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  1. Home
  2. Supercopa de España
  3. Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Result • Supercopa de España·Barcelona·Real Madrid

Supercopa de España
Supercopa de España
Jan 11, 2026
19:00
medium Confidence
WINNER
Barcelona

Barcelona

Home
Final Score
3-2
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
3-2
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.95
X3.90
23.50
Stadium
Alinma Stadium
medium Confidence
Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Away
Odds
11.95
X3.90
23.50
Stadium
Alinma Stadium
Win Probabilities
49%
Barcelona
24%
Draw
27%
Real Madrid
Home1.9549%
Draw3.9024%
Away3.5027%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Barcelona's winning streak as a beacon of victory, with historical clashes favoring their resolve. Ancient wisdom reveals that full squads and form shall decide this duel under clear skies.

Our AI model analyzes this Supercopa de España fixture between Barcelona and Real Madrid using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Barcelona a 49% win probability, a 24% chance of a draw, and Real Madrid a 27% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 60%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 60%

Match Events

  1. Goal: RaphinhaAssist: Fermin
    36'
    Goal: RaphinhaBarcelona · Assist: Fermin
  2. 45+2'
    Goal: Vinicius JuniorReal Madrid · Assist: G. Garcia
    Goal: Vinicius JuniorAssist: G. Garcia
  3. Goal: R. LewandowskiAssist: Pedri
    45+4'
    Goal: R. LewandowskiBarcelona · Assist: Pedri
  4. 45+6'
    Goal: G. GarciaReal Madrid
    Goal: G. Garcia
  5. 57'
    Yellow Card: R. AsencioReal Madrid
    Yellow Card: R. Asencio
  6. Yellow Card: E. Garcia
    57'
    Yellow Card: E. GarciaBarcelona
  7. 57'
    Yellow Card: F. ValverdeReal Madrid
    Yellow Card: F. Valverde
  8. Substitution: F. TorresOut: R. Lewandowski
    66'
    Substitution: F. TorresBarcelona · Out: R. Lewandowski
  9. Substitution: D. OlmoOut: Fermin
    66'
    Substitution: D. OlmoBarcelona · Out: Fermin
  10. 68'
    Substitution: A. GulerReal Madrid · Out: F. Valverde
    Substitution: A. GulerOut: F. Valverde
  11. Goal: Raphinha
    73'
    Goal: RaphinhaBarcelona
  12. 76'
    Substitution: K. MbappeReal Madrid · Out: G. Garcia
    Substitution: K. MbappeOut: G. Garcia
  13. 76'
    Substitution: D. AlabaReal Madrid · Out: D. Huijsen
    Substitution: D. AlabaOut: D. Huijsen
  14. 82'
    Substitution: D. CeballosReal Madrid · Out: E. Camavinga
    Substitution: D. CeballosOut: E. Camavinga
  15. 82'
    Substitution: F. MastantuonoReal Madrid · Out: Vinicius Junior
    Substitution: F. MastantuonoOut: Vinicius Junior
  16. 82'
    Yellow Card: A. CarrerasReal Madrid
    Yellow Card: A. Carreras
  17. Substitution: M. RashfordOut: Raphinha
    83'
    Substitution: M. RashfordBarcelona · Out: Raphinha
  18. Substitution: G. MartinOut: E. Garcia
    83'
    Substitution: G. MartinBarcelona · Out: E. Garcia
  19. Yellow Card: Pedri
    86'
    Yellow Card: PedriBarcelona
  20. Red Card: F. de Jong
    90+1'
    Red Card: F. de JongBarcelona
  21. Substitution: R. AraujoOut: Lamine Yamal
    90+3'
    Substitution: R. AraujoBarcelona · Out: Lamine Yamal
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AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1R. Lewandowski vs Real Madrid Defense: Lewandowski's goal-scoring ability will test Real Madrid's defensive organization.
2Kylian Mbappé vs Barcelona Defense: Mbappé's speed and finishing pose a significant threat to Barcelona's backline.
3Lamine Yamal vs Real Madrid Midfield: Yamal's creativity and assists could be key in breaking down Real Madrid's midfield setup.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Barcelona

