Hortaleza are the narrow favourites for this Copa del Rey tie, with Güímar's severe form crisis and the head-to-head record pointing in the visitors' direction.
Form Analysis: Güímar arrive on a five-match losing streak, having failed to score in two of their last five and conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game. Hortaleza, by contrast, are unbeaten in their recent sample, keeping a clean sheet and conceding nothing across their last five outings. The momentum gap is stark.
Key Factors: The head-to-head record shows Hortaleza with the only win in the last five meetings, reinforcing their psychological edge. Güímar's defensive record — no clean sheets in five and a heavy concession rate — is the single biggest concern, while Hortaleza's defensive solidity gives them a platform to control the tie. The statistical model also leans toward Hortaleza, favouring a low-scoring contest with under 2.5 goals.
Conclusion: The data points to a controlled, low-scoring away performance. Hortaleza's defensive discipline and Güímar's attacking struggles suggest the visitors should edge this one, though the margin is not overwhelming and a draw remains a live possibility in a cup setting.
