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  1. Home
  2. Liga MX
  3. Leon vs Toluca

Leon vs Toluca

Prediction • Liga MX·Leon·Toluca

Liga MX
Liga MX
Oct 24, 2026
23:00
Early projection · Odds pending
Leon

Leon

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Estadio León
Early projection · Odds pending
PREDICTED WINNER
Toluca

Toluca

Away
Stadium
Estadio León
Win Probabilities
29%
Leon
23%
Draw
48%
Toluca
Home3.4529%
Draw4.3523%
Away2.0848%

Oracle's Vision

Early projection
“

Toluca are favored at 48% to win away at Leon. The draw is rated 23% and the home win 29%, so the numbers side with the visitors.

See our exact score, over/under 2.5 and BTTS call for Leon vs Toluca.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
4.0Leon
/10
4.0Toluca
Leon
FormLatest first
DWDWL
Win Rate40%
Toluca
FormLatest first
LDLWW
Win Rate40%
Momentum AdvantageEven Match

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Leon
Home

Leon

Form
LWDWD
Latest first
11
Pos
18
Pts
+3
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 10 matches)

Clean Sheets330%
Goal Diff+3
  • Solid home record with three wins from four at Estadio León
  • Defensive resilience with two clean sheets in the last five
  • Capable of grinding out draws, as shown by the current streak

Key Players

J. Cortizo
J. Cortizo
7.9
Goals
1
Assists
0
D. Cambindo
D. Cambindo
6.2
Goals
1
Assists
0
J. Alvarado
J. Alvarado
6.6
Goals
0
Assists
1
Toluca
Away

Toluca

Form
WWLDL
Latest first
2
Pos
35
Pts
+11
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 10 matches)

Clean Sheets440%
Goal Diff+11
  • Prolific attack averaging 2.4 goals per game
  • Excellent defensive record with three clean sheets in five
  • Dominant head-to-head record with five wins in the last five meetings

Key Players

J. Gallardo
J. Gallardo
7.2
Goals
1
Assists
0
Helinho
Helinho
7.9
Goals
0
Assists
1

Head to Head

Last 10
Leon
Leon
1Wins
4
Draws
Toluca
5Wins
Toluca
10%40%50%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Sep32026
TolucaToluca
2-0
Loss
LeonLeon
Apr262026
TolucaToluca
4-1
Loss
LeonLeon
Oct52025
LeonLeon
2-4
Loss
TolucaToluca
Feb92025
LeonLeon
3-3
Draw
TolucaToluca
Nov22024
TolucaToluca
2-2
Draw
LeonLeon
Feb32024
TolucaToluca
4-1
Loss
LeonLeon
Oct212023
LeonLeon
1-0
Win
TolucaToluca
Jan292023
TolucaToluca
0-0
Draw
LeonLeon
Jul272022
LeonLeon
0-1
Loss
TolucaToluca
May22022
LeonLeon
4-4
Draw
TolucaToluca
Leon4-1-4-1vs4-2-3-1TolucaPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Tactical matchup will test both managers' adaptability.

See the full predicted line-ups ↓

No Reported Injuries

Both teams have a clean bill of health

Liga MX

League Statistics

Liga MX • Standings & Top Performers

Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Club America
106312211+1121
2
TolucaAway
116232515+1020
3
Club Queretaro
10622158+720
4
Guadalajara Chivas
115421811+719
5
LeonHome
115331512+318
6
Atlas
115331718-118
7
Cruz Azul
115242221+117
8
Club Tijuana
104331514+115
9
Puebla
114341213-115
10
Monterrey
104241715+214
11
CF Pachuca
113441814+413
12
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
113441719-213
13
Tigres UANL
113441315-213
14
Santos Laguna
114161216-413
15
Atletico San Luis
113351520-512
16
Atlante FC
112541217-511
17
Necaxa
112361523-89
18
FC Juarez
11119826-184
Champions League
Relegation
HomeAway

Oracle's Vision

Early projection

Toluca

Odds pending

Win Probabilities

29%Leon
23%Draw
48%Toluca

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffSat, Oct 24 · 23:00
StadiumEstadio León
League StatsLiga MX
Line-ups →Head-to-head →Injuries · LeonInjuries · TolucaLive scores →

Statistical Context

Leon

DWDWL
  • DOct 10, 26A · Puebla1-1
  • WSep 28, 26H · FC Juarez2-1
  • DSep 21, 26A · Club Queretaro1-1
  • WSep 15, 26H · Atletico San Luis2-0
  • LSep 11, 26A · U.N.A.M. - Pumas3-1

