Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

ResultCopa del Rey

Copa del Rey
Copa del Rey
18 Apr 2026
19:00
DRAW
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

🏠Home
Final Score
2-2
Predicted: 1-0
DRAW
Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

✈️Away
Odds
11.90
X3.70
23.90
🏟️Stadium
Estadio de la Cartuja
Win Probabilities
Home49%
Draw31%
Away20%
🔮

Oracle's Vision

The Oracle sees Atletico Madrid's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa del Rey fixture between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Atletico Madrid a 49% win probability, a 31% chance of a draw, and Real Sociedad a 20% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-0. Both teams to score probability: 50%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

Atletico Madrid 49%Draw 31%Real Sociedad 20%Predicted Score: 1-0BTTS: 50%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

Atletico Madrid

HOME
Strengths
  • Strong head-to-head record with 5 wins in last 5 meetings
  • Higher attack rating (57%) compared to opponent
  • Key players like J. Álvarez with 7 goals and 2 assists
Weaknesses
  • Recent 2-loss streak indicating form struggles
  • Lower form rating (44%) compared to opponent
  • Average goals conceded of 1.8 per match in last 5 games

Real Sociedad

AWAY
Strengths
  • Higher form rating (56%) in recent matches
  • Average goals scored of 2.2 per match in last 5 games
  • Key player Mikel Oyarzabal with 5 goals and 3 assists
Weaknesses
  • Poor head-to-head record with no wins in last 5 meetings
  • Lower attack rating (43%) compared to opponent
  • Average goals conceded of 2.0 per match in last 5 games

Key Player Battles

⚔️J. Álvarez vs Real Sociedad defense: Álvarez's scoring ability (7 goals) will test Sociedad's defense, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match.
⚔️Mikel Oyarzabal vs Atletico Madrid defense: Oyarzabal's playmaking (5 goals, 3 assists) challenges Atletico's defense, which has conceded 1.8 goals on average recently.
⚔️Midfield battle in 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1: The tactical setup may influence control and transition opportunities, with Atletico's balanced midfield facing Sociedad's double pivot.

Combined Analysis

Multi-source prediction consensus

Medium Agreement

Moderate agreement on home win (47%).

Atletico Madrid Win47%
Draw38%
Real Sociedad Win15%

Key Insights

Reasoning behind the prediction

AI Analysis
High Confidence

Based on the data, Atletico Madrid is predicted to win this match, with a slight edge over a draw, as supported by market probabilities and API-Football model alignment.

Form Analysis: Atletico Madrid has a recent form of LLLWW with a 2-loss streak, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.8 per match. Real Sociedad has a form of DWLWL with a 1-draw streak, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 2.0 per match. Both teams have 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Key Factors: 1. Head-to-head dominance: Atletico Madrid has won 5 of the last 5 meetings, with no wins for Real Sociedad. 2. API-Football comparison shows Atletico Madrid with higher attack (57% vs 43%) and overall strength (61.8% vs 38.2%). 3. No significant injuries reported for either team, minimizing disruption.

Conclusion: The data indicates Atletico Madrid as the favorite, with a high likelihood of a win or draw, aligning with market and model predictions.

Statistical Context
Atletico Madrid

Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw

Team Comparison

Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
Strength
61%
38%
Attacking Potential
57%
43%
Defensive Potential
50%
50%
Poisson Distribution
50%
50%
H2H Strength
85%
15%
Goals H2H
73%
27%
Wins the Game
61%
38%

Atletico Madrid vs Real SociedadMatch Analysis

The Oracle sees Atletico Madrid's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Based on the data, Atletico Madrid is predicted to win this match, with a slight edge over a draw, as supported by market probabilities and API-Football model alignment.

Form Analysis: Atletico Madrid has a recent form of LLLWW with a 2-loss streak, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.8 per match. Real Sociedad has a form of DWLWL with a 1-draw streak, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 2.0 per match. Both teams have 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Key Factors: 1. Head-to-head dominance: Atletico Madrid has won 5 of the last 5 meetings, with no wins for Real Sociedad. 2. API-Football comparison shows Atletico Madrid with higher attack (57% vs 43%) and overall strength (61.8% vs 38.2%). 3. No significant injuries reported for either team, minimizing disruption.

Conclusion: The data indicates Atletico Madrid as the favorite, with a high likelihood of a win or draw, aligning with market and model predictions.

Win Probabilities: Atletico Madrid: 49% · Draw: 31% · Real Sociedad: 20%

Predicted Score: 1-0 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 50%

H2H: Atletico Madrid wins: 5 · Draws: 4 · Real Sociedad wins: 0

Form: Atletico Madrid: LLWLL · Real Sociedad: LWLWD

  • J. Álvarez vs Real Sociedad defense: Álvarez's scoring ability (7 goals) will test Sociedad's defense, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match.
  • Mikel Oyarzabal vs Atletico Madrid defense: Oyarzabal's playmaking (5 goals, 3 assists) challenges Atletico's defense, which has conceded 1.8 goals on average recently.
  • Midfield battle in 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1: The tactical setup may influence control and transition opportunities, with Atletico's balanced midfield facing Sociedad's double pivot.