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  1. Home
  2. EFL Cup
  3. Derby vs Lincoln

Derby vs Lincoln

Result • EFL Cup·Derby·Lincoln

EFL Cup
EFL Cup
Aug 8, 2026
14:00
medium Confidence
Derby

Derby

Home
Final Score
1-2
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
1-2
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.97
X3.65
23.50
Stadium
Pride Park
medium Confidence
WINNER
Lincoln

Lincoln

Away
Odds
11.97
X3.65
23.50
Stadium
Pride Park
Win Probabilities
46%
Derby
30%
Draw
24%
Lincoln
Home1.9746%
Draw3.6530%
Away3.5024%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

Derby are the clear favourites, backed by superior form and a strong head-to-head record, while Lincoln are struggling with two consecutive losses. The main risk is Derby's inconsistency, which could allow Lincoln to snatch a result if they defend resolutely.

Our AI model analyzes this EFL Cup fixture between Derby and Lincoln using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Derby a 46% win probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and Lincoln a 24% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 55%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 55%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1R. O'Donnell vs G. Wickens: The goalkeepers will be crucial in keeping their teams in the match. O'Donnell's experience could be vital in organising the defence, while Wickens will need to make key saves to keep Lincoln in the game.
2M. Clarke vs D. Elerewe: The defensive duel between Clarke and Elerewe could decide the outcome. Clarke's aerial ability and positioning will be tested by Lincoln's counter-attacks, while Elerewe must stay disciplined to contain Derby's forwards.
3C. Forsyth vs R. Towler: The battle on the left side could be decisive. Forsyth's attacking runs from full-back will need to be tracked by Towler, who must balance defensive duties with supporting his own team's attacks.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Derby

  • Higher average goals scored (1.6 per game)
  • Better head-to-head record against Lincoln
  • Inconsistent form (LWLWL in last five)
  • Concedes an average of 1.6 goals per game

Lincoln

  • Two clean sheets in last five matches
  • Resilient defensive record in some games
  • Current two-match losing streak
  • Low average goals scored (1.0 per game)

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
46%
API-Football
50%
48%
Derby484012

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (48%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisMedium Confidence

Derby enter this EFL Cup tie as the clear favourites, backed by a superior overall statistical profile and a favourable head-to-head record. The home side have won two of the last five meetings, with two draws, while Lincoln have managed just one victory. Derby's recent form, though inconsistent, shows a higher average of goals scored (1.6 per game) compared to Lincoln's 1.0, and they arrive on the back of a win, whereas Lincoln have lost their last two matches.

Form Analysis: Derby's last five matches (LWLWL) show a mixed run, but they have scored and conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating an open, attacking style. Lincoln's form is more concerning: they have lost two in a row and have averaged only 1.0 goal scored per game while conceding 1.8. Despite having two clean sheets in their last five, their overall momentum is negative.

Key Factors: The most decisive factors are Derby's superior attacking output and Lincoln's current losing streak. Additionally, Derby's historical edge in head-to-head encounters (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) provides a psychological advantage. The home advantage at Pride Park further tilts the balance in Derby's favour.

Conclusion: All data points to a Derby victory. Their stronger form, better head-to-head record, and home advantage make them the likely winners. Lincoln will need to overcome their recent slump and defensive frailties to cause an upset, but the evidence strongly favours the home side.

Statistical ContextDerby

Double chance : Derby or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
DerbyLincoln
61%Strength39%
50%Attacking Potential50%
50%Defensive Potential50%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
62%H2H Strength38%
60%Goals H2H40%
61%Wins the Game39%
Head-to-head →Injuries · DerbyInjuries · Lincoln

Statistical Context

Derby

LLLWL
  • LSep 12, 26H · Birmingham1-2
  • LSep 9, 26H · West Brom0-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · West Ham3-0
  • WSep 1, 26A · Portsmouth0-2
  • LAug 29, 26H · Swansea0-3

Lincoln

WWLDD
  • WSep 15, 26A · Bristol City0-1
  • WSep 12, 26A · Preston0-1
  • LSep 8, 26A · Bournemouth4-0
  • DSep 5, 26H · Southampton1-1
  • DSep 1, 26H · Blackburn0-0

Head to Head

2
Derby
2
Draws
1
Lincoln
  • Jan 20, 24Lincoln – Derby0-0
  • Dec 21, 23Derby – Lincoln3-1
  • Sep 19, 23Derby – Lincoln2-0
  • Feb 14, 23Derby – Lincoln1-1
  • Sep 13, 22Lincoln – Derby2-0

