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  1. Home
  2. MLS
  3. Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Result • MLS·Philadelphia Union·Atlanta United FC

MLS
MLS
Aug 1, 2026
23:30
medium Confidence
WINNER
Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union

Home
Final Score
3-2
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
3-2
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.67
X4.10
24.45
Stadium
Subaru Park
medium Confidence
Atlanta United FC

Atlanta United FC

Away
Odds
11.67
X4.10
24.45
Stadium
Subaru Park
Win Probabilities
53%
Philadelphia Union
29%
Draw
18%
Atlanta United FC
Home1.6753%
Draw4.1029%
Away4.4518%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

Philadelphia Union are strong favourites to win, backed by superior recent form and a dominant head-to-head record. The main risk is their defensive inconsistency, which could allow Atlanta to score.

Our AI model analyzes this MLS fixture between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Philadelphia Union a 53% win probability, a 29% chance of a draw, and Atlanta United FC a 18% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 55%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 55%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1J. Sery Larsen vs Atlanta's defense: The Union's top scorer will be crucial in breaking down a vulnerable Atlanta backline.
2A. Miranchuk vs Philadelphia's midfield: Atlanta's playmaker must find space to create chances against a well-organized home side.
3Philadelphia's wingers vs Atlanta's full-backs: The Union's wide players could exploit Atlanta's defensive frailties.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Philadelphia Union

  • Strong recent form with two consecutive wins
  • High average goals scored (2.4 per game)
  • Defensive vulnerability, conceding 2.4 goals per game
  • Low win rate overall (18%)

Atlanta United FC

  • Key player A. Miranchuk in good form with 5 goals and 2 assists
  • Slightly better defensive rating in team comparison (55%)
  • Poor recent form with four losses in five games
  • Low average goals scored (0.8 per game)

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
53%
API-Football
45%
49%
Philadelphia Union493714

Moderate agreement on home win (49%).

AI AnalysisMedium Confidence

Philadelphia Union are the clear favourites to win this MLS clash against Atlanta United FC, based on strong form, home advantage, and a dominant head-to-head record.

Form Analysis: Philadelphia Union come into this match on a two-game winning streak, while Atlanta United FC have lost four of their last five matches and are on a current loss streak. The Union have scored an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last five, compared to Atlanta's 0.8, highlighting a significant attacking disparity.

Key Factors: The Union have won five of the last ten head-to-head meetings, and Atlanta have failed to score in two of their last five games. Additionally, Philadelphia's home record, though modest, gives them an edge, while Atlanta's away form has been poor.

Conclusion: With the odds heavily favouring the home side and the statistical model also backing Philadelphia, a home win is the most likely outcome. Atlanta's struggles in front of goal and defensive frailties make an upset unlikely.

Statistical ContextPhiladelphia Union

Double chance : Philadelphia Union or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
Philadelphia UnionAtlanta United FC
63%Strength36%
75%Attacking Potential25%
45%Defensive Potential55%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
62%H2H Strength38%
57%Goals H2H43%
63%Wins the Game36%

Statistical Context

Philadelphia Union

WDDWW
  • WAug 29, 26A · New York Red Bulls1-3
  • DAug 23, 26A · Austin1-1
  • DAug 19, 26H · Inter Miami2-2
  • WAug 16, 26A · New York City FC2-3
  • WJul 25, 26H · Seattle Sounders1-0

Atlanta United FC

LWWWL
  • LAug 29, 26H · Charlotte0-2
  • WAug 23, 26H · Sporting Kansas City2-1
  • WAug 20, 26A · Minnesota United FC1-2
  • WAug 15, 26H · New York Red Bulls2-1
  • LJul 25, 26A · New England Revolution4-1

Head to Head

5
Philadelphia Union
3
Draws
2
Atlanta United FC
  • Mar 14, 26Atlanta United FC – Philadelphia Union3-1
  • May 17, 25Atlanta United FC – Philadelphia Union0-1
  • Apr 19, 25Philadelphia Union – Atlanta United FC3-0
  • Sep 28, 24Philadelphia Union – Atlanta United FC1-1
  • Apr 14, 24Atlanta United FC – Philadelphia Union2-2

