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  1. Home
  2. Copa del Rey
  3. Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Result • Copa del Rey·Barcelona·Atletico Madrid

Copa del Rey
Copa del Rey
Mar 3, 2026
20:00
medium Confidence
WINNER
Barcelona

Barcelona

Home
Final Score
3-0
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
3-0
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.45
X5.50
25.50
Stadium
Camp Nou
medium Confidence
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Away
Odds
11.45
X5.50
25.50
Stadium
Camp Nou
Win Probabilities
65%
Barcelona
18%
Draw
17%
Atletico Madrid
Home1.4565%
Draw5.5018%
Away5.5017%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Barcelona's home fortress and historical edge prevailing, with ancient wisdom revealing a narrow victory amidst high-scoring drama.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa del Rey fixture between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Barcelona a 65% win probability, a 18% chance of a draw, and Atletico Madrid a 17% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 50%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 50%

Match Events

  1. Substitution: A. BaldeOut: J. Kounde
    13'
    Substitution: A. BaldeBarcelona · Out: J. Kounde
  2. Goal: M. BernalAssist: Lamine Yamal
    29'
    Goal: M. BernalBarcelona · Assist: Lamine Yamal
  3. Penalty: Raphinha (Penalty)
    45+5'
    Penalty: Raphinha (Penalty)Barcelona
  4. 58'
    Substitution: A. SorlothAtletico Madrid · Out: Koke
    Substitution: A. SorlothOut: Koke
  5. 58'
    Substitution: N. MolinaAtletico Madrid · Out: A. Lookman
    Substitution: N. MolinaOut: A. Lookman
  6. Substitution: D. OlmoOut: Fermin
    64'
    Substitution: D. OlmoBarcelona · Out: Fermin
  7. Substitution: M. RashfordOut: F. Torres
    64'
    Substitution: M. RashfordBarcelona · Out: F. Torres
  8. Yellow Card: D. Olmo
    66'
    Yellow Card: D. OlmoBarcelona
  9. Yellow Card: J. Cancelo
    67'
    Yellow Card: J. CanceloBarcelona
  10. 69'
    Substitution: A. BaenaAtletico Madrid · Out: J. Alvarez
    Substitution: A. BaenaOut: J. Alvarez
  11. Substitution: R. AraujoOut: A. Balde
    71'
    Substitution: R. AraujoBarcelona · Out: A. Balde
  12. Goal: M. BernalAssist: J. Cancelo
    72'
    Goal: M. BernalBarcelona · Assist: J. Cancelo
  13. 76'
    Substitution: J. M. GimenezAtletico Madrid · Out: G. Simeone
    Substitution: J. M. GimenezOut: G. Simeone
  14. Yellow Card: Lamine Yamal
    90+3'
    Yellow Card: Lamine YamalBarcelona
  15. 90+5'
    Yellow Card: A. BaenaAtletico Madrid
    Yellow Card: A. Baena
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1R. Lewandowski vs Atletico Madrid defense: Lewandowski's goal-scoring ability against Atletico's defensive line will be crucial.
2Lamine Yamal vs Atletico Madrid midfield: Yamal's assists and creativity in midfield could disrupt Atletico's 4-4-2 setup.
3J. Álvarez vs Barcelona defense: Álvarez's high goal tally poses a threat to Barcelona's vulnerable defense.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Barcelona

  • Strong home advantage at Camp Nou
  • Historical dominance in head-to-head matches
  • Defensive vulnerabilities with 0 clean sheets in last 5 matches
  • Lower average goals scored (1.6) compared to opponent

Atletico Madrid

  • High goal-scoring ability with 13 goals in last 5 matches
  • Strong defensive record with only 2 goals conceded in last 5 matches
  • Inconsistent recent form with a loss streak
  • Lower head-to-head record against Barcelona
Head-to-head →Injuries · BarcelonaInjuries · Atletico MadridLive scores →

Statistical Context

Barcelona

WWWWW
  • WSep 19, 26A · Sevilla1-3
  • WSep 16, 26H · Racing Santander7-2
  • WSep 13, 26A · Levante2-4
  • WSep 9, 26H · Feyenoord5-1
  • WSep 6, 26A · Valencia0-5

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL
  • WSep 20, 26H · Real Madrid2-1
  • WSep 16, 26H · Osasuna4-0
  • WSep 13, 26A · Real Sociedad0-3
  • LSep 9, 26A · Liverpool2-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · Athletic Club3-0

Head to Head

7
Barcelona
1
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
  • Apr 4, 26Atletico Madrid – Barcelona1-2
  • Mar 3, 26Barcelona – Atletico Madrid3-0
  • Feb 12, 26Atletico Madrid – Barcelona4-0
  • Dec 2, 25Barcelona – Atletico Madrid3-1
  • Apr 2, 25Atletico Madrid – Barcelona0-1

Season Statistics — 2026

BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
Played77
Goals Scored3116
Goals Conceded77
Avg Scored4.42.3
Avg Conceded1.01.0
Clean Sheets33

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

BarcelonaAtletico Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals10/106/10
Both Teams Scored8/104/10
Clean Sheets1/104/10

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Barcelona's home fortress and historical edge prevailing, with ancient wisdom revealing a narrow victory amidst high-scoring drama.

Based on the structured data, Barcelona is predicted to win this Copa del Rey match against Atletico Madrid at Camp Nou, with a 65% probability, aligning with the bookmaker-implied odds and considering key factors from the data.

Form Analysis: Barcelona's recent form shows a strong performance with 4 wins in their last 5 matches (WWLWW), scoring 6 goals and conceding 5, indicating offensive capability but defensive vulnerabilities. Atletico Madrid has a mixed form (WWLLD) with 13 goals scored and 2 conceded in their last 5 matches, highlighting high scoring but inconsistency, as they are on a 1-loss streak and have only 1 clean sheet.

Key Factors: 1. Home advantage at Camp Nou with a rating of 0.55 provides Barcelona a significant edge. 2. Head-to-head history favors Barcelona with 7 wins in the last 5 meetings, suggesting psychological dominance. 3. No significant injuries or suspensions for either team, ensuring full-strength lineups.

Conclusion: The data-driven verdict supports a Barcelona victory due to home advantage, historical superiority, and consistent form, despite Atletico's higher goal-scoring in recent matches.

Win Probabilities: Barcelona: 65% · Draw: 18% · Atletico Madrid: 17%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (20.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 50%

H2H: Barcelona wins: 7 · Draws: 1 · Atletico Madrid wins: 2

Form (latest first): Barcelona: WWWWW · Atletico Madrid: WWWLL

  • R. Lewandowski vs Atletico Madrid defense: Lewandowski's goal-scoring ability against Atletico's defensive line will be crucial.
  • Lamine Yamal vs Atletico Madrid midfield: Yamal's assists and creativity in midfield could disrupt Atletico's 4-4-2 setup.
  • J. Álvarez vs Barcelona defense: Álvarez's high goal tally poses a threat to Barcelona's vulnerable defense.

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