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  1. Home
  2. Copa del Rey
  3. Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Result • Copa del Rey·Atletico Madrid·Real Sociedad

Copa del Rey
Copa del Rey
Apr 18, 2026
19:00
high Confidence
DRAW
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Home
Final Score
2-2
Predicted: 1-0
Final Score
2-2
Predicted: 1-0
Odds
11.90
X3.70
23.90
Stadium
Estadio de la Cartuja
high Confidence
DRAW
Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Away
Odds
11.90
X3.70
23.90
Stadium
Estadio de la Cartuja
Win Probabilities
49%
Atletico Madrid
31%
Draw
20%
Real Sociedad
Home1.9049%
Draw3.7031%
Away3.9020%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Atletico Madrid's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa del Rey fixture between Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Atletico Madrid a 49% win probability, a 31% chance of a draw, and Real Sociedad a 20% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-0. Both teams to score probability: 50%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 50%

Match Events

  1. 1'
    Goal: A. BarrenetxeaReal Sociedad · Assist: G. Guedes
    Goal: A. BarrenetxeaAssist: G. Guedes
  2. Goal: A. LookmanAssist: A. Griezmann
    18'
    Goal: A. LookmanAtletico Madrid · Assist: A. Griezmann
  3. 30'
    Yellow Card: M. OyarzabalReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: M. Oyarzabal
  4. Yellow Card: R. Le Normand
    33'
    Yellow Card: R. Le NormandAtletico Madrid
  5. Yellow Card: J. Musso
    43'
    Yellow Card: J. MussoAtletico Madrid
  6. 45+1'
    Penalty: M. Oyarzabal (Penalty)Real Sociedad
    Penalty: M. Oyarzabal (Penalty)
  7. Substitution: N. GonzalezOut: A. Lookman
    62'
    Substitution: N. GonzalezAtletico Madrid · Out: A. Lookman
  8. Substitution: A. SorlothOut: M. Ruggeri
    62'
    Substitution: A. SorlothAtletico Madrid · Out: M. Ruggeri
  9. 68'
    Substitution: J. GorrotxategiReal Sociedad · Out: B. Turrientes
    Substitution: J. GorrotxategiOut: B. Turrientes
  10. 68'
    Substitution: P. MarinReal Sociedad · Out: A. Barrenetxea
    Substitution: P. MarinOut: A. Barrenetxea
  11. Substitution: A. BaenaOut: G. Simeone
    70'
    Substitution: A. BaenaAtletico Madrid · Out: G. Simeone
  12. Substitution: T. AlmadaOut: A. Griezmann
    70'
    Substitution: T. AlmadaAtletico Madrid · Out: A. Griezmann
  13. 78'
    Substitution: A. MunozReal Sociedad · Out: G. Guedes
    Substitution: A. MunozOut: G. Guedes
  14. 78'
    Substitution: O. OskarssonReal Sociedad · Out: M. Oyarzabal
    Substitution: O. OskarssonOut: M. Oyarzabal
  15. Substitution: J. CardosoOut: N. Molina
    78'
    Substitution: J. CardosoAtletico Madrid · Out: N. Molina
  16. Goal: J. AlvarezAssist: T. Almada
    83'
    Goal: J. AlvarezAtletico Madrid · Assist: T. Almada
  17. 88'
    Substitution: T. KuboReal Sociedad · Out: S. Gomez
    Substitution: T. KuboOut: S. Gomez
  18. Substitution: C. LengletOut: M. Llorente
    99'
    Substitution: C. LengletAtletico Madrid · Out: M. Llorente
  19. 113'
    Substitution: A. ElustondoReal Sociedad · Out: J. Aramburu
    Substitution: A. ElustondoOut: J. Aramburu
  20. 120'
    Yellow Card: J. GorrotxategiReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: J. Gorrotxategi
  21. 120+1'
    Yellow Card: A. ElustondoReal Sociedad
    Yellow Card: A. Elustondo
  22. Missed penalty: A. SorlothPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: A. SorlothAtletico Madrid · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
  23. Penalty: C. Soler (Penalty)Real Sociedad · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: C. Soler (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  24. Missed penalty: J. AlvarezPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: J. AlvarezAtletico Madrid · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
  25. Missed penalty: O. OskarssonReal Sociedad · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: O. OskarssonPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
  26. Penalty: N. Gonzalez (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: N. Gonzalez (Penalty)Atletico Madrid · Penalty shootout
  27. Penalty: L. Sucic (Penalty)Real Sociedad · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: L. Sucic (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  28. Penalty: T. Almada (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: T. Almada (Penalty)Atletico Madrid · Penalty shootout
  29. Penalty: A. Munoz (Penalty)Real Sociedad · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: A. Munoz (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  30. Penalty: A. Baena (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: A. Baena (Penalty)Atletico Madrid · Penalty shootout
  31. Penalty: P. Marin (Penalty)Real Sociedad · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: P. Marin (Penalty)Penalty shootout
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1J. Álvarez vs Real Sociedad defense: Álvarez's scoring ability (7 goals) will test Sociedad's defense, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match.
2Mikel Oyarzabal vs Atletico Madrid defense: Oyarzabal's playmaking (5 goals, 3 assists) challenges Atletico's defense, which has conceded 1.8 goals on average recently.
3Midfield battle in 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1: The tactical setup may influence control and transition opportunities, with Atletico's balanced midfield facing Sociedad's double pivot.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Atletico Madrid

