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  1. Home
  2. World Cup
  3. Ecuador vs Germany

Ecuador vs Germany

Result • World Cup·Ecuador·Germany

World Cup
World Cup
Jun 25, 2026
20:00
high Confidence
WINNER
Ecuador

Ecuador

Home
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 0-2
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 0-2
Odds
15.00
X4.75
21.55
Stadium
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
high Confidence
Germany

Germany

Away
Odds
15.00
X4.75
21.55
Stadium
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Win Probabilities
17%
Ecuador
26%
Draw
57%
Germany
Home5.0017%
Draw4.7526%
Away1.5557%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

Germany are strong favourites to win, backed by a five-match winning streak and a 100% attacking advantage over Ecuador. The main risk is Ecuador's defensive resilience, having kept two clean sheets in their last five games.

Our AI model analyzes this World Cup fixture between Ecuador and Germany using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Ecuador a 17% win probability, a 26% chance of a draw, and Germany a 57% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 0-2. Both teams to score probability: 40%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 40%

Match Events

  1. 2'
    Goal: Leroy SanéGermany · Assist: Florian Wirtz
    Goal: Leroy SanéAssist: Florian Wirtz
  2. Goal: Nilson AnguloAssist: Pedro Vite
    9'
    Goal: Nilson AnguloEcuador · Assist: Pedro Vite
  3. Yellow Card: Piero Hincapié
    43'
    Yellow Card: Piero HincapiéEcuador
  4. 44'
    Yellow Card: Aleksandar PavlovićGermany
    Yellow Card: Aleksandar Pavlović
  5. 45'
    Substitution: Angelo StillerGermany · Out: Aleksandar Pavlović
    Substitution: Angelo StillerOut: Aleksandar Pavlović
  6. 47'
    VAR: VAR · Penalty cancelledGermany · Kai Havertz
    VAR: VAR · Penalty cancelledKai Havertz
  7. Yellow Card: Alan Franco
    50'
    Yellow Card: Alan FrancoEcuador
  8. 60'
    Substitution: Deniz UndavGermany · Out: Kai Havertz
    Substitution: Deniz UndavOut: Kai Havertz
  9. 60'
    Substitution: Malick ThiawGermany · Out: Joshua Kimmich
    Substitution: Malick ThiawOut: Joshua Kimmich
  10. Substitution: Kevin RodriguezOut: Enner Valencia
    64'
    Substitution: Kevin RodriguezEcuador · Out: Enner Valencia
  11. Substitution: Angelo PreciadoOut: Alan Franco
    64'
    Substitution: Angelo PreciadoEcuador · Out: Alan Franco
  12. 64'
    Substitution: Maximilian BeierGermany · Out: Felix Nmecha
    Substitution: Maximilian BeierOut: Felix Nmecha
  13. Substitution: Pervis EstupinanOut: Piero Hincapié
    71'
    Substitution: Pervis EstupinanEcuador · Out: Piero Hincapié
  14. 73'
    Substitution: Pascal GroßGermany · Out: Florian Wirtz
    Substitution: Pascal GroßOut: Florian Wirtz
  15. Goal: Gonzalo PlataAssist: Kevin Rodriguez
    77'
    Goal: Gonzalo PlataEcuador · Assist: Kevin Rodriguez
  16. Substitution: Felix TorresOut: John Yeboah
    85'
    Substitution: Felix TorresEcuador · Out: John Yeboah
  17. Substitution: Jordy CaicedoOut: Nilson Angulo
    85'
    Substitution: Jordy CaicedoEcuador · Out: Nilson Angulo
  18. Yellow Card: Gonzalo Plata
    89'
    Yellow Card: Gonzalo PlataEcuador
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1Moisés Caicedo vs Ilkay Gündogan: The midfield duel will be crucial; Caicedo's defensive work must contain Gündogan's creativity.
2Pervis Estupiñán vs Jamal Musiala: Estupiñán's defensive discipline will be tested by Musiala's dribbling and movement.
3Enner Valencia vs Antonio Rüdiger: Valencia's pace and strength against Rüdiger's physicality and positioning.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Ecuador

  • Defensive organization
  • Compact shape
  • Lack of goalscoring form
  • Low confidence

Germany

  • Attacking firepower
  • Winning momentum
  • Defensive lapses on occasion
  • Over-reliance on key attackers

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
57%
API-Football
45%
51%
Germany143650

Moderate agreement on away win (51%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Germany are clear favourites to win this World Cup group stage match against Ecuador, backed by dominant recent form and superior attacking statistics.

