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  1. Home
  2. Copa Libertadores
  3. Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion

Result • Copa Libertadores·Independiente del Valle·Libertad Asuncion

Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores
May 20, 2026
02:00
high Confidence
WINNER
Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle

Home
Final Score
4-1
Predicted: 2-0
Final Score
4-1
Predicted: 2-0
Odds
11.33
X5.00
29.50
Stadium
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
high Confidence
Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion

Away
Odds
11.33
X5.00
29.50
Stadium
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Win Probabilities
66%
Independiente del Valle
25%
Draw
9%
Libertad Asuncion
Home1.3366%
Draw5.0025%
Away9.509%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a clear path for Independiente del Valle, their momentum unbroken. Libertad's struggles deepen as the home side's defense holds firm.

Our AI model analyzes this Copa Libertadores fixture between Independiente del Valle and Libertad Asuncion using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Independiente del Valle a 66% win probability, a 25% chance of a draw, and Libertad Asuncion a 9% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-0. Both teams to score probability: 40%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 40%

Match Events

  1. Goal: J. Sornoza
    38'
    Goal: J. SornozaIndependiente del Valle
  2. Goal: C. GonzalezAssist: J. Sornoza
    43'
    Goal: C. GonzalezIndependiente del Valle · Assist: J. Sornoza
  3. 45+3'
    Goal: L. MelgarejoLibertad Asuncion
    Goal: L. Melgarejo
  4. 46'
    Substitution: J. BernalLibertad Asuncion · Out: R. Rojas
    Substitution: J. BernalOut: R. Rojas
  5. VAR: VAR · Goal Disallowed - FoulE. Pata
    56'
    VAR: VAR · Goal Disallowed - FoulIndependiente del Valle · E. Pata
  6. Goal: J. Lerma
    64'
    Goal: J. LermaIndependiente del Valle
  7. 66'
    Substitution: J. RecaldeLibertad Asuncion · Out: A. Fretes
    Substitution: J. RecaldeOut: A. Fretes
  8. 66'
    Substitution: G. AguilarLibertad Asuncion · Out: F. Carrizo
    Substitution: G. AguilarOut: F. Carrizo
  9. 68'
    Yellow Card: G. AguilarLibertad Asuncion
    Yellow Card: G. Aguilar
  10. 73'
    Substitution: H. CaballeroLibertad Asuncion · Out: T. Fernandez
    Substitution: H. CaballeroOut: T. Fernandez
  11. Substitution: R. BrionesOut: J. Lerma
    74'
    Substitution: R. BrionesIndependiente del Valle · Out: J. Lerma
  12. 79'
    Substitution: R. VillalbaLibertad Asuncion · Out: M. Fernandez
    Substitution: R. VillalbaOut: M. Fernandez
  13. Substitution: M. PerelloOut: E. Pata
    81'
    Substitution: M. PerelloIndependiente del Valle · Out: E. Pata
  14. Substitution: Y. OchoaOut: J. Sornoza
    81'
    Substitution: Y. OchoaIndependiente del Valle · Out: J. Sornoza
  15. Substitution: J. MendezOut: J. Alcivar
    84'
    Substitution: J. MendezIndependiente del Valle · Out: J. Alcivar
  16. Substitution: D. ReascoOut: C. Gonzalez
    84'
    Substitution: D. ReascoIndependiente del Valle · Out: C. Gonzalez
  17. Goal: D. ReascoAssist: M. Perello
    90+5'
    Goal: D. ReascoIndependiente del Valle · Assist: M. Perello
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AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1C. González vs Libertad defense: The home top scorer will test a vulnerable backline.
2Independiente midfield vs Libertad midfield: Control of the center will dictate the game.
3Libertad's counter-attack vs Independiente's high line: Speed vs defensive organization.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Independiente del Valle

  • Excellent recent form with 3 consecutive wins
  • Strong defense with 3 clean sheets in last 5
  • Inconsistent scoring output
  • Potential complacency as heavy favorite

Libertad Asuncion

  • Decent away form in league
  • Key player L. Melgarejo with 3 goals
  • Poor recent form with no wins in 5
  • Struggles to score, blanked in 2 of last 5

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
66%
API-Football
50%
58%
Independiente del Valle57385

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (58%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Independiente del Valle is the clear favorite to win this Copa Libertadores match against Libertad Asuncion, based on strong form, home advantage, and statistical dominance.