  • Strong recent form with five consecutive wins
  • Historical head-to-head advantage over Real Madrid
  • Goals against data not fully available in recent form
  • Home advantage rating of 0.55 is moderate, not high

Real Madrid

  • Good recent form with four wins in last five matches
  • Key players like Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior provide high attacking threat
  • Recent loss in form may impact confidence
  • Head-to-head record shows fewer wins compared to Barcelona
Head-to-head →Injuries · BarcelonaInjuries · Real MadridLive scores →

Statistical Context

Barcelona

WWWWW
  • WSep 19, 26A · Sevilla1-3
  • WSep 16, 26H · Racing Santander7-2
  • WSep 13, 26A · Levante2-4
  • WSep 9, 26H · Feyenoord5-1
  • WSep 6, 26A · Valencia0-5

Real Madrid

LWWWL
  • LSep 20, 26A · Atletico Madrid2-1
  • WSep 15, 26A · Elche2-3
  • WSep 12, 26H · Rayo Vallecano4-1
  • WSep 8, 26H · Inter2-1
  • LSep 4, 26A · Real Betis1-0

Head to Head

7
Barcelona
0
Draws
3
Real Madrid
  • May 10, 26Barcelona – Real Madrid2-0
  • Jan 11, 26Barcelona – Real Madrid3-2
  • Oct 26, 25Real Madrid – Barcelona2-1
  • May 11, 25Barcelona – Real Madrid4-3
  • Apr 26, 25Barcelona – Real Madrid3-2

Season Statistics — 2026

BarcelonaReal Madrid
Played77
Goals Scored3118
Goals Conceded78
Avg Scored4.42.6
Avg Conceded1.01.1
Clean Sheets31

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

BarcelonaReal Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals10/105/10
Both Teams Scored8/104/10
Clean Sheets1/104/10

Barcelona vs Real Madrid — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Barcelona's winning streak as a beacon of victory, with historical clashes favoring their resolve. Ancient wisdom reveals that full squads and form shall decide this duel under clear skies.

Based on the structured data, Barcelona is predicted to win this match. The market probabilities show Barcelona with a 49% chance of winning, Real Madrid with 27%, and a draw at 24%, while the API-Football model also predicts Barcelona as the winner with 45% probability for a home win, though it suggests a higher draw probability of 45%.

Form Analysis: Barcelona's form is superior with five consecutive wins (WWWWW), indicating strong momentum. Real Madrid's form is also good with four wins in their last five matches (WWWLW), but they have a recent loss, which may affect confidence. Barcelona's goals for in recent matches are listed as 2, while Real Madrid's are 3, but specific goals against data is not fully provided for Barcelona.

Key Factors: 1. Barcelona's excellent recent form with five straight wins gives them a psychological edge. 2. The head-to-head record shows Barcelona has won 6 of the last 10 meetings, with Real Madrid winning 4 and no draws, suggesting Barcelona has historically performed well in this rivalry. 3. No significant injuries or suspensions for either team, meaning both sides are at full strength, which favors the team with better form.

Conclusion: The data indicates Barcelona is the favorite to win, supported by their strong form and historical head-to-head advantage, with market and model probabilities aligning on this outcome despite some differences in draw probability.

Win Probabilities: Barcelona: 49% · Draw: 24% · Real Madrid: 27%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 60%

H2H: Barcelona wins: 7 · Draws: 0 · Real Madrid wins: 3

Form (latest first): Barcelona: WWWWW · Real Madrid: LWWWL

  • R. Lewandowski vs Real Madrid Defense: Lewandowski's goal-scoring ability will test Real Madrid's defensive organization.
  • Kylian Mbappé vs Barcelona Defense: Mbappé's speed and finishing pose a significant threat to Barcelona's backline.
  • Lamine Yamal vs Real Madrid Midfield: Yamal's creativity and assists could be key in breaking down Real Madrid's midfield setup.

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