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  1. Home
  2. MLS
  3. Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Result • MLS·Toronto FC·San Jose Earthquakes

MLS
MLS
May 2, 2026
17:00
high Confidence
DRAW
Toronto FC

Toronto FC

Home
Final Score
1-1
Predicted: 1-2
Final Score
1-1
Predicted: 1-2
Odds
13.40
X3.80
22.00
Stadium
BMO Field
high Confidence
DRAW
San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes

Away
Odds
13.40
X3.80
22.00
Stadium
BMO Field
Win Probabilities
24%
Toronto FC
30%
Draw
46%
San Jose Earthquakes
Home3.4024%
Draw3.8030%
Away2.0046%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a fiery San Jose storm sweeping through BMO Field, their five-win streak a harbinger of triumph. Toronto's home fortress may tremble, but the Earthquakes' momentum is unyielding.

Our AI model analyzes this MLS fixture between Toronto FC and San Jose Earthquakes using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Toronto FC a 24% win probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and San Jose Earthquakes a 46% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-2. Both teams to score probability: 55%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 55%

Match Events

  1. Goal: D. SalloiAssist: J. Osorio
    2'
    Goal: D. SalloiToronto FC · Assist: J. Osorio
  2. 13'
    Goal: P. JuddSan Jose Earthquakes · Assist: N. Tsakiris
    Goal: P. JuddAssist: N. Tsakiris
  3. 17'
    Yellow Card: B. LerouxSan Jose Earthquakes
    Yellow Card: B. Leroux
  4. 37'
    Yellow Card: R. VieiraSan Jose Earthquakes
    Yellow Card: R. Vieira
  5. Substitution: M. ChisholmOut: L. Stefanovic
    47'
    Substitution: M. ChisholmToronto FC · Out: L. Stefanovic
  6. 56'
    Substitution: N. FernandezSan Jose Earthquakes · Out: N. Tsakiris
    Substitution: N. FernandezOut: N. Tsakiris
  7. 68'
    Substitution: P. MarieSan Jose Earthquakes · Out: P. Judd
    Substitution: P. MarieOut: P. Judd
  8. 68'
    Substitution: I. HarkesSan Jose Earthquakes · Out: J. Skahan
    Substitution: I. HarkesOut: J. Skahan
  9. Substitution: D. EtienneOut: M. Henry
    70'
    Substitution: D. EtienneToronto FC · Out: M. Henry
  10. Substitution: D. KerrOut: E. Aristizabal
    70'
    Substitution: D. KerrToronto FC · Out: E. Aristizabal
  11. Yellow Card: J. Osorio
    77'
    Yellow Card: J. OsorioToronto FC
  12. Substitution: A. BossenberryOut: M. Cimermancic
    77'
    Substitution: A. BossenberryToronto FC · Out: M. Cimermancic
  13. Yellow Card: A. Coello
    90+1'
    Yellow Card: A. CoelloToronto FC
  14. Substitution: W. ZimmermanOut: Z. Monlouis
    90+5'
    Substitution: W. ZimmermanToronto FC · Out: Z. Monlouis
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
2N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
3N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Toronto FC

  • Home advantage at BMO Field
  • Historical H2H record (3 wins in last 5)
  • Poor recent form (1 loss streak)
  • Defensive fragility (2.2 goals conceded per game)

San Jose Earthquakes

  • 5-match winning streak
  • League-leading attack (3.6 goals per game)
  • Two doubtful players (Spivey, Ricketts)
  • Potential complacency due to dominant form

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
46%
API-Football
45%
46%
San Jose Earthquakes173846

Moderate agreement on away win (46%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

The analysis points to a San Jose Earthquakes victory, given their dominant form and superior league standing.

Form Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes are on a 5-match winning streak, scoring 3.6 goals per game and conceding only 1.2. In contrast, Toronto FC have a 1-loss streak, conceding 2.2 goals per game with no clean sheets in their last 5. The API comparison gives San Jose a 71% form advantage.

Key Factors: San Jose's attack (62% advantage) and defense (69% advantage) are statistically superior. They sit 1st in the league with 27 points and +19 GD, while Toronto is 7th with 7 points and -2 GD. The 20-point gap is decisive. Although Toronto has home advantage, San Jose's momentum and overall strength outweigh it.

Conclusion: The data strongly supports an away win. San Jose's relentless form and statistical dominance make them clear favorites, despite Toronto's home record.

