Carioca table 2026
After matchday 6 · Projected from 2,000 season simulations · updated Sep 12, 10:42
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fluminense | 6 | +4 | 15 | LDWWW | 48 | 87% | 100% | 0% |
| 1 |  Botafogo | 6 | +1 | 9 | WDWLL | 33 | 1% | 34% | 4% |
| 2 |  Vasco DA Gama | 6 | +6 | 11 | DLWWD | 39 | 7% | 87% | 0% |
| 2 |  Madureira | 6 | -1 | 8 | LLWDD | 29 | 0% | 13% | 14% |
| 3 |  Volta Redonda | 6 | +4 | 11 | DLLDW | 38 | 5% | 86% | 0% |
| 3 |  Boavista SC | 6 | -2 | 8 | DLLDD | 29 | 0% | 10% | 13% |
| 4 |  Bangu | 6 | 0 | 10 | LDWLD | 34 | 1% | 54% | 1% |
| 4 |  Flamengo | 6 | +2 | 7 | WWWWW | 28 | 0% | 8% | 20% |
| 5 |  Portuguesa RJ | 6 | -1 | 7 | WWDWL | 27 | 0% | 5% | 28% |
| 5 |  Nova Iguaçu | 6 | -1 | 5 | WDDDL | 22 | 0% | 1% | 75% |
| 6 |  Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 6 | -7 | 7 | LLWDW | 25 | 0% | 2% | 49% |
| 6 |  CFRJ / Maricá | 6 | -5 | 3 | LDLLW | 16 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Champions League (1–2) Europa / Conference (3–3) Relegation (12–12)Probabilities re-run after every result.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense | 6 | +4 | 15 | LDWWW | 48 | 87% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | +6 | 11 | DLWWD | 39 | 7% | 87% | 0% |
| 3 | Volta Redonda | 6 | +4 | 11 | DLLDW | 38 | 5% | 86% | 0% |
| 4 | Bangu | 6 | 0 | 10 | LDWLD | 34 | 1% | 54% | 1% |
| 5 | Botafogo | 6 | +1 | 9 | WDWLL | 33 | 1% | 34% | 4% |
| 6 | Madureira | 6 | -1 | 8 | LLWDD | 29 | 0% | 13% | 14% |
| 7 | Boavista SC | 6 | -2 | 8 | DLLDD | 29 | 0% | 10% | 13% |
| 8 | Flamengo | 6 | +2 | 7 | WWWWW | 28 | 0% | 8% | 20% |
| 9 | Portuguesa RJ | 6 | -1 | 7 | WWDWL | 27 | 0% | 5% | 28% |
| 10 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 6 | -7 | 7 | LLWDW | 25 | 0% | 2% | 49% |
| 11 | Nova Iguaçu | 6 | -1 | 5 | WDDDL | 22 | 0% | 1% | 75% |
| 12 | CFRJ / Maricá | 6 | -5 | 3 | LDLLW | 16 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
Champions League (1–2) Europa / Conference (3–3) Relegation (12–12)Probabilities re-run after every result.
About the Carioca table
How is the projected Carioca table calculated?
We simulate the remaining Carioca fixtures 2,000 times using team-strength ratings built from results, goal difference and form, then average where each club finishes.
How often does it update?
The standings update after every match and the projection is re-run within an hour.
Who wins the Carioca 2026?
Fluminense are the model's favourite at 86.9% right now, with Vasco DA Gama second on 6.7%.