Ajax are the clear favourites for this UEFA Conference League encounter at Stadion Poljud, with the market pricing them as strong away favourites despite Hajduk Split's impressive recent form.
Form Analysis: Hajduk Split arrive in excellent shape with four wins from their last five matches, including three clean sheets, and have scored 14 goals while conceding just six. Ajax have also been productive in front of goal with 22 goals in five games, but their defensive record is concerning — they have kept no clean sheets in that span and conceded 10 goals. The Dutch side's recent form reads two draws, two wins and one loss, showing they are unbeaten in four but far from watertight at the back.
Key Factors: The most significant factor is the injury crisis in the Ajax camp, with a long list of absentees including A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, K. Dolberg, Caio Henrique and S. Adingra. This severely limits their rotation options and defensive solidity. However, the bookmakers still regard Ajax as strong favourites, likely due to the overall quality of their squad and the fact that Hajduk's domestic form may not translate directly to this level. Hajduk's home advantage is moderate, with a record of one win and one draw from two home games, and the weather conditions are neutral, favouring neither side's style.
Conclusion: While Hajduk Split's defensive resilience and current momentum give them a fighting chance, Ajax's superior attacking output and the market's clear lean towards the visitors make an away win the most probable outcome. The injury list for Ajax is a genuine concern, but their remaining attacking talent should still pose a significant threat. A narrow Ajax victory or a high-scoring draw are the most plausible scenarios.
