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  1. Home
  2. Virsliga
  3. Tukums vs FS Jelgava

Tukums vs FS Jelgava

Result • Virsliga·Tukums·FS Jelgava

Virsliga
Virsliga
Aug 29, 2026
14:00
medium Confidence
Tukums

Tukums

Home
Final Score
1-4
Predicted: 1-2
Final Score
1-4
Predicted: 1-2
Odds
12.63
X3.20
22.35
medium Confidence
WINNER
FS Jelgava

FS Jelgava

Away
Odds
12.63
X3.20
22.35
Win Probabilities
33%
Tukums
29%
Draw
38%
FS Jelgava
Home2.6333%
Draw3.2029%
Away2.3538%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

FS Jelgava are narrow favourites, backed by a superior league position and a better head-to-head record, but Tukums' home advantage keeps this close. The main risk is Tukums' poor form, which could see them struggle to break down a resolute Jelgava defence.

Our AI model analyzes this Virsliga fixture between Tukums and FS Jelgava using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Tukums a 33% win probability, a 29% chance of a draw, and FS Jelgava a 38% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-2. Both teams to score probability: 53%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 53%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1S. Vilkovs vs K. Aļekseičiks: The duel between the two goalkeepers could be decisive, as both teams have struggled to score recently. A key save could swing the match.
2Kristaps Klavins vs Filip Hašek: The battle in midfield will be crucial. Klavins will look to break up play, while Hašek aims to create chances for the forwards.
3Leoni Gastaldelo vs T. Rataj: The matchup between Tukums' forward and Jelgava's striker could determine which team finds the back of the net first.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Tukums

  • Home advantage with a rating of 0.55
  • Solid defensive organization in a 5-3-2 formation
  • Poor recent form with 4 losses in last 5
  • Low scoring output, averaging 0.6 goals per game

FS Jelgava

  • Better league position and points tally
  • Superior head-to-head record against Tukums
  • Inconsistent form with 4 losses in last 5
  • Conceded 46 goals this season, indicating defensive frailty

Combined Analysis

High Agreement
Betora AI
38%
API-Football
35%
34%
FS Jelgava343234

Moderate agreement on home win (34%).

AI AnalysisMedium Confidence

The match between Tukums and FS Jelgava is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the away side holding a slight edge according to the market. Both teams have struggled for consistency, but FS Jelgava's superior league position and attacking output give them a narrow advantage.

Form Analysis: Tukums come into this match on the back of two consecutive defeats, having lost four of their last five games. They have scored just 0.6 goals per game on average while conceding 2.0, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in that period. FS Jelgava, despite a poor run of four losses in five, managed a win in their most recent outing, which could provide a psychological boost. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, with a slightly better overall record this season.

Key Factors: FS Jelgava hold a higher league position (7th vs 9th) and have accumulated eight more points. Their head-to-head record is also favorable, having won three of the last five meetings. However, Tukums have home advantage, which could narrow the gap. Both teams have struggled to score, with Tukums failing to find the net in three of their last five matches, and FS Jelgava doing the same in three of their last five.

Conclusion: The data suggests a tight match with FS Jelgava holding a slight edge. The away side's better form and head-to-head record make them the narrow favourites, but Tukums' home advantage and the overall low-scoring nature of both teams could lead to a closely fought contest.

Statistical ContextTukums

Double chance : Tukums or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
TukumsFS Jelgava
48%Strength52%
43%Attacking Potential57%
44%Defensive Potential56%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
38%H2H Strength62%
53%Goals H2H47%
48%Wins the Game52%

Statistical Context

Tukums

LLLLL
  • LAug 21, 26A · Auda3-0
  • LAug 8, 26A · BFC Daugavpils2-0
  • LAug 2, 26A · FK Liepaja2-1
  • LJul 27, 26H · Rīgas FS0-1
  • LJul 18, 26A · Riga3-1

FS Jelgava

WLLLL
  • WAug 22, 26A · Ogre United2-3
  • LAug 9, 26H · Auda0-1
  • LAug 1, 26A · BFC Daugavpils2-1
  • LJul 26, 26H · FK Liepaja0-2
  • LJul 20, 26H · Rīgas FS0-1

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
6Super Nova25-1128DLWLW
7FS Jelgava27-1828WLLLL
8Grobiņa27-3121LLLDL
9Tukums27-1420LLWLL
10Ogre United26-4214LLDLW

Head to Head

2
Tukums
5
Draws
3
FS Jelgava
  • Jun 21, 26FS Jelgava – Tukums4-1
  • May 1, 26Tukums – FS Jelgava5-0
  • Mar 8, 26FS Jelgava – Tukums2-1
  • Nov 9, 25Tukums – FS Jelgava1-1
  • Aug 23, 25FS Jelgava – Tukums1-1

Season Statistics — 2026

TukumsFS Jelgava
Played2727
Goals Scored4028
Goals Conceded5446
Avg Scored1.51.0
Avg Conceded2.01.7
Clean Sheets14

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

TukumsFS Jelgava
Over 2.5 Goals8/104/10
Both Teams Scored8/104/10
Clean Sheets1/103/10

Tukums vs FS Jelgava — Match Analysis

FS Jelgava are narrow favourites, backed by a superior league position and a better head-to-head record, but Tukums' home advantage keeps this close. The main risk is Tukums' poor form, which could see them struggle to break down a resolute Jelgava defence.

