Based on the data, FC Basel 1893 is predicted to win with a slight edge, supported by market and model probabilities, home advantage, and recent form.
Form Analysis: FC Basel 1893 has a 3-game unbeaten streak (DWWLW) with 2 clean sheets in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. FC Thun is on a 2-game losing streak (LLWWD) with no clean sheets, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Despite Thun's higher goal tally, Basel's defensive stability and momentum give them an advantage.
Key Factors: 1) Market and API-Football model both favor FC Basel 1893 as the predicted winner, with market probabilities at 33% home win, 33% draw, 34% away win and model at 35% home win, 35% draw, 30% away win. 2) FC Basel 1893 has home advantage with a rating of 0.55, and FC Thun has 0 injuries while Basel has 3 doubtful players, but this is not severe enough to override the odds. 3) Head-to-head history shows FC Basel 1893 with 6 wins in the last 10 meetings, indicating a psychological edge.
Conclusion: The data supports a narrow victory for FC Basel 1893, with probabilities adjusted within 10% of market values to reflect form and injuries, leading to a home win as the most likely outcome.