Form Analysis: Germany arrive on a five-match winning streak, scoring 9 goals in their last 5 games while conceding only 2. Their win rate stands at 100% in that period. Ecuador, by contrast, have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, scoring just once and managing only 2 clean sheets. The momentum heavily favours the away side.

Key Factors: The API-Football comparison gives Germany an 86% advantage in form and a 100% advantage in attack, underscoring their offensive firepower. Ecuador's defensive rating (67%) is respectable but unlikely to withstand sustained pressure. No significant injuries affect either side, so both teams are at full strength.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Germany victory. Ecuador will need a near-perfect defensive display to contain a German side that has been prolific in front of goal. The odds and model agree, making Germany the strong pick.

Statistical ContextGermany

Winner : Germany

Team Comparison

AI Powered
EcuadorGermany
40%Strength59%
50%Attacking Potential100%
67%Defensive Potential33%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
50%H2H Strength50%
50%Goals H2H50%
40%Wins the Game59%
Head-to-head →Injuries · EcuadorInjuries · GermanyLive scores →

Statistical Context

Ecuador

LDL
  • LJul 1, 26A · Mexico2-0
  • DJun 21, 26H · Curaçao0-0
  • LJun 14, 26A · Ivory Coast1-0

Germany

DWW
  • DJun 29, 26H · Paraguay1-1
  • WJun 20, 26H · Ivory Coast2-1
  • WJun 14, 26H · Curaçao7-1

Season Statistics — 2026

EcuadorGermany
Played3—
Goals Scored2—
Goals Conceded2—
Avg Scored0.7—
Avg Conceded0.7—
Clean Sheets1—

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

EcuadorGermany
Over 2.5 Goals1/106/10
Both Teams Scored5/103/10
Clean Sheets5/105/10

Ecuador vs Germany — Match Analysis

Germany are strong favourites to win, backed by a five-match winning streak and a 100% attacking advantage over Ecuador. The main risk is Ecuador's defensive resilience, having kept two clean sheets in their last five games.

Germany are clear favourites to win this World Cup group stage match against Ecuador, backed by dominant recent form and superior attacking statistics.

Form Analysis: Germany arrive on a five-match winning streak, scoring 9 goals in their last 5 games while conceding only 2. Their win rate stands at 100% in that period. Ecuador, by contrast, have failed to win any of their last 5 matches, scoring just once and managing only 2 clean sheets. The momentum heavily favours the away side.

Key Factors: The API-Football comparison gives Germany an 86% advantage in form and a 100% advantage in attack, underscoring their offensive firepower. Ecuador's defensive rating (67%) is respectable but unlikely to withstand sustained pressure. No significant injuries affect either side, so both teams are at full strength.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Germany victory. Ecuador will need a near-perfect defensive display to contain a German side that has been prolific in front of goal. The odds and model agree, making Germany the strong pick.

Win Probabilities: Ecuador: 17% · Draw: 26% · Germany: 57%

Predicted Score: 0-2 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 40%

Form (latest first): Ecuador: LDL · Germany: DWW

  • Moisés Caicedo vs Ilkay Gündogan: The midfield duel will be crucial; Caicedo's defensive work must contain Gündogan's creativity.
  • Pervis Estupiñán vs Jamal Musiala: Estupiñán's defensive discipline will be tested by Musiala's dribbling and movement.
  • Enner Valencia vs Antonio Rüdiger: Valencia's pace and strength against Rüdiger's physicality and positioning.

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