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  1. Home
  2. FA Cup
  3. Chelsea vs Leeds

Chelsea vs Leeds

Result • FA Cup·Chelsea·Leeds

FA Cup
FA Cup
Apr 26, 2026
14:00
high Confidence
WINNER
Chelsea

Chelsea

Home
Final Score
1-0
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
1-0
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
12.05
X3.60
23.40
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
high Confidence
Leeds

Leeds

Away
Odds
12.05
X3.60
23.40
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Win Probabilities
47%
Chelsea
31%
Draw
22%
Leeds
Home2.0547%
Draw3.6031%
Away3.4022%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Chelsea rising from recent struggles, their historical dominance guiding them past a resilient Leeds. Yet the visitors' defensive shield may delay the inevitable.

Our AI model analyzes this FA Cup fixture between Chelsea and Leeds using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Chelsea a 47% win probability, a 31% chance of a draw, and Leeds a 22% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 52%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 52%

Match Events

  1. Goal: E. FernandezAssist: P. Neto
    23'
    Goal: E. FernandezChelsea · Assist: P. Neto
  2. 46'
    Substitution: J. RodonLeeds · Out: J. Justin
    Substitution: J. RodonOut: J. Justin
  3. 46'
    Substitution: A. StachLeeds · Out: J. Bijol
    Substitution: A. StachOut: J. Bijol
  4. Yellow Card: M. Caicedo
    60'
    Yellow Card: M. CaicedoChelsea
  5. Substitution: Andrey SantosOut: R. Lavia
    66'
    Substitution: Andrey SantosChelsea · Out: R. Lavia
  6. Substitution: C. PalmerOut: A. Garnacho
    71'
    Substitution: C. PalmerChelsea · Out: A. Garnacho
  7. 74'
    Substitution: L. NmechaLeeds · Out: A. Tanaka
    Substitution: L. NmechaOut: A. Tanaka
  8. 74'
    Substitution: W. GnontoLeeds · Out: N. Okafor
    Substitution: W. GnontoOut: N. Okafor
  9. 76'
    Yellow Card: P. StruijkLeeds
    Yellow Card: P. Struijk
  10. Yellow Card: C. Palmer
    77'
    Yellow Card: C. PalmerChelsea
  11. 78'
    Yellow Card: E. AmpaduLeeds
    Yellow Card: E. Ampadu
  12. 84'
    Yellow Card: L. NmechaLeeds
    Yellow Card: L. Nmecha
  13. 86'
    Substitution: S. LongstaffLeeds · Out: B. Aaronson
    Substitution: S. LongstaffOut: B. Aaronson
  14. 90+4'
    Yellow Card: J. BogleLeeds
    Yellow Card: J. Bogle
  15. Yellow Card: P. Neto
    90+4'
    Yellow Card: P. NetoChelsea
  16. Substitution: L. DelapOut: Joao Pedro
    90+8'
    Substitution: L. DelapChelsea · Out: Joao Pedro
Share Prediction

Match stats · predicted vs real

2 / 2stats picks landed in this match
Chelsea 1-0 Leeds
FT
MarketPredictedRealOur pickResult
Corners per team✓ hitPredicted 8.0 – 2.9Real 6 – 4Chelsea more corners✓ hit
Total corners—Predicted 10.9Real 10chances only—
Yellow cards✓ hitPredicted 3.9Real 7Over 2.5✓ hit
Half-time score—Predicted 0-0Real 1-0chances only—
Shots on target—Predicted 4.8 – 4.6Real 2 – 3——
Total shots—Predicted 15.1 – 10.8Real 7 – 10chances only—

Our pre-match numbers for this match, next to the final statistics.

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1K. Páez vs Leeds defense: Chelsea's top scorer will test Leeds' backline, which has been excellent recently.
2Pedro Neto vs Leeds midfield: Neto's creativity and dribbling could unlock Leeds' compact shape.
3L. Nmecha vs Chelsea defense: Leeds' main goal threat will look to capitalize on Chelsea's defensive weaknesses.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Chelsea

  • Strong attack (65% rating)
  • Dominant H2H record
  • 3-match losing streak
  • Failed to score in 4 of last 5

Leeds

  • 5-match unbeaten streak
  • 3 clean sheets in last 5
  • Lower attack rating (35%)
  • Inconsistent scoring (failed to score in 2 of last 5)

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
47%
API-Football
45%
46%
Chelsea463816

Moderate agreement on home win (46%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Chelsea are favored to win this FA Cup tie against Leeds, based on bookmaker odds and historical head-to-head dominance.

