'
    Goal: O. OskarssonReal Sociedad · Assist: L. Sucic
    Goal: O. OskarssonAssist: L. Sucic
  18. Yellow Card: L. Boye
    83'
    Yellow Card: L. BoyeAlaves
  19. Substitution: C. AlenaOut: D. Suarez
    84'
    Substitution: C. AlenaAlaves · Out: D. Suarez
  20. Substitution: A. PerezOut: A. Rebbach
    84'
    Substitution: A. PerezAlaves · Out: A. Rebbach
  21. Substitution: J. GuridiOut: A. Guevara
    90+1'
    Substitution: J. GuridiAlaves · Out: A. Guevara
  22. 90+2'
    Substitution: I. ZubeldiaReal Sociedad · Out: G. Guedes
    Substitution: I. ZubeldiaOut: G. Guedes
  23. Yellow Card: P. Ibanez
    90+8'
    Yellow Card: P. IbanezAlaves
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AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1Carlos Vicente vs Real Sociedad defense: Vicente's attacking threat will test Sociedad's defensive solidity.
2Mikel Oyarzabal vs Alaves midfield: Oyarzabal's creativity and goal-scoring ability will be key in breaking down Alaves's setup.
3Toni Martínez vs Sociedad center-backs: Martínez's presence in the box could challenge Sociedad's defensive line in aerial duels.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Alaves

  • Offensive output with 13 goals in last 5 matches
  • Home advantage with a rating of 0.55
  • Inconsistent form with WWLLD
  • Defensive data not available for recent matches

Real Sociedad

  • Strong recent form with DWWWD and only 3 goals against
  • Key player Mikel Oyarzabal with 5 goals and 3 assists
  • Away from home, reducing home advantage
  • Head-to-head history is even, with 4 wins but also 3 draws
Head-to-head →Injuries · AlavesInjuries · Real SociedadLive scores →

Statistical Context

Alaves

DLLWW
  • DSep 19, 26A · Athletic Club0-0
  • LSep 15, 26H · Valencia0-1
  • LSep 12, 26A · Racing Santander2-1
  • WSep 6, 26H · Osasuna5-2
  • WAug 28, 26H · Villarreal1-0

Real Sociedad

WLLWD
  • WSep 20, 26A · Valencia2-3
  • LSep 17, 26H · Bournemouth1-2
  • LSep 13, 26H · Atletico Madrid0-3
  • WSep 7, 26A · Elche2-3
  • DSep 3, 26H · Celta Vigo0-0

Head to Head

4
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
  • Feb 4, 26Alaves – Real Sociedad2-3
  • Dec 6, 25Alaves – Real Sociedad1-0
  • Apr 23, 25Alaves – Real Sociedad1-0
  • Aug 28, 24Real Sociedad – Alaves1-2
  • Jul 20, 24Alaves – Real Sociedad1-1

Season Statistics — 2026

AlavesReal Sociedad
Played77
Goals Scored119
Goals Conceded613
Avg Scored1.61.3
Avg Conceded0.91.9
Clean Sheets31

Alaves vs Real Sociedad — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Alaves's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Based on the data, the match between Alaves and Real Sociedad is highly balanced, with no clear favorite indicated by the market probabilities. The predicted outcome is a draw, as both teams show strengths that could neutralize each other.

Form Analysis: Alaves has a mixed form of WWLLD, scoring 13 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating offensive capability but inconsistency. Real Sociedad has a stronger form of DWWWD, with 10 goals for and only 3 against, demonstrating solid defensive performance and momentum.

Key Factors: 1. Real Sociedad's superior recent form and defensive record provide an edge. 2. The head-to-head history is evenly split, with Real Sociedad having 4 wins to Alaves's 3 in the last 5 meetings, suggesting no psychological advantage. 3. Minor weather conditions favoring physical play could benefit both teams equally, given their similar 4-4-2 formations.

Conclusion: The data points to a closely contested match, with Real Sociedad's form slightly offsetting Alaves's home advantage, leading to a balanced prediction favoring a draw as the most likely outcome.

Win Probabilities: Alaves: 35% · Draw: 30% · Real Sociedad: 35%

Predicted Score: 1-1 (20.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 40% · Under 2.5: 60% · BTTS: 50%

H2H: Alaves wins: 4 · Draws: 3 · Real Sociedad wins: 3

Form (latest first): Alaves: DLLWW · Real Sociedad: WLLWD

  • Carlos Vicente vs Real Sociedad defense: Vicente's attacking threat will test Sociedad's defensive solidity.
  • Mikel Oyarzabal vs Alaves midfield: Oyarzabal's creativity and goal-scoring ability will be key in breaking down Alaves's setup.
  • Toni Martínez vs Sociedad center-backs: Martínez's presence in the box could challenge Sociedad's defensive line in aerial duels.

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