Racing Montevideo host Penarol in the Primera División on Sunday, 4 October 2026. Our model makes Penarol the favourite at 43%, with the draw at 29% and Racing Montevideo at 28%.
Form and league position
Racing Montevideo sit 8th of 16 with 12 points from 8 games (9 scored, 7 conceded), recent form L-W-D-L. Penarol sit 4th of 16 with 16 points from 8 games (14 scored, 6 conceded), recent form W-W-W-W-D.
Head-to-head record
There is no recent head-to-head history between these two in our records, so past meetings carry no weight in this projection.
Goals outlook
Attack-versus-defence rates give an expected score of 1.1–1.2, about 2.2 goals in total. That puts Over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 46%.
Team news
No injuries or suspensions are reported for either squad.
What the market says
Bookmakers price Racing Montevideo at 3.25, the draw at 3.05 and Penarol at 2.15; those prices are blended into the probabilities above.
Prediction
Penarol to win (43%), most likely score 0-1.
This preview is a model projection built from league standings, recent form, goal rates, reported absences and, where available, bookmaker prices. It is refreshed automatically as new data arrives.
