Who Will Win Carioca?
2,000 season simulations · 132 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Carioca 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Fluminense wins Carioca in 86% of 2,000 season simulations.
Vasco DA Gama — 7.6% title chance.
CFRJ / Maricá goes down in 97.2% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fluminense | 6 | 15 | 86% | 99.8% | <0.1% | 48 |
| 2 |  Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 11 | 7.6% | 88.1% | <0.1% | 39 |
| 3 |  Volta Redonda | 6 | 11 | 5.1% | 85.2% | 0.1% | 39 |
| 4 |  Bangu | 6 | 10 | 0.9% | 55.5% | 1.3% | 35 |
| 5 |  Botafogo | 6 | 9 | 0.4% | 32.8% | 5.2% | 32 |
| 6 |  Boavista SC | 6 | 8 | 0.2% | 11.7% | 15% | 29 |
| 7 |  Madureira | 6 | 8 | <0.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 29 |
| 8 |  Flamengo | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 8.1% | 20.9% | 28 |
| 9 |  Portuguesa RJ | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 4.6% | 27.4% | 27 |
| 10 |  Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 1.8% | 49.7% | 25 |
| 11 |  Nova Iguaçu | 6 | 5 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 71.2% | 22 |
| 12 |  CFRJ / Maricá | 6 | 3 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 97.2% | 16 |
Methodology
Every remaining Carioca fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Carioca in 2026?
Fluminense wins Carioca in 86% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.