Form Analysis: Independiente del Valle is on a 3-match winning streak with 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5. In contrast, Libertad Asuncion has only 1 draw in their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8, with 2 matches failing to score. The home team's momentum is significantly stronger.

Key Factors: 1) Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle has won the only recent meeting. 2) Home advantage: Playing at Estadio Banco Guayaquil with strong support. 3) Defensive solidity: 3 clean sheets in last 5 for the home side vs. Libertad's attacking struggles.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable home win. The odds, form, and statistical comparison align, making Independiente del Valle the clear prediction.

Statistical ContextIndependiente del Valle

Winner : Independiente del Valle

Team Comparison

AI Powered
Independiente del ValleLibertad Asuncion
69%Strength30%
67%Attacking Potential33%
62%Defensive Potential38%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
100%H2H Strength50%
60%Goals H2H40%
69%Wins the Game30%
Head-to-head →Injuries · Independiente del ValleInjuries · Libertad AsuncionLive scores →

Statistical Context

Independiente del Valle

DWLWW
  • DSep 18, 26A · Flamengo1-1
  • WSep 13, 26A · Libertad2-3
  • LSep 11, 26H · Flamengo0-2
  • WSep 5, 26H · Macara3-1
  • WAug 26, 26H · Deportes Tolima3-1

Libertad Asuncion

WWLLD
  • WSep 11, 26A · 2 de Mayo0-2
  • WSep 6, 26H · Rubio NU4-2
  • LMay 27, 26H · UCV0-1
  • LMay 24, 26A · Nacional Asuncion2-1
  • DMay 14, 26H · 2 de Mayo0-0

Head to Head

1
Independiente del Valle
0
Draws
0
Libertad Asuncion
  • Apr 28, 26Libertad Asuncion – Independiente del Valle2-3

Season Statistics — 2026

Independiente del ValleLibertad Asuncion
Played95
Goals Scored154
Goals Conceded912
Avg Scored1.70.8
Avg Conceded1.02.4
Clean Sheets30

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a clear path for Independiente del Valle, their momentum unbroken. Libertad's struggles deepen as the home side's defense holds firm.

Independiente del Valle is the clear favorite to win this Copa Libertadores match against Libertad Asuncion, based on strong form, home advantage, and statistical dominance.

Form Analysis: Independiente del Valle is on a 3-match winning streak with 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5. In contrast, Libertad Asuncion has only 1 draw in their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8, with 2 matches failing to score. The home team's momentum is significantly stronger.

Key Factors: 1) Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle has won the only recent meeting. 2) Home advantage: Playing at Estadio Banco Guayaquil with strong support. 3) Defensive solidity: 3 clean sheets in last 5 for the home side vs. Libertad's attacking struggles.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable home win. The odds, form, and statistical comparison align, making Independiente del Valle the clear prediction.

Win Probabilities: Independiente del Valle: 66% · Draw: 25% · Libertad Asuncion: 9%

Predicted Score: 2-0 (20.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 40%

H2H: Independiente del Valle wins: 1 · Draws: 0 · Libertad Asuncion wins: 0

Form (latest first): Independiente del Valle: DWLWW · Libertad Asuncion: WWLLD

  • C. González vs Libertad defense: The home top scorer will test a vulnerable backline.
  • Independiente midfield vs Libertad midfield: Control of the center will dictate the game.
  • Libertad's counter-attack vs Independiente's high line: Speed vs defensive organization.

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