Form Analysis: Chelsea have lost three consecutive matches, while Leeds are unbeaten in five. However, Chelsea's attack (65% vs 35%) and defense (57% vs 43%) ratings are superior according to the API comparison.

Key Factors: Chelsea's strong H2H record (6 wins in last 10 meetings) and higher overall team strength (52.6% vs 47.4%) support a home win. Leeds' recent defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5) is a concern but not enough to overturn odds.

Conclusion: Despite recent form struggles, Chelsea's quality and historical edge should see them through, though Leeds will make it competitive.

Statistical ContextChelsea

Combo Winner : Chelsea and +1.5 goals

Team Comparison

AI Powered
ChelseaLeeds
52%Strength47%
65%Attacking Potential35%
57%Defensive Potential43%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
50%H2H Strength50%
41%Goals H2H59%
52%Wins the Game47%

More information

Head-to-headChelsea – LeedsInjuriesChelseaInjuriesLeedsLive scores

Statistical Context

Chelsea

WDLWW
  • WOct 31, 26H · Manchester United2-0
  • DOct 28, 26A · Liverpool1-1
  • LOct 24, 26H · Tottenham0-2
  • WOct 17, 26A · Everton0-2
  • WOct 10, 26H · Bournemouth5-1

Leeds

LDDLD
  • LOct 31, 26A · Bournemouth2-0
  • DOct 25, 26A · Sunderland0-0
  • DOct 18, 26H · Manchester United1-1
  • LOct 10, 26A · Arsenal2-1
  • DSep 20, 26H · Crystal Palace0-0

Head to Head

6
Chelsea
2
Draws
2
Leeds
  • Sep 9, 26Chelsea – Leeds6-3
  • Apr 26, 26Chelsea – Leeds1-0
  • Feb 10, 26Chelsea – Leeds2-2
  • Dec 3, 25Leeds – Chelsea3-1
  • Feb 28, 24Chelsea – Leeds3-2

Season Statistics — 2026

ChelseaLeeds
Played88
Goals Scored179
Goals Conceded156
Avg Scored2.11.1
Avg Conceded1.90.8
Clean Sheets13

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

ChelseaLeeds
Over 2.5 Goals6/10—
Both Teams Scored5/10—
Clean Sheets5/10—

Chelsea vs Leeds — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Chelsea rising from recent struggles, their historical dominance guiding them past a resilient Leeds. Yet the visitors' defensive shield may delay the inevitable.

Chelsea are favored to win this FA Cup tie against Leeds, based on bookmaker odds and historical head-to-head dominance.

Form Analysis: Chelsea have lost three consecutive matches, while Leeds are unbeaten in five. However, Chelsea's attack (65% vs 35%) and defense (57% vs 43%) ratings are superior according to the API comparison.

Key Factors: Chelsea's strong H2H record (6 wins in last 10 meetings) and higher overall team strength (52.6% vs 47.4%) support a home win. Leeds' recent defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5) is a concern but not enough to overturn odds.

Conclusion: Despite recent form struggles, Chelsea's quality and historical edge should see them through, though Leeds will make it competitive.

Win Probabilities: Chelsea: 47% · Draw: 31% · Leeds: 22%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 52%

H2H: Chelsea wins: 6 · Draws: 2 · Leeds wins: 2

Form (latest first): Chelsea: WDLWW · Leeds: LDDLD

  • K. Páez vs Leeds defense: Chelsea's top scorer will test Leeds' backline, which has been excellent recently.
  • Pedro Neto vs Leeds midfield: Neto's creativity and dribbling could unlock Leeds' compact shape.
  • L. Nmecha vs Chelsea defense: Leeds' main goal threat will look to capitalize on Chelsea's defensive weaknesses.

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Emiliano Martínez says he will be back in a few weeks after jaw surgery following Chelsea's 2-0 win at Everton, with Mike Penders set to deputise.

Oct 19, 2026
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Oct 18, 2026
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FA Cup

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