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  1. Home
  2. EFL Cup
  3. Chelsea vs Leeds

Chelsea vs Leeds

Prediction • EFL Cup·Chelsea·Leeds

EFL Cup
EFL Cup
Sep 8, 2026
14:00
PREDICTED WINNER
Chelsea

Chelsea

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Stamford Bridge
Leeds

Leeds

Away
Stadium
Stamford Bridge
Win Probabilities
45%
Chelsea
28%
Draw
27%
Leeds
Home2.2245%
Draw3.5728%
Away3.7027%

Oracle's Vision

Confidence
“

Chelsea are slight favourites due to home advantage and a dominant head-to-head record, but Leeds' formidable defensive form makes this a tight contest. The main risk is Chelsea's injury list disrupting their cohesion, potentially allowing Leeds to snatch a result.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
6.0Chelsea
/10
6.0Leeds
Chelsea
FormLatest first
WWLWL
Win Rate60%
Leeds
FormLatest first
WWLWD
Win Rate60%
Momentum AdvantageEven Match

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Match Weather

18°
Patchy rain nearby
Wind
15 km/h
Humidity
61%
Rain
0.1 mm
Tactical Impact

Ideal playing conditions - no significant weather impact

Chelsea
Home

Chelsea

Form
W
Latest first
4
Pos
69
Pts
+2
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 1 matches)

Clean Sheets1100%
Goal Diff+2
  • Strong head-to-head record against Leeds
  • Home advantage at Stamford Bridge
  • Solid recent form with a 2-0 win
W. Fofana
Red Card
Suspended
M. Caicedo
Injury
Injured
E. Emegha
Hamstring Injury
Injured
M. Sarr
Transfer negotiations
Injured
J. Henderson
Wrist Injury
Injured
M. Palestra
Injury
Injured
E. Fernandez
Coach's decision
Injured
A. Anselmino
Inactive
Injured

Head to Head

Last 10
Chelsea
Chelsea
6Wins
2
Draws
Leeds
2Wins
Leeds
60%20%20%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Apr262026
ChelseaChelsea
1-0
Win
LeedsLeeds
Feb102026
ChelseaChelsea
2-2
Draw
LeedsLeeds
Dec32025
LeedsLeeds
3-1
Loss
ChelseaChelsea
Feb282024
ChelseaChelsea
3-2
Win
LeedsLeeds
Mar42023
ChelseaChelsea
1-0
Win
LeedsLeeds
Aug212022
LeedsLeeds
3-0
Loss
ChelseaChelsea
May112022
LeedsLeeds
0-3
Win
ChelseaChelsea
Dec112021
ChelseaChelsea
3-2
Win
LeedsLeeds
Mar132021
LeedsLeeds
0-0
Draw
ChelseaChelsea
Dec52020
ChelseaChelsea
3-1
Win
LeedsLeeds

Past Predictions

33%1/3 correct

Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds

Apr 26, 2026

47% / 31% / 22%

Chelsea 2 - 2 Leeds

Feb 10, 2026

60% / 22% / 18%

Leeds 3 - 1 Chelsea

Dec 3, 2025

20% / 30% / 50%

Chelsea4-2-3-1vs3-4-2-1LeedsPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Tactical matchup will test both managers' adaptability.

LeedsLeeds3-4-2-1
ChelseaChelsea4-2-3-1
LeedsBenchLeeds7
ChelseaBenchChelsea7

Injury Report

Current team availability status

Data Accuracy: Player availability is highly accurate (~90%), but specific injury diagnoses and recovery timelines may not reflect the latest medical updates (~70% accuracy).