Toluca

LDLWW
  • LOct 10, 26A · Tigres UANL3-2
  • DSep 26, 26A · Cruz Azul3-3
  • LSep 21, 26H · Santos Laguna2-3
  • WSep 16, 26A · Puebla0-1
  • WSep 12, 26H · Atlas5-2

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
1Club America10+1121DWDLW
2Toluca11+1020LDLWW
3Club Queretaro10+720WWDWW
4Guadalajara Chivas11+719DLDWW
5Leon11+318DWDWL
6Atlas11-118DWDLD

Head to Head

1
Leon
4
Draws
5
Toluca
  • Sep 3, 26Toluca – Leon2-0
  • Apr 26, 26Toluca – Leon4-1
  • Oct 5, 25Leon – Toluca2-4
  • Feb 9, 25Leon – Toluca3-3
  • Nov 2, 24Toluca – Leon2-2

Season Statistics — 2026

LeonToluca
Played1010
Goals Scored1423
Goals Conceded1112
Avg Scored1.42.3
Avg Conceded1.11.2
Clean Sheets34

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

LeonToluca
Over 2.5 Goals—5/10
Both Teams Scored—4/10
Clean Sheets—5/10

Predicted line-ups: Leon vs Toluca

Predicted XI

Leon

4-1-4-1Formation· Coach: E. Berizzo

Toluca

4-2-3-1Formation· Coach: R. La Volpe

  1. 12R. Beltrán
  1. 2D. Barbosa
  2. 4B. Méndez
  3. 17B. García
  4. 13Luan
  1. 20J. Gallardo
  2. 19S. Simón
  1. 10J. Angulo
  2. 8N. Castro
  3. 205E. Segura
  1. 198Jose Estrada
  1. 27D. Cambindo
  1. 13D. Arcila
  2. 6F. Beltran Cruz
  3. 20R. Echeverría
  4. 15S. Fierro
  1. 26S. Reyes
  1. 25P. Bellón
  2. 4B. Colula
  3. 3Juan José Guevara Possu
  4. 14J. Romaña
  1. 23Ó. García

Bench

  • 12J. González
  • 5S. Vegas
  • 33A. Villegas
  • 203J. Lara
  • 7I. Moreno
  • 19J. Alvarado
  • 16J. Cortizo

Bench

  • 22L. García
  • 6F. Pereira
  • 25E. López
  • 29J. Díaz
  • 15P. Pérez
  • 9A. Vega
  • 16F. Viñas

Predicted line-ups based on recent matches and absences; official line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Leon vs Toluca — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Toluca are favored at 48% to win away at Leon. The draw is rated 23% and the home win 29%, so the numbers side with the visitors.

Toluca arrive at the Estadio León as the clear favourites, backed by their commanding position at the top of the Liga MX standings and a statistical profile that outshines the hosts across almost every metric.…

Win Probabilities: Leon: 29% · Draw: 23% · Toluca: 48%

H2H: Leon wins: 1 · Draws: 4 · Toluca wins: 5

Form (latest first): Leon: DWDWL · Toluca: LDLWW

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Liga MX

Liga MX

Mexico15 · Upcoming Fixtures
Liga MXMexico
Necaxa
Oct 1701:00
Atlas
13.7027%
X3.0333%
22.5040%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Club Tijuana
Oct 1703:00
Puebla
11.9651%
X3.8526%
24.3523%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Atlante FC
Oct 1703:00
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
12.5040%
X3.4529%
23.2331%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Santos Laguna
Oct 1723:00
Club Queretaro
12.5040%
X3.5728%
23.1332%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Guadalajara Chivas
Oct 1723:07
Tigres UANL
12.1347%
X3.5728%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Toluca
Oct 1801:00
Atletico San Luis
11.4768%
X4.7621%
29.0911%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Leon
Oct 1801:00
Club America
13.3330%
X3.7027%
22.3343%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Cruz Azul
Oct 1803:00
FC Juarez
11.4569%
X4.7621%
210.0010%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Monterrey
Oct 1901:00
CF Pachuca
11.9651%
X4.1724%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Guadalajara Chivas
Oct 2100:07
Necaxa
Early projection
11.3276%
X7.1414%
210.0010%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
FC Juarez
Oct 2101:00
Atlante FC
Early projection
13.5728%
X4.3523%
22.0449%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Atletico San Luis
Oct 2101:00
Club Queretaro
Early projection
13.5728%
X4.1724%
22.0848%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Tigres UANL
Oct 2103:00
Leon
Early projection
13.5728%
X4.3523%
22.0449%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Toluca
Oct 2201:00
Club Tijuana
Early projection
11.6760%
X5.2619%
24.7621%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
Liga MXMexico
Atlas
Oct 2201:00
Club America
Early projection
13.4529%
X4.1724%
22.1347%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access

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