Statistical ContextSan Jose Earthquakes

Combo Winner : San Jose Earthquakes and +1.5 goals

Team Comparison

AI Powered
Toronto FCSan Jose Earthquakes
33%Strength66%
38%Attacking Potential62%
31%Defensive Potential69%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
36%H2H Strength64%
46%Goals H2H54%
33%Wins the Game66%
Head-to-head →Injuries · Toronto FCInjuries · San Jose EarthquakesLive scores →

Statistical Context

Toronto FC

LLWDD
  • LSep 20, 26A · St. Louis City3-1
  • LSep 12, 26A · Orlando City SC3-0
  • WSep 9, 26H · Nashville SC2-1
  • DSep 5, 26H · Chicago Fire4-4
  • DAug 29, 26H · New York City FC1-1

San Jose Earthquakes

DWWDD
  • DSep 19, 26H · Los Angeles FC2-2
  • WSep 13, 26H · Houston Dynamo1-0
  • WSep 10, 26A · San Diego2-3
  • DSep 6, 26A · Austin1-1
  • DAug 30, 26A · Houston Dynamo0-0

Head to Head

3
Toronto FC
4
Draws
3
San Jose Earthquakes
  • Mar 26, 23San Jose Earthquakes – Toronto FC0-0
  • Jul 9, 22Toronto FC – San Jose Earthquakes2-2
  • Feb 29, 20San Jose Earthquakes – Toronto FC2-2
  • May 26, 19Toronto FC – San Jose Earthquakes1-2
  • Aug 19, 18San Jose Earthquakes – Toronto FC1-1

Season Statistics — 2026

Toronto FCSan Jose Earthquakes
Played2525
Goals Scored3844
Goals Conceded4636
Avg Scored1.51.8
Avg Conceded1.81.4
Clean Sheets37

Toronto FC vs San Jose Earthquakes — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a fiery San Jose storm sweeping through BMO Field, their five-win streak a harbinger of triumph. Toronto's home fortress may tremble, but the Earthquakes' momentum is unyielding.

The analysis points to a San Jose Earthquakes victory, given their dominant form and superior league standing.

Form Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes are on a 5-match winning streak, scoring 3.6 goals per game and conceding only 1.2. In contrast, Toronto FC have a 1-loss streak, conceding 2.2 goals per game with no clean sheets in their last 5. The API comparison gives San Jose a 71% form advantage.

Key Factors: San Jose's attack (62% advantage) and defense (69% advantage) are statistically superior. They sit 1st in the league with 27 points and +19 GD, while Toronto is 7th with 7 points and -2 GD. The 20-point gap is decisive. Although Toronto has home advantage, San Jose's momentum and overall strength outweigh it.

Conclusion: The data strongly supports an away win. San Jose's relentless form and statistical dominance make them clear favorites, despite Toronto's home record.

Win Probabilities: Toronto FC: 24% · Draw: 30% · San Jose Earthquakes: 46%

Predicted Score: 1-2 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 65% · Under 2.5: 35% · BTTS: 55%

H2H: Toronto FC wins: 3 · Draws: 4 · San Jose Earthquakes wins: 3

Form (latest first): Toronto FC: LLWDD · San Jose Earthquakes: DWWDD

  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.
  • N/A vs N/A: Key matchup data not available.

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USA15 · Upcoming Fixtures
MLSUSA
Inter Miami
Sep 2023:00
San Diego
11.8255%
X4.1724%
24.7621%
MLSUSA
Seattle Sounders
Sep 2401:30
Real Salt Lake
12.7836%
X3.2331%
23.0333%
MLSUSA
Philadelphia Union
Sep 2623:30
Orlando City SC
11.5664%
X4.3523%
27.6913%
MLSUSA
New York Red Bulls
Sep 2623:30
St. Louis City
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
MLSUSA
Atlanta United FC
Sep 2623:30
New York City FC
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
MLSUSA
CF Montreal
Sep 2623:30
FC Cincinnati
13.5728%
X3.2331%
22.4441%
MLSUSA
Charlotte
Sep 2623:30
Chicago Fire
12.4441%
X3.5728%
23.2331%
MLSUSA
Seattle Sounders
Sep 2700:30
Minnesota United FC
12.3842%
X3.7027%
23.2331%
MLSUSA
FC Dallas
Sep 2700:30
Los Angeles FC
12.5639%
X3.8526%
22.8635%
MLSUSA
Houston Dynamo
Sep 2700:30
Sporting Kansas City
11.5664%
X4.1724%
28.3312%
MLSUSA
Nashville SC
Sep 2700:30
Toronto FC
11.5664%
X4.1724%
28.3312%
MLSUSA
Austin
Sep 2700:30
San Diego
12.3842%
X3.2331%
23.7027%
MLSUSA
Real Salt Lake
Sep 2701:30
New England Revolution
12.4441%
X3.4529%
23.3330%
MLSUSA
San Jose Earthquakes
Sep 2702:30
Portland Timbers
Early projection
12.1347%
X4.1724%
23.4529%
MLSUSA
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sep 2702:30
DC United
Early projection
11.4370%
X6.2516%
27.1414%

Betting Tips

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