Chelsea

8Out

7 key players

Leeds

5Out

4 key players

Chelsea

Team

Chelsea

Players Out

8(7 key)
W. Fofana

W. Fofana

SUSPENSION
Status:Suspended
M. Caicedo

M. Caicedo

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

E. Emegha

E. Emegha

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

M. Sarr

M. Sarr

MODERATE
Injury:Transfer negotiations

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

J. Henderson

J. Henderson

MODERATE
Injury:Wrist Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

M. Palestra

M. Palestra

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

E. Fernandez

E. Fernandez

MODERATE
Injury:Coach's decision

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

A. Anselmino

A. Anselmino

Status:Inactive

Not in squad

Leeds

Team

Leeds

Players Out

5(4 key)
G. Gudmundsson

G. Gudmundsson

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

M. Joseph

M. Joseph

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

W. Gnonto

W. Gnonto

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

I. Gruev

I. Gruev

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

Lucas Perri

Lucas Perri

MINOR
Injury:Knock

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

1-2 weeks

Oracle's Vision

Predicted Winner

Chelsea

Confidence

Win Probabilities

45%Chelsea
28%Draw
27%Leeds

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffTue, Sep 8 · 14:00
StadiumStamford Bridge
League StatsEFL Cup

Statistical Context

Chelsea

WWLWL
  • WAug 27, 26H · Luton2-0
  • WAug 24, 26A · Fulham2-3
  • LMay 24, 26A · Sunderland2-1
  • WMay 19, 26H · Tottenham2-1
  • LMay 16, 26H · Manchester City0-1

Leeds

WWLWD
  • WAug 25, 26A · Nottingham Forest0-2
  • WAug 22, 26A · Nottingham Forest0-1
  • LMay 24, 26A · West Ham3-0
  • WMay 17, 26H · Brighton1-0
  • DMay 11, 26A · Tottenham1-1

Head to Head

6
Chelsea
2
Draws
2
Leeds
  • Apr 26, 26Chelsea – Leeds1-0
  • Feb 10, 26Chelsea – Leeds2-2
  • Dec 3, 25Leeds – Chelsea3-1
  • Feb 28, 24Chelsea – Leeds3-2
  • Mar 4, 23Chelsea – Leeds1-0

Season Statistics — 2026

ChelseaLeeds
Played11
Goals Scored22
Goals Conceded00
Avg Scored2.02.0
Avg Conceded0.00.0
Clean Sheets11

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

ChelseaLeeds
Over 2.5 Goals6/10—
Both Teams Scored5/10—
Clean Sheets5/10—

Predicted Line-ups & Formations

Predicted XI

Chelsea

Formation 4-2-3-1
  1. 39GM. Penders
  2. 34DJoshua Kofi Acheampong
  3. 29DPep Chavarría
  4. 27DM. Gusto
  5. 21DJ. Hato
  6. 24MR. James
  7. 4MV. Barco
  8. 45MR. Lavia
  9. 10MC. Palmer
  10. 17MM. Rogers
  11. 11AJ. Bynoe-Gittens

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Leeds

Formation 3-4-2-1
  1. 1GJ. Trafford
  2. 15DJ. Bijol
  3. 2DJ. Bogle
  4. 30DN. Elvedi
  5. 4ME. Ampadu
  6. 50MA. Cresswell
  7. 24MJ. Justin
  8. 11MB. Aaronson
  9. 7MD. James
  10. 18MA. Stach
  11. 8AS. Longstaff

Coach: D. Farke

Chelsea vs Leeds — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Chelsea are slight favourites due to home advantage and a dominant head-to-head record, but Leeds' formidable defensive form makes this a tight contest. The main risk is Chelsea's injury list disrupting their cohesion, potentially allowing Leeds to snatch a result.

Chelsea enter this EFL Cup tie as the nominal favourites, backed by a superior head-to-head record and home advantage. However, the absence of market data and the statistical model's near-even split between home win and draw suggest a closely contested match.…

Win Probabilities: Chelsea: 45% · Draw: 28% · Leeds: 27%

H2H: Chelsea wins: 6 · Draws: 2 · Leeds wins: 2

Form (latest first): Chelsea: WWLWL · Leeds: WWLWD

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13.0333%
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13.0333%
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22.9434%
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Sep 814:00
Newcastle
12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
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Sep 814:00
Hull City
12.6338%
X3.4529%
23.0333%
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Fleetwood Town
Sep 814:00
Sheffield Utd
12.5040%
X3.3330%
23.3330%
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Sep 814:00
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12.5040%
X3.5728%
23.1332%
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Sep 814:00
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13.3330%
X3.3330%
22.5040%
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Leyton Orient
Sep 814:00
Bradford
12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
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West Ham
Sep 814:00
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12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
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