  • Strong head-to-head record with 5 wins in last 5 meetings
  • Higher attack rating (57%) compared to opponent
  • Recent 2-loss streak indicating form struggles
  • Lower form rating (44%) compared to opponent

Real Sociedad

  • Higher form rating (56%) in recent matches
  • Average goals scored of 2.2 per match in last 5 games
  • Poor head-to-head record with no wins in last 5 meetings
  • Lower attack rating (43%) compared to opponent

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
49%
API-Football
45%
47%
Atletico Madrid473815

Moderate agreement on home win (47%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Based on the data, Atletico Madrid is predicted to win this match, with a slight edge over a draw, as supported by market probabilities and API-Football model alignment.

Form Analysis: Atletico Madrid has a recent form of LLLWW with a 2-loss streak, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.8 per match. Real Sociedad has a form of DWLWL with a 1-draw streak, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 2.0 per match. Both teams have 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Key Factors: 1. Head-to-head dominance: Atletico Madrid has won 5 of the last 5 meetings, with no wins for Real Sociedad. 2. API-Football comparison shows Atletico Madrid with higher attack (57% vs 43%) and overall strength (61.8% vs 38.2%). 3. No significant injuries reported for either team, minimizing disruption.

Conclusion: The data indicates Atletico Madrid as the favorite, with a high likelihood of a win or draw, aligning with market and model predictions.

Statistical ContextAtletico Madrid

Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
61%Strength38%
57%Attacking Potential43%
50%Defensive Potential50%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
85%H2H Strength15%
73%Goals H2H27%
61%Wins the Game38%
Head-to-head →Injuries · Atletico MadridInjuries · Real SociedadLive scores →

Statistical Context

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL
  • WSep 20, 26H · Real Madrid2-1
  • WSep 16, 26H · Osasuna4-0
  • WSep 13, 26A · Real Sociedad0-3
  • LSep 9, 26A · Liverpool2-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · Athletic Club3-0

Real Sociedad

WLLWD
  • WSep 20, 26A · Valencia2-3
  • LSep 17, 26H · Bournemouth1-2
  • LSep 13, 26H · Atletico Madrid0-3
  • WSep 7, 26A · Elche2-3
  • DSep 3, 26H · Celta Vigo0-0

