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  1. Home
  2. Africa Cup of Nations
  3. Mali vs Senegal

Mali vs Senegal

Result • Africa Cup of Nations·Mali·Senegal

Africa Cup of Nations
Africa Cup of Nations
Jan 9, 2026
16:00
medium Confidence
Mali

Mali

Home
Final Score
0-1
Predicted: 1-2
Final Score
0-1
Predicted: 1-2
Odds
16.50
X3.50
21.62
Stadium
Stade Ibn-Batouta
medium Confidence
WINNER
Senegal

Senegal

Away
Odds
16.50
X3.50
21.62
Stadium
Stade Ibn-Batouta
Win Probabilities
15%
Mali
27%
Draw
58%
Senegal
Home6.5015%
Draw3.5027%
Away1.6258%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Senegal's recent form as a guiding light to victory, with ancient wisdom revealing no obstacles in their path. The stars align for an away triumph under the sunny skies.

Our AI model analyzes this Africa Cup of Nations fixture between Mali and Senegal using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Mali a 15% win probability, a 27% chance of a draw, and Senegal a 58% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-2. Both teams to score probability: 45%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 45%

Match Events

  1. Yellow Card: Y. Bissouma
    23'
    Yellow Card: Y. BissoumaMali
  2. 27'
    Goal: I. NdiayeSenegal
    Goal: I. Ndiaye
  3. 29'
    Yellow Card: P. GueyeSenegal
    Yellow Card: P. Gueye
  4. Yellow Card: Y. Bissouma
    45+3'
    Yellow Card: Y. BissoumaMali
  5. Red Card: Y. Bissouma
    45+3'
    Red Card: Y. BissoumaMali
  6. Substitution: D. NeneOut: A. Haidara
    55'
    Substitution: D. NeneMali · Out: A. Haidara
  7. 56'
    Yellow Card: H. DiarraSenegal
    Yellow Card: H. Diarra
  8. 61'
    Yellow Card: H. DialloSenegal
    Yellow Card: H. Diallo
  9. 62'
    Substitution: P. CissSenegal · Out: H. Diarra
    Substitution: P. CissOut: H. Diarra
  10. 62'
    Substitution: L. CamaraSenegal · Out: P. Gueye
    Substitution: L. CamaraOut: P. Gueye
  11. Substitution: G. DiakiteOut: A. Dieng
    69'
    Substitution: G. DiakiteMali · Out: A. Dieng
  12. 75'
    Substitution: I. MbayeSenegal · Out: I. Ndiaye
    Substitution: I. MbayeOut: I. Ndiaye
  13. 75'
    Substitution: C. NdiayeSenegal · Out: H. Diallo
    Substitution: C. NdiayeOut: H. Diallo
  14. Substitution: K. DoumbiaOut: M. Sangare
    82'
    Substitution: K. DoumbiaMali · Out: M. Sangare
  15. Substitution: E. B. ToureOut: L. Sinayoko
    82'
    Substitution: E. B. ToureMali · Out: L. Sinayoko
  16. Substitution: M. DoumbiaOut: L. Coulibaly
    82'
    Substitution: M. DoumbiaMali · Out: L. Coulibaly
  17. 83'
    Yellow Card: I. MbayeSenegal
    Yellow Card: I. Mbaye
  18. Yellow Card: H. Traore
    90'
    Yellow Card: H. TraoreMali
  19. 90+3'
    Yellow Card: K. KoulibalySenegal
    Yellow Card: K. Koulibaly
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1N/A vs N/A: Midfield control will be crucial in this 4-3-3 vs 4-3-3 setup
2N/A vs N/A: Defensive organization against Senegal's attack
3N/A vs N/A: Attacking transitions in sunny conditions
Strengths · Weaknesses

Mali

  • Home advantage with a rating of 0.55
  • Balanced 4-3-3 formation
  • Inferior recent form compared to Senegal
  • Poor head-to-head record

Senegal

  • Strong recent form with high goal-scoring
  • Favorable head-to-head record
  • Playing away from home
  • N/A
Head-to-head →Injuries · MaliInjuries · SenegalLive scores →

Statistical Context

Mali

DDDD
  • DJan 3, 26H · Tunisia1-1
  • DDec 29, 25A · Comoros0-0
  • DDec 26, 25A · Morocco1-1
  • DDec 22, 25H · Zambia1-1

Senegal

LWLLW
  • LJul 1, 26A · Belgium3-2
  • WJun 26, 26H · Iraq5-0
  • LJun 23, 26A · Norway3-2
  • LJun 16, 26A · France3-1
  • WJan 18, 26H · Morocco1-0

Head to Head

0
Mali
0
Draws
1
Senegal
  • Mar 26, 19Senegal – Mali2-1

Season Statistics — 2025 · 2026

MaliSenegal
Played42
Goals Scored43
Goals Conceded36
Avg Scored1.01.5
Avg Conceded0.83.0
Clean Sheets10

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

MaliSenegal
Over 2.5 Goals—6/10
Both Teams Scored—4/10
Clean Sheets—6/10

Mali vs Senegal — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Senegal's recent form as a guiding light to victory, with ancient wisdom revealing no obstacles in their path. The stars align for an away triumph under the sunny skies.

Based on the structured data, Senegal is predicted to win this match. The market probabilities show Senegal with a 58% chance of victory, and the API-Football model also predicts Senegal as the winner, indicating strong consensus.

Form Analysis: Senegal's recent form is superior, with 10 goals scored and 2 conceded in their last 5 matches, compared to Mali's 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. This suggests Senegal has better offensive and defensive performance.

Key Factors: Senegal's strong recent form gives them momentum, the head-to-head record shows Senegal has won the last meeting, and there are no significant injuries or suspensions affecting either team, allowing both to field full-strength lineups.

Conclusion: The data consistently points to Senegal as the favorite, supported by bookmaker odds and statistical models, making them the most likely winner.

Win Probabilities: Mali: 15% · Draw: 27% · Senegal: 58%

Predicted Score: 1-2 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 40% · Under 2.5: 60% · BTTS: 45%

H2H: Mali wins: 0 · Draws: 0 · Senegal wins: 1

Form (latest first): Mali: DDDD · Senegal: LWLLW

  • N/A vs N/A: Midfield control will be crucial in this 4-3-3 vs 4-3-3 setup
  • N/A vs N/A: Defensive organization against Senegal's attack
  • N/A vs N/A: Attacking transitions in sunny conditions

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