The match between Tukums and FS Jelgava is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the away side holding a slight edge according to the market. Both teams have struggled for consistency, but FS Jelgava's superior league position and attacking output give them a narrow advantage.

Form Analysis: Tukums come into this match on the back of two consecutive defeats, having lost four of their last five games. They have scored just 0.6 goals per game on average while conceding 2.0, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in that period. FS Jelgava, despite a poor run of four losses in five, managed a win in their most recent outing, which could provide a psychological boost. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, with a slightly better overall record this season.

Key Factors: FS Jelgava hold a higher league position (7th vs 9th) and have accumulated eight more points. Their head-to-head record is also favorable, having won three of the last five meetings. However, Tukums have home advantage, which could narrow the gap. Both teams have struggled to score, with Tukums failing to find the net in three of their last five matches, and FS Jelgava doing the same in three of their last five.

Conclusion: The data suggests a tight match with FS Jelgava holding a slight edge. The away side's better form and head-to-head record make them the narrow favourites, but Tukums' home advantage and the overall low-scoring nature of both teams could lead to a closely fought contest.

Win Probabilities: Tukums: 33% · Draw: 29% · FS Jelgava: 38%

Predicted Score: 1-2 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 47% · Under 2.5: 53% · BTTS: 53%

H2H: Tukums wins: 2 · Draws: 5 · FS Jelgava wins: 3

Form (latest first): Tukums: LLLLL · FS Jelgava: WLLLL

  • S. Vilkovs vs K. Aļekseičiks: The duel between the two goalkeepers could be decisive, as both teams have struggled to score recently. A key save could swing the match.
  • Kristaps Klavins vs Filip Hašek: The battle in midfield will be crucial. Klavins will look to break up play, while Hašek aims to create chances for the forwards.
  • Leoni Gastaldelo vs T. Rataj: The matchup between Tukums' forward and Jelgava's striker could determine which team finds the back of the net first.

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Virsliga

Virsliga

Latvia15 · Upcoming Fixtures
VirsligaLatvia
Ogre United
Aug 3014:00
Rīgas FS
120.005%
X7.6913%
21.2282%
VirsligaLatvia
FK Liepaja
Aug 3114:30
Riga
16.6715%
X4.0025%
21.6760%
VirsligaLatvia
Tukums
Sep 512:00
Ogre United
Early projection
11.7956%
X4.7621%
24.3523%
VirsligaLatvia
FS Jelgava
Sep 514:00
Super Nova
Early projection
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
VirsligaLatvia
Auda
Sep 615:00
Grobiņa
Early projection
11.2878%
X7.6913%
211.119%
VirsligaLatvia
Riga
Sep 716:00
BFC Daugavpils
Early projection
11.3375%
X7.1414%
29.0911%
VirsligaLatvia
Rīgas FS
Sep 716:00
FK Liepaja
Early projection
11.3773%
X6.6715%
28.3312%
VirsligaLatvia
Super Nova
Sep 1016:00
Tukums
Early projection
11.8255%
X4.7621%
24.1724%
VirsligaLatvia
Ogre United
Sep 1114:00
FK Liepaja
Early projection
14.5522%
X5.2619%
21.6959%
VirsligaLatvia
Riga
Sep 1115:00
Auda
Early projection
11.5963%
X5.5618%
25.2619%
VirsligaLatvia
Grobiņa
Sep 1211:00
FS Jelgava
Early projection
12.8635%
X3.5728%
22.7037%
VirsligaLatvia
BFC Daugavpils
Sep 1311:00
Rīgas FS
Early projection
15.0020%
X5.0020%
21.6760%
VirsligaLatvia
Super Nova
Sep 1516:00
Riga
Early projection
17.1414%
X6.2516%
21.4370%
VirsligaLatvia
Auda
Sep 1616:00
Ogre United
11.2878%
X6.6715%
214.297%
VirsligaLatvia
FK Liepaja
Sep 1911:00
BFC Daugavpils
Early projection
12.3842%
X3.8526%
23.1332%