Head to Head

5
Atletico Madrid
4
Draws
0
Real Sociedad
  • Apr 18, 26Atletico Madrid – Real Sociedad2-2
  • Mar 7, 26Atletico Madrid – Real Sociedad3-2
  • Jan 4, 26Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid1-1
  • May 10, 25Atletico Madrid – Real Sociedad4-0
  • Oct 6, 24Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid1-1

Season Statistics — 2026

Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
Played77
Goals Scored169
Goals Conceded713
Avg Scored2.31.3
Avg Conceded1.01.9
Clean Sheets31

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
Over 2.5 Goals6/10—
Both Teams Scored4/10—
Clean Sheets4/10—

Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Atletico Madrid's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Real Sociedad, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Based on the data, Atletico Madrid is predicted to win this match, with a slight edge over a draw, as supported by market probabilities and API-Football model alignment.

Form Analysis: Atletico Madrid has a recent form of LLLWW with a 2-loss streak, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.8 per match. Real Sociedad has a form of DWLWL with a 1-draw streak, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 2.0 per match. Both teams have 1 clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Key Factors: 1. Head-to-head dominance: Atletico Madrid has won 5 of the last 5 meetings, with no wins for Real Sociedad. 2. API-Football comparison shows Atletico Madrid with higher attack (57% vs 43%) and overall strength (61.8% vs 38.2%). 3. No significant injuries reported for either team, minimizing disruption.

Conclusion: The data indicates Atletico Madrid as the favorite, with a high likelihood of a win or draw, aligning with market and model predictions.

Win Probabilities: Atletico Madrid: 49% · Draw: 31% · Real Sociedad: 20%

Predicted Score: 1-0 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 50%

H2H: Atletico Madrid wins: 5 · Draws: 4 · Real Sociedad wins: 0

Form (latest first): Atletico Madrid: WWWLL · Real Sociedad: WLLWD

  • J. Álvarez vs Real Sociedad defense: Álvarez's scoring ability (7 goals) will test Sociedad's defense, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per match.
  • Mikel Oyarzabal vs Atletico Madrid defense: Oyarzabal's playmaking (5 goals, 3 assists) challenges Atletico's defense, which has conceded 1.8 goals on average recently.
  • Midfield battle in 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1: The tactical setup may influence control and transition opportunities, with Atletico's balanced midfield facing Sociedad's double pivot.

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Copa del Rey

Copa del Rey

Spain15 · Upcoming Fixtures
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Numancia
Oct 2819:00
Oviedo
12.9434%
X3.0333%
23.0333%
Copa del ReySpain
Conquense
Oct 2819:00
Castellón
13.5728%
X3.3330%
22.3842%
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Don Benito
Oct 2819:00
Extremadura 1924
13.3330%
X2.9434%
22.7836%
Copa del ReySpain
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Oct 2819:00
UD Ourense
12.7836%
X3.1332%
23.1332%
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Navalcarnero
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Real Betis
13.3330%
X3.5728%
22.3842%
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Poblense
Oct 2819:00
AD Ceuta FC
13.0333%
X3.0333%
22.9434%
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Tudelano
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Zaragoza
13.3330%
X3.5728%
22.3842%
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Amorebieta
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UD Logroñés
12.3842%
X3.0333%
24.0025%
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Atlético Baleares
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Eldense
12.9434%
X3.0333%
23.0333%
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Badajoz
Oct 2819:00
Tenerife
12.9434%
X3.0333%
23.0333%
Copa del ReySpain
Coruxo
Oct 2819:00
Zamora
13.5728%
X3.3330%
22.3842%
Copa del ReySpain
Gimnástica Segoviana
Oct 2819:00
Cultural Leonesa
12.3842%
X3.0333%
24.0025%
Copa del ReySpain
Guijuelo
Oct 2819:00
Sporting Gijon
13.3330%
X3.5728%
22.3842%
Copa del ReySpain
Laredo
Oct 2819:00
Burgos
12.7836%
X3.3330%
22.9434%
Copa del ReySpain
Peña Sport
Oct 2819:00
Huesca
13.0333%
X3.0333%
22.9434%

Betting Tips

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