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  1. Home
  2. Coupe de France
  3. Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille vs Toulouse

Result • Coupe de France·Marseille·Toulouse

Coupe de France
Coupe de France
Mar 4, 2026
20:00
low Confidence
DRAW
Marseille

Marseille

Home
Final Score
2-2
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
2-2
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.85
X3.60
24.00
Stadium
Orange Velodrome
low Confidence
DRAW
Toulouse

Toulouse

Away
Odds
11.85
X3.60
24.00
Stadium
Orange Velodrome
Win Probabilities
52%
Marseille
26%
Draw
22%
Toulouse
Home1.8552%
Draw3.6026%
Away4.0022%

Oracle's Vision

low Confidence
“

The Oracle sees Marseille's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Toulouse, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Our AI model analyzes this Coupe de France fixture between Marseille and Toulouse using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Marseille a 52% win probability, a 26% chance of a draw, and Toulouse a 22% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 40%. This prediction is rated as low confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 40%

Match Events

  1. Penalty: M. Greenwood (Penalty)
    2'
    Penalty: M. Greenwood (Penalty)Marseille
  2. Yellow Card: H. Abdelli
    11'
    Yellow Card: H. AbdelliMarseille
  3. 13'
    Goal: Y. GbohoToulouse
    Goal: Y. Gboho
  4. Yellow Card: M. Greenwood
    35'
    Yellow Card: M. GreenwoodMarseille
  5. 37'
    Yellow Card: EmersonnToulouse
    Yellow Card: Emersonn
  6. Substitution: E. NwaneriOut: H. Abdelli
    46'
    Substitution: E. NwaneriMarseille · Out: H. Abdelli
  7. Goal: I. PaixaoAssist: G. Kondogbia
    56'
    Goal: I. PaixaoMarseille · Assist: G. Kondogbia
  8. Substitution: B. NadirOut: A. Vermeeren
    58'
    Substitution: B. NadirMarseille · Out: A. Vermeeren
  9. 60'
    Goal: C. CresswellToulouse · Assist: A. Donnum
    Goal: C. CresswellAssist: A. Donnum
  10. 65'
    Substitution: W. KamanziToulouse · Out: C. Cresswell
    Substitution: W. KamanziOut: C. Cresswell
  11. 83'
    Substitution: J. Russell-RoweToulouse · Out: Emersonn
    Substitution: J. Russell-RoweOut: Emersonn
  12. Substitution: H. J. TraoreOut: I. Paixao
    90'
    Substitution: H. J. TraoreMarseille · Out: I. Paixao
  13. Penalty: A. Donnum (Penalty)Toulouse · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: A. Donnum (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  14. Penalty: M. Greenwood (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: M. Greenwood (Penalty)Marseille · Penalty shootout
  15. Penalty: Y. Gboho (Penalty)Toulouse · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: Y. Gboho (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  16. Penalty: P. Aubameyang (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: P. Aubameyang (Penalty)Marseille · Penalty shootout
  17. Penalty: D. Sidibe (Penalty)Toulouse · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: D. Sidibe (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  18. Missed penalty: L. BalerdiPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: L. BalerdiMarseille · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
  19. Missed penalty: C. CasseresToulouse · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: C. CasseresPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
  20. Penalty: N. Aguerd (Penalty)Penalty shootout
    Penalty: N. Aguerd (Penalty)Marseille · Penalty shootout
  21. Penalty: P. Demba (Penalty)Toulouse · Penalty shootout
    Penalty: P. Demba (Penalty)Penalty shootout
  22. Missed penalty: E. NwaneriPenalty shootout · Missed penalty
    Missed penalty: E. NwaneriMarseille · Penalty shootout · Missed penalty
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1M. Greenwood vs Toulouse defense: Greenwood's scoring ability will test Toulouse's defensive organization.
2P. Aubameyang vs Toulouse midfield: Aubameyang's playmaking skills could exploit gaps in Toulouse's midfield setup.
3F. Magri vs Marseille defense: Magri's goal-scoring threat will challenge Marseille's high-conceding defense.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Marseille

  • Strong head-to-head record against Toulouse
  • Home advantage with a rating of 0.55
  • Inconsistent form with recent draws and losses
  • High average goals conceded at 2.2 per game

Toulouse

  • Solid defensive record with low average goals conceded at 1.0 per game
  • No injuries or suspensions
  • Poor recent form with multiple losses
  • Low average goals scored at 0.6 per game
Head-to-head →Injuries · MarseilleInjuries · ToulouseLive scores →

Statistical Context

Marseille

LLLLL
  • LSep 20, 26H · Paris Saint Germain1-2
  • LSep 17, 26A · Beşiktaş4-1
  • LSep 11, 26A · Rennes1-0
  • LSep 6, 26H · Paris FC2-3
  • LAug 30, 26A · Monaco2-0

Toulouse

WDLDL
  • WSep 19, 26H · Le Havre3-2
  • DSep 12, 26A · Lorient2-2
  • LSep 3, 26H · Lille0-1
  • DAug 29, 26A · Stade Brestois 292-2
  • LAug 22, 26H · Lyon0-2

Head to Head

6
Marseille
4
Draws
0
Toulouse
  • Mar 7, 26Toulouse – Marseille0-1
  • Mar 4, 26Marseille – Toulouse2-2
  • Nov 29, 25Marseille – Toulouse2-2
  • Apr 6, 25Marseille – Toulouse3-2
  • Aug 31, 24Toulouse – Marseille1-3

Season Statistics — 2026

MarseilleToulouse
Played55
Goals Scored77
Goals Conceded89
Avg Scored1.41.4
Avg Conceded1.61.8
Clean Sheets10

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

MarseilleToulouse
Over 2.5 Goals7/10—
Both Teams Scored6/10—
Clean Sheets2/10—

Marseille vs Toulouse — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees Marseille's strength prevailing on home ground. Ancient wisdom reveals a spirited effort from Toulouse, but the hosts' quality should shine through.

Based on the structured data, Marseille is predicted to win this Coupe de France match against Toulouse, with a slight edge supported by market and model probabilities.

Form Analysis: Marseille's recent form shows a win-loss-draw-loss-draw pattern with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, including a current win streak. Toulouse's form is loss-draw-loss-loss-draw with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, and a current loss streak. Both teams failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games.

Key Factors: 1. Marseille has a strong head-to-head record with 7 wins in the last 5 meetings, while Toulouse has 0 wins. 2. Marseille benefits from home advantage with a rating of 0.55. 3. Toulouse has no injuries, while Marseille has one doubtful player, but this is not a major disruption.

Conclusion: The data indicates Marseille as the favorite due to historical dominance, home advantage, and slightly better form, aligning with market and model predictions for a home win.

Win Probabilities: Marseille: 52% · Draw: 26% · Toulouse: 22%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 45% · Under 2.5: 55% · BTTS: 40%

H2H: Marseille wins: 6 · Draws: 4 · Toulouse wins: 0

Form (latest first): Marseille: LLLLL · Toulouse: WDLDL

  • M. Greenwood vs Toulouse defense: Greenwood's scoring ability will test Toulouse's defensive organization.
  • P. Aubameyang vs Toulouse midfield: Aubameyang's playmaking skills could exploit gaps in Toulouse's midfield setup.
  • F. Magri vs Marseille defense: Magri's goal-scoring threat will challenge Marseille's high-conceding defense.

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