Season Statistics — 2026

DerbyLincoln
Played56
Goals Scored55
Goals Conceded106
Avg Scored1.00.8
Avg Conceded2.01.0
Clean Sheets13

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

DerbyLincoln
Over 2.5 Goals7/10—
Both Teams Scored7/10—
Clean Sheets2/10—

Predicted line-ups: Derby vs Lincoln

Predicted XI

Derby

4-3-3Formation· Coach: J. Eustace

Lincoln

4-2-3-1Formation· Coach: M. Skubala

  1. 1G. Wickens
  1. 25D. Elerewe
  2. 6R. Towler
  3. 4A. Coubiș
  4. 20C. Elder
  1. 8T. Bayliss
  2. 15S. Bradley
  1. 2T. Darikwa
  2. 16D. Jefferies
  3. 14C. McGrandles
  1. 7R. Hackett
  1. 7P. Agyemang
  2. 7F. Bilbija
  3. 10R. Brewster
  1. 42C. Allen
  2. 45R. Canoville
  3. 8B. Clark
  1. 5M. Clarke
  2. 3C. Forsyth
  3. 44I. Gordon
  4. 22M. Johnston
  1. 12R. O'Donnell

Bench

  • 1H. Price
  • 1J. Thompson
  • 31J. Vickers
  • 1J. Widell Zetterström
  • 6S. Langås
  • 2D. Murkin
  • 24R. Nyambe

Out

  • C. Forsyth · Knee Injury
  • C. Morris · Calf Injury
  • L. Travis · Leg Injury
  • P. Agyemang · Achilles Tendon Injury
  • R. Brewster · Injury
  • D. Murkin · Hamstring Injury
  • M. Clarke · Calf Injury
  • S. Szmodics · Thigh Injury

Bench

  • 10J. Moylan
  • 18B. House
  • 20R. Oné
  • 17R. Street
  • 11O. Thorn
  • 22T. Hamer
  • 3A. Reach

Out

  • A. Jackson · Surgery
  • T. Darikwa · Knee Injury
  • J. Collins · Knee Injury
  • T. Hamer · Health problems
  • M. Melia · Thigh Injury
  • S. Bradley · Knock

Predicted line-ups based on recent matches and absences; official line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Derby vs Lincoln — Match Analysis

Derby are the clear favourites, backed by superior form and a strong head-to-head record, while Lincoln are struggling with two consecutive losses. The main risk is Derby's inconsistency, which could allow Lincoln to snatch a result if they defend resolutely.

Derby enter this EFL Cup tie as the clear favourites, backed by a superior overall statistical profile and a favourable head-to-head record. The home side have won two of the last five meetings, with two draws, while Lincoln have managed just one victory. Derby's recent form, though inconsistent, shows a higher average of goals scored (1.6 per game) compared to Lincoln's 1.0, and they arrive on the back of a win, whereas Lincoln have lost their last two matches.

Form Analysis: Derby's last five matches (LWLWL) show a mixed run, but they have scored and conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating an open, attacking style. Lincoln's form is more concerning: they have lost two in a row and have averaged only 1.0 goal scored per game while conceding 1.8. Despite having two clean sheets in their last five, their overall momentum is negative.

Key Factors: The most decisive factors are Derby's superior attacking output and Lincoln's current losing streak. Additionally, Derby's historical edge in head-to-head encounters (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) provides a psychological advantage. The home advantage at Pride Park further tilts the balance in Derby's favour.

Conclusion: All data points to a Derby victory. Their stronger form, better head-to-head record, and home advantage make them the likely winners. Lincoln will need to overcome their recent slump and defensive frailties to cause an upset, but the evidence strongly favours the home side.

Win Probabilities: Derby: 46% · Draw: 30% · Lincoln: 24%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 55%

H2H: Derby wins: 2 · Draws: 2 · Lincoln wins: 1

Form (latest first): Derby: LLLWL · Lincoln: WWLDD

  • R. O'Donnell vs G. Wickens: The goalkeepers will be crucial in keeping their teams in the match. O'Donnell's experience could be vital in organising the defence, while Wickens will need to make key saves to keep Lincoln in the game.
  • M. Clarke vs D. Elerewe: The defensive duel between Clarke and Elerewe could decide the outcome. Clarke's aerial ability and positioning will be tested by Lincoln's counter-attacks, while Elerewe must stay disciplined to contain Derby's forwards.
  • C. Forsyth vs R. Towler: The battle on the left side could be decisive. Forsyth's attacking runs from full-back will need to be tracked by Towler, who must balance defensive duties with supporting his own team's attacks.

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