Season Statistics — 2026

Philadelphia UnionAtlanta United FC
Played2122
Goals Scored3125
Goals Conceded3838
Avg Scored1.51.1
Avg Conceded1.81.7
Clean Sheets31

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC — Match Analysis

Philadelphia Union are strong favourites to win, backed by superior recent form and a dominant head-to-head record. The main risk is their defensive inconsistency, which could allow Atlanta to score.

Philadelphia Union are the clear favourites to win this MLS clash against Atlanta United FC, based on strong form, home advantage, and a dominant head-to-head record.

Form Analysis: Philadelphia Union come into this match on a two-game winning streak, while Atlanta United FC have lost four of their last five matches and are on a current loss streak. The Union have scored an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last five, compared to Atlanta's 0.8, highlighting a significant attacking disparity.

Key Factors: The Union have won five of the last ten head-to-head meetings, and Atlanta have failed to score in two of their last five games. Additionally, Philadelphia's home record, though modest, gives them an edge, while Atlanta's away form has been poor.

Conclusion: With the odds heavily favouring the home side and the statistical model also backing Philadelphia, a home win is the most likely outcome. Atlanta's struggles in front of goal and defensive frailties make an upset unlikely.

Win Probabilities: Philadelphia Union: 53% · Draw: 29% · Atlanta United FC: 18%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 60% · Under 2.5: 40% · BTTS: 55%

H2H: Philadelphia Union wins: 5 · Draws: 3 · Atlanta United FC wins: 2

Form (latest first): Philadelphia Union: WDDWW · Atlanta United FC: LWWWL

  • J. Sery Larsen vs Atlanta's defense: The Union's top scorer will be crucial in breaking down a vulnerable Atlanta backline.
  • A. Miranchuk vs Philadelphia's midfield: Atlanta's playmaker must find space to create chances against a well-organized home side.
  • Philadelphia's wingers vs Atlanta's full-backs: The Union's wide players could exploit Atlanta's defensive frailties.

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MLSUSA
New York City FC
Sep 423:30
Nashville SC
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
MLSUSA
Orlando City SC
Sep 523:30
San Diego
12.5040%
X3.7027%
23.0333%
MLSUSA
Philadelphia Union
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CF Montreal
11.5664%
X4.1724%
28.3312%
MLSUSA
Toronto FC
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Chicago Fire
13.8526%
X3.5728%
22.1746%
MLSUSA
Columbus Crew
Sep 523:30
Colorado Rapids
12.2245%
X3.4529%
23.8526%
MLSUSA
FC Cincinnati
Sep 523:30
DC United
11.5664%
X4.5522%
27.1414%
MLSUSA
Inter Miami
Sep 523:30
Atlanta United FC
11.5465%
X4.5522%
27.6913%
MLSUSA
Charlotte
Sep 523:30
Houston Dynamo
12.2744%
X3.3330%
23.8526%
MLSUSA
Seattle Sounders
Sep 600:30
New York Red Bulls
12.3343%
X3.5728%
23.4529%
MLSUSA
FC Dallas
Sep 600:30
Sporting Kansas City
11.5664%
X4.3523%
27.6913%
MLSUSA
Austin
Sep 600:30
San Jose Earthquakes
12.2744%
X3.4529%
23.7027%
MLSUSA
Los Angeles Galaxy
Sep 601:30
New England Revolution
12.0848%
X3.5728%
24.1724%
MLSUSA
Real Salt Lake
Sep 601:30
Los Angeles FC
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
MLSUSA
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sep 602:30
St. Louis City
11.5664%
X4.3523%
27.6913%
MLSUSA
Portland Timbers
Sep 602:30
Minnesota United FC
12.4441%
X3.